addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans

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Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAstransportation infrastructure. At one extreme, more frequent precipitationchanges are likely to affect the flooding of tunnels, coastal highways, airportrunways, and railways, as well as more frequent landslides. At the otherextreme, they could increase the chance of drought and wildfires that couldrequire more frequent repair and maintenance. For transportation in California,sea-level rise is a particularly critical climate stressor. A study by the PacificInstitute estimates that a 1.4-meter, projected sea-level rise places coastalproperty at risk in the order of $100 billion (Heberger et al., 2009). A substantialamount of ground transportation infrastructure, including 2,500 miles of roadsand railroads, is projected to be at a growing risk from storm-related coastalflooding due to accelerated sea-level rise (Heberger et al., 2009).2.2 REASONS FOR CALIFORNIA MPOS AND RTPASTO BE PROACTIVEClimate factors are likely to affect decisions in every phase of the transportationmanagement process: from long-range planning and investment; throughproject design and construction; to management and operations of theinfrastructure; and system evaluation. California MPOs and RTPAs will have toface increasing uncertainty in the upcoming years – uncertainty from climatechange predictions, uncertainty in the ways that climate will affect the activitiesof their operations, and uncertainty in the performance of their assets. Thus, it isimportant to start thinking and planning for climate change adaptation.Planning for the future can benefit the present. MPOs and RTPAs may findthat projected climate change impacts are more extreme versions of climatevariability and extreme climate events they are facing today. Planning forthese events, such as sea-level rise combined with storm surge, may require abetter understanding of the role of transportation to emergency response andevacuation. If alternate routes to highways in low-lying coastal areas aremapped out, they can provide a blueprint for emergency planning andevacuation.Proactive planning can be more effective and less costly than respondingreactively to climate change impacts as they happen. Taking proactive stepscan save money. For instance, more frequent and intensive flooding couldrequire the reinforcement or armoring of infrastructure and port facilities,resulting in investments in maintenance that extend service life and canrequire less total cost over the infrastructure lifetime.Thinking strategically can reduce future risks. MPOs and RTPAs can createopportunities for modifying present-day policies and practices that canensure resiliency to climate change. For example, zoning that concentratesdevelopment in an area at risk to future sea-level rise and coastal floodingcan be altered before that area is built out. Some MPOs have already begunto adopt more flexible, scenario-based approaches in developing their long-2-2 Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsrange transportation investment plans. Scenario planning could be adaptedto take potential climate changes into account in the development of futureregional transportation plans. Planners can include climate change scenariosin projections of current development patterns and supporting transportationinfrastructure on maps by showing current elevations and expected sea-levelrise. This overlay could illustrate the increased risks of allowinguncontrolled development in vulnerable coastal areas and the desirability ofmanaged growth policies and protection of critical infrastructure.Thinking strategically can increase future benefits. Being proactive cancreate opportunities to capitalize on some benefits to climate change forMPOs/RTPAs. Warmer winter temperatures can lead to cost savings fromreduced winter road maintenance requirements and a longer constructionseason, for example.2.3 HOW CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CAN BECONSIDERED IN REGIONAL TRANSPORTATIONPLANNINGClimate Adaptation in Regional PlanningThe long‐range planning process provides anopportunity incorporate climate changeconsiderations into existing decision‐makingframeworks. For example, the BostonRegion MPO is conducting hazard mappingto identify areas where transportationinfrastructure may be vulnerable to naturalhazards and to inform the securityevaluation of proposed transportationprojects.The MPO has an interactive web tool(www.bostonmpo.org/hazards) that mapsthe transportation network, natural floodzones, bridge condition, emergency routes,and emergency support facilities. The toollinks to the MPO’s database ofTransportation Improvement Program (TIP)projects, and can be used to determinewhether proposed projects are located inareas exposed to flooding, storm surge, orsea level rise.Source: FHWA, 2012.The uncertainties inherent in projecting long-termclimate changes – coupled with the long service lifeof most transportation infrastructure – present acomplex challenge for transportation decisionmaking. Because today’s transportation networklikely will be in place for decades to come,investment and design decisions made today needto consider potential changes in climate conditionsyears in the future: 30, 50, and sometimes100 years or more from now, shown in Figure 2.1.The prioritization process for transportationinvestments needs to consider not only thepotential intensity of climate impacts, but thecondition and vulnerability of existing facilitiesand the relative importance of those facilities tooverall system performance. By weighing all ofthese factors, transportation managers can directresources to the most necessary and cost-effectiveactions.Effective adaptation requires an ongoing, iterativeprocess of risk and vulnerability assessment,adaptation action, performance assessment,monitoring, and continuing adaptation, shown inFigure 2.2. This process requires a range oftechnical skills, quality data sources, andCambridge Systematics, Inc. 2-3
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appendix b reportState-of-the-Pract
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State-of-the-Practice Climate Chang
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C A L I F O R N I AADAPTATIONPLANNI
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Adaptation Planning Guide - Advisor
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List of Tables (cont’d.)Table 6.
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Climate Impact RegionsThe APG is or
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APGSTART HERE:PLANNING FOR ADAPTIVE
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What are the designated climate imp
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CA Climate Adaptation Planning Guid
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• Selected Demographic Data. Sele
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 1. Summa
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Selected Infrastructure and Regiona
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illnesses due to air pollution resu
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Additional Resources• Sea level r
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 5. Summa
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frequency can harm forests. Large i
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Bay Area RegionCounties: Alameda, C
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the Sacramento and San Joaquin rive
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Table 12. Selected Population Data
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Sea level rise is also expected to
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Additional Resources• Public Heal
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 13. Summ
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Table 16. Selected Population Data
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As with crops, climate change impac
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Additional Resources• Wildfire Re
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elevations, increased static levee
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The ecosystem functions of the Delt
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Setting and HistoryThe California D
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The islands in the lower Bay-Delta
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Some of the questions that should b
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Southern Central Valley RegionCount
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe west
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The crops produced are varied and i
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Communities in this region should e
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have the resources to prepare for,
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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Timber practices have also had ecos
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Southeast Sierra RegionCounties: Al
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe sout
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ultimately result in reduced water
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particular concern are populations
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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industry around Big Bear. As there
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California Natural Resources Agency
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