addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans
addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans
Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 41. Summary of Cal-Adapt Climate Projections for the Desert RegionEffectTemperatureChange,1990-2100PrecipitationHeat WaveSnowpackWildfire RiskRangesJanuary increase in average temperatures: 2°F to 4°F by 2050 and 5°F to 8°F by 2100July increase in average temperatures: 3°F to 5°F by 2050 and 6°F to 9°F by 2100(Modeled high temperatures; high carbon emissions scenario)Generally, annual rainfall will decrease in the most populous areas. Wetter areaslike the western part of Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino countieswill experience a 2 to 4 inch decline by 2050 and 3.5 to 6 inch decline by theend of the century. Big Bear is expected to lose around 8 inches per year by2090. Southern Imperial County will have a small decline of about 0.5 inches. Theeastern, desert portion of the region will see little to no change in annual rainfall.(CCSM3 climate model; high carbon emissions scenario)Heat waves are defined by five consecutive days over temperatures in the 100s over mostof the region. Three to five more heat waves will be experienced by 2050, increasing to 12to 16 in the western parts of the region to more than 18 to 20 in the eastern parts of theregion.March snowpack in the Big Bear area will diminish from the 2.5-inch level of 2010 to 1.4 inches in 2030 and almost zero by 2090.(CCSM3 climate model; high emissions scenario)Most areas are projected to have the same or slightly increased likelihoodof wildfire risk. The major exceptions are the Mecca San Gorgonio andSan Jacinto Mountains, where wildfire will be 1.5 and 2.0 times more likely.(GFDL model, high carbon emissions scenario)[Public Interest Energy Research, 2011. Cal-Adapt. Retrieved from http://cal-adapt.org]Water SourcesWater for most of the Desert region is supplied primarily from the State WaterProject, the Colorado River, and local groundwater. The less-populated easternpart of the region uses approximately 4.5 million acre-feet of water annually.Nearly 4 million acre-feet come from the Colorado River, while almost 0.5million acre-feet are supplied from the State Water Project and groundwater.Usage is split between agriculture, at nearly 4 million acre-feet, and urbanconsumption, at approximately 0.5 million acre-feet. Storage capacity in theregion’s reservoirs totals 0.62 million acre-feet (DWR, 2009).Note: The State of California measures water supply/usage for the populouswestern Riverside County and southwestern San Bernardino County as part ofthe South Coast hydrologic region, which also includes Los Angeles, San Diego,Orange, and Ventura counties. Please see the South Coast region summary formore information.PAGE 94APG: UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
Biophysical CharacteristicsThe Mojave and Colorado deserts dominate the geography of the Desert region.These hot, arid lands lie east of the San Bernardino and San Jacinto mountains.The Colorado Desert is low-lying, below 1,000 feet in elevation, and is hometo desert scrub, palm oasis, and desert wash. Native birds and animals includemuskrats, mule deer, coyotes, bobcats, and the Yuma antelope ground squirrel(State of California, 2005a). The Salton Sea, a saltwater lake and the largest lakein California, is situated in the middle of the Colorado Desert. Both northwestand south of the Salton Sea are large agricultural areas irrigated by the ColoradoRiver. The vast majority of the population inhabits the western edge of theregion, particularly along the Santa Ana River, in the valley between the SanGabriel, San Bernardino, San Jacinto, and Santa Ana mountains (State of California,2005a).By contrast, most of the Mojave region is uninhabited and is owned and managedby the United States Bureau of Land Management. Plant species include desertwash and scrub, alkali and Joshua tree scrub, and palm oasis. Native and rareanimals include bighorn sheep, desert tortoise, prairie falcon, and the Mojaveground squirrel. The natural recreational attractions for the region includethe Salton Sea, the Picacho State Park along the Colorado River at the Arizonaborder, and Joshua Tree National Park (State of California, 2009).Regional Entities• Air Districts: Imperial, Mojave Desert, South Coast• Regional Organizations: Imperial Valley Association of Governments,Riverside County Transportation Commission, San Bernardino AssociatedGovernments, San Bernardino County Transportation Commission, SouthernCalifornia Association of Governments, Western Riverside Council ofGovernments• Tribal Lands (U.S. EPA, 2011): Agua Caliente, Augustine, Cabazon, Cahuila,Chemehuevi, Colorado River, Fort Mojave, Morongo, Pechanga, Quechan,Ramona, San Manuel, Santa Rosa, Soboba, Torres-Martinez, Twenty-NinePalmsAPG: UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS PAGE 95
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe Mojave and Colorado deserts dom<strong>in</strong>ate the geography of the Desert region.These hot, arid lands lie east of the San Bernard<strong>in</strong>o and San Jac<strong>in</strong>to mounta<strong>in</strong>s.The Colorado Desert is low-ly<strong>in</strong>g, below 1,000 feet <strong>in</strong> elevation, and is hometo desert scrub, palm oasis, and desert wash. Native birds and animals <strong>in</strong>cludemuskrats, mule deer, coyotes, bobcats, and the Yuma antelope ground squirrel(State of California, 2005a). The Salton Sea, a saltwater lake and the largest lake<strong>in</strong> California, is situated <strong>in</strong> the middle of the Colorado Desert. Both northwestand south of the Salton Sea are large agricultural areas irrigated by the ColoradoRiver. The vast majority of the population <strong>in</strong>habits the western edge of theregion, particularly along the Santa Ana River, <strong>in</strong> the valley between the SanGabriel, San Bernard<strong>in</strong>o, San Jac<strong>in</strong>to, and Santa Ana mounta<strong>in</strong>s (State of California,2005a).By contrast, most of the Mojave region is un<strong>in</strong>habited and is owned and managedby the United States Bureau of Land Management. Plant species <strong>in</strong>clude desertwash and scrub, alkali and Joshua tree scrub, and palm oasis. Native and rareanimals <strong>in</strong>clude bighorn sheep, desert tortoise, prairie falcon, and the Mojaveground squirrel. The natural recreational attractions for the region <strong>in</strong>cludethe Salton Sea, the Picacho State Park along the Colorado River at the Arizonaborder, and Joshua Tree National Park (State of California, 2009).Regional Entities• Air Districts: Imperial, Mojave Desert, South Coast• Regional Organizations: Imperial Valley Association of Governments,Riverside County Transportation Commission, San Bernard<strong>in</strong>o AssociatedGovernments, San Bernard<strong>in</strong>o County Transportation Commission, SouthernCalifornia Association of Governments, Western Riverside Council ofGovernments• Tribal Lands (U.S. EPA, 2011): Agua Caliente, August<strong>in</strong>e, Cabazon, Cahuila,Chemehuevi, Colorado River, Fort Mojave, Morongo, Pechanga, Quechan,Ramona, San Manuel, Santa Rosa, Soboba, Torres-Mart<strong>in</strong>ez, Twenty-N<strong>in</strong>ePalmsAPG: UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS PAGE 95
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