addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans
addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans
elevations, increased static levee loading, and higher levee vulnerability.In the Bay-Delta region, communities will need to assess vulnerability to thefollowing impacts:• Temperature increases• Reduced precipitation• Sea level rise• Flooding – increased flows in areas below sea level, exacerbated by leveefailure• Reduced agricultural productivity• Reduced water supply• Public health – heat & air pollution• Decline in Biodiversity - erosion of riparian habitatsCal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 17. Summary of Cal-Adapt Climate Projections for the Bay-Delta RegionEffectTemperatureChange, 1990-2100PrecipitationRangesJanuary increase in average temperatures: 3°F to 4°F by 2050 and 6°F to 7°F by 2100.July increase in average temperatures: 3°F to 5°F by 2050 and 7° to 9°F by 2100(Modeled high temperatures; average of all models; high carbon emissions scenario)Precipitation across the region is projected to decline by approximately 3 to 5 inches.The most dramatic decline of 5 inches is projected around Richmond, while most otherareas are projected to experience a decline of 4 inches, although Stockton may onlyexperience a 3-inch decline in precipitation.(CCSM3 climate model; high carbon emissions scenario)Sea Level RiseThe portions of the region close to San Francisco Bay are projected to be increasinglysusceptible to 1.4-meter sea level rise. Solano County is anticipated to experience a 13%increase in estimated acreage of land vulnerable to a 100-year flood event. This indicatorrises to 40% in Contra Costa County and 59% in Sacramento County. Most flooding isprojected to occur in areas around Suisun City, Pittsburg, Benicia, Richmond, and Vallejo.Heat WaveWildfire RiskHeat wave is defined as five days above 97°F to 100°F. There is projected to be four moreheat waves per year by 2050 and eight to ten by 2100.Portions of western and northern Yolo County, northwestern Solano County, southernContra Costa County, and eastern San Joaquin and Sacramento counties are projectedto experience limited increases in potential area burned by wildfire. There aremoderately high increases projected for the far eastern areas of San Joaquin County.(GFDL model, high carbon emissions scenario)[Public Interest Energy Research (2011). Cal-Adapt. Retrieved from: http://cal-adapt.org]APG: UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS PAGE 48
Water SourcesThe largest source of water for the Bay-Delta is the Sacramento River, which isfed by several major tributaries including the Pit River and Feather River, as wellas other water bodies within the Sacramento River watershed. In addition tothe 21 million acre-feet of water that the Sacramento River discharges to theBay-Delta, just over 3.9 million acre-feet of water flows into the Delta from theYolo Bypass, San Joaquin River, and other eastern rivers. Precipitation adds aboutanother 1 million acre-feet. A large amount of water in the Sacramento Riverwatershed is diverted and used before it reaches the Delta.Groundwater supplies are continually recharged because of flows in the channelsand the soft, deep soils of Delta islands. Groundwater levels fluctuate becauseof droughts, development, delivery of surface waters to the region, and periodsof extended wet weather (DWR, 2009, pg. D-14). The water table is relativelyshallow and groundwater levels in most basins have declined as a result ofagricultural and urban development. For example, the Eastern San JoaquinSubbasin has been in severe overdraft with significant land depressions east ofStockton and Lodi (DWR, 2009, pg. D-14).Groundwater supplies are threatened by climate change due to seawaterintrusion. In the Delta, groundwater supports agriculture. The contamination ofgroundwater is just one threat to the agriculture in the region.Biophysical CharacteristicsThe Bay-Delta region is a floodplain estuary that connects river to ocean andland to water. It was once a large marshland formed by the Sacramento and SanJoaquin rivers, but, as people began to settle in the area, the marsh was drainedand diked for flood control and land conversion to agriculture. More than 90percent of the marshland has been converted to farms or urban areas. Structureslike dams and levees in the Delta have also been detrimental to the migration ofspecies, such as the Chinook salmon (CDFG, 2007)Floodplain estuaries are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet,but the Delta has very low levels of primary productivity in the upper surfacewaters of both the Suisun Marsh and the Delta because of a variety of ecologicalstressors (CDFG, 2007). Wildlife and plant species have been subject to habitatloss, degradation, and fragmentation because of agriculture and urban landdevelopment, which has profoundly affected species’ ability to survive. The grizzlybear and gray wolf no longer reside in the Delta, but a population of tule elk hasbeen established in the Suisun Marsh. The Suisun Marsh is an important winteringand nesting area for waterfowl using the Pacific Flyway (DWR, 2009, pg. D-5-6).PAGE 49APG: UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
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elevations, <strong>in</strong>creased static levee load<strong>in</strong>g, and higher levee vulnerability.In the Bay-Delta region, communities will need to assess vulnerability to thefollow<strong>in</strong>g impacts:• Temperature <strong>in</strong>creases• Reduced precipitation• Sea level rise• Flood<strong>in</strong>g – <strong>in</strong>creased flows <strong>in</strong> areas below sea level, exacerbated by leveefailure• Reduced agricultural productivity• Reduced water supply• Public health – heat & air pollution• Decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> Biodiversity - erosion of riparian habitatsCal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 17. Summary of Cal-Adapt Climate Projections for the Bay-Delta RegionEffectTemperatureChange, 1990-2100PrecipitationRangesJanuary <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> average temperatures: 3°F to 4°F by 2050 and 6°F to 7°F by 2100.July <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> average temperatures: 3°F to 5°F by 2050 and 7° to 9°F by 2100(Modeled high temperatures; average of all models; high carbon emissions scenario)Precipitation across the region is projected to decl<strong>in</strong>e by approximately 3 to 5 <strong>in</strong>ches.The most dramatic decl<strong>in</strong>e of 5 <strong>in</strong>ches is projected around Richmond, while most otherareas are projected to experience a decl<strong>in</strong>e of 4 <strong>in</strong>ches, although Stockton may onlyexperience a 3-<strong>in</strong>ch decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> precipitation.(CCSM3 <strong>climate</strong> model; high carbon emissions scenario)Sea Level RiseThe portions of the region close to San Francisco Bay are projected to be <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>glysusceptible to 1.4-meter sea level rise. Solano County is anticipated to experience a 13%<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> estimated acreage of land vulnerable to a 100-year flood event. This <strong>in</strong>dicatorrises to 40% <strong>in</strong> Contra Costa County and 59% <strong>in</strong> Sacramento County. Most flood<strong>in</strong>g isprojected to occur <strong>in</strong> areas around Suisun City, Pittsburg, Benicia, Richmond, and Vallejo.Heat WaveWildfire RiskHeat wave is def<strong>in</strong>ed as five days above 97°F to 100°F. There is projected to be four moreheat waves per year by 2050 and eight to ten by 2100.Portions of western and northern Yolo County, northwestern Solano County, southernContra Costa County, and eastern San Joaqu<strong>in</strong> and Sacramento counties are projectedto experience limited <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> potential area burned by wildfire. There aremoderately high <strong>in</strong>creases projected for the far eastern areas of San Joaqu<strong>in</strong> County.(GFDL model, high carbon emissions scenario)[Public Interest Energy Research (2011). Cal-Adapt. Retrieved from: http://cal-adapt.org]APG: UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS PAGE 48
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