addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans

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State-of-the-Practice Climate Change Adaptation Activities for California MPOs and RTPAsAppendixoperations. The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the California Coast (Heberger et al.,2009) predicted that 2,500 miles of roads and rail will be affected by the year2100. Flooding can damage infrastructure such as tunnels, highways along thecoast, runways, and railways. Three airports in the San Francisco Bay area – SanFrancisco, Oakland, and San Jose – are all near sea level and based onprojections, will need to be relocated and protected from climate change eventsin order to remain functional. Damage to sea ports from sea level rise will havenegative economic effects as California’s seaports handle 40% of the country’sshipping volume. Moving the ports or implementing other protective measureswill be costly as well.Caltrans Guidance on Incorporating Sea Level RiseCaltrans produced Guidance on Incorporating Sea Level Rise (2011) for its planningstaff to help determine if sea level rise should be addressed in a particular projectand if so, how to incorporate it. It guides planners and project managers througha two-step process: the first step is to determine if the project will be affected bysea level rise; the second step balances sea level rise impacts with consequencesto the transportation system to determine if adaptation measures should beincluded in the project. This guidance document is intended to be updated asresearch on this emerging topic of climate change adaptation is released.Highlights of the guidance include a table of screening criteria that can be usedto determine whether or not adaptive measures are needed and the amount ofadditional funding needed to mitigate the risks. After consideration of allcriteria, the project manager would determine whether or not a project needs toincorporate sea level rise. If so, one should determine the expected magnitude ofthe impact and how to address impact by assessing alternatives.This document is especially relevant to transportation planning agencies inCalifornia because research has shown that future projected sea level risepresents a major threat to transportation infrastructure. EO S-13-08, signed in2008, mandates that state agencies planning projects in vulnerable areas considervarious sea level rise scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. This providesguidance specific to California as well.The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the California CoastSea level has risen over the past 100 years and projections indicate that it willcontinue to rise. The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the California Coast (Hebergeret al., 2009) projects what will happen if no actions are taken to address sea levelrise, with a focus on population, infrastructure and property. The State ofCalifornia created the climate change scenario for this report based onInternational Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios that assumed mediumto high levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the IPCC’s worst casescenario for sea level rise was not selected. The overarching finding is that thecoast will be affected dramatically by sea level rise.B-6 Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
State-of-the-Practice Climate Change Adaptation Activities for California MPOs and RTPAsAppendixFlooding and erosion will affect the transportation infrastructure greatly. It isprojected that the state will lose 41 square miles of California’s coast by 2100.The study noted specific facilities at risk. Under current conditions, 1,900 milesof roadways are at risk of flooding (given a 100-year event). In the event of a 1.4-meter sea level rise, 3,500 miles of roadways are at risk. Railways and ports arealso at risk, which can have major economic consequences, particularly in theSan Francisco Bay Area that depends largely upon manufacturing, freighttransportation, and warehouse/distribution services. Many California airportsare also vulnerable to flooding. While erosion may affect fewer total miles ofroadways and railways, the more concentrated damage from erosion can beworse than flooding effects and more permanent.The study concludes with a number of recommendations ranging from theinclusion of climate change in planning developments and communities, limitingdevelopment in certain areas, and working to prepare communities foremergencies. Additional research is also recommended. Finally, the studyrecommends that local and regional planning agencies undertake local studies todetermine specifically what the affects of climate change might be in theircommunities and how to prepare for them.1.3 OTHER STATE-LEVEL EFFORTSNew Jersey DOT and North Jersey Transportation PlanningAuthorityThe NJDOT/NJTPA project is assessing potential climate impacts from sea levelrise/storm surge, extreme temperatures and temperature ranges, extremeprecipitation and average precipitation levels, drought, and inland flooding in2050 and 2100. The project team is led by NJTPA, but includes New Jersey DOT,the state’s other two MPOs, NJ Transit, and the NJ Department of EnvironmentalProtection. Multi-modal assets, including roadways, bridges, rail and bustransit, maritime assets, airports, and wetlands, are being evaluated for two largestudy corridors (one primarily inland, one primarily coastal).The study employs a quantitative and qualitative destination-based criticalityassessment technique to determine which assets are evaluated for exposure,potential resiliency to climate stressors, and consequences of asset failure tosystem performance. This effort also includes an adaptation strategiescomponent.Virginia Department of TransportationThis pilot focuses on incorporating potential sea level rise into priority setting forlong-range transportation plans, in partnership with planning agencies for theHampton Roads area. The primary goal of this project team is the developmentof scenario analysis tools that help decision makers incorporate climate changeinto policy development. Virginia’s climate scenarios are integrated withCambridge Systematics, Inc. B-7
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 5. Summa
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Selected Infrastructure and Regiona
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frequency can harm forests. Large i
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Bay Area RegionCounties: Alameda, C
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the Sacramento and San Joaquin rive
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Table 12. Selected Population Data
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Sea level rise is also expected to
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Additional Resources• Public Heal
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 13. Summ
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Table 16. Selected Population Data
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As with crops, climate change impac
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Additional Resources• Wildfire Re
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elevations, increased static levee
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The ecosystem functions of the Delt
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Setting and HistoryThe California D
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The islands in the lower Bay-Delta
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Some of the questions that should b
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Southern Central Valley RegionCount
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe west
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The crops produced are varied and i
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Communities in this region should e
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have the resources to prepare for,
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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Timber practices have also had ecos
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Southeast Sierra RegionCounties: Al
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe sout
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ultimately result in reduced water
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particular concern are populations
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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industry around Big Bear. As there
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California Natural Resources Agency
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addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans

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