addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans

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Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsexpected volumes, for example) and many directly address the specificstresses of climate. The Caltrans Standard Specifications and HighwayDesign Manual are primary resources, to be supplemented withapplicable national (e.g., AASHTO) and local specifications or guidelines.c. Prior research. Several published or forthcoming resources addressvulnerability thresholds for transportation infrastructure, includingClimate Change Adaptation and the Highway System (NCHRP, forthcoming)and the FHWA Climate Change Pilot reports (2011, various authors).d. Informed hypotheses. The objective of the exposure exercise is to rapidlyidentify the basic potential for significant impacts, and then movequalifying assets into the risk assessment phase for further study. Thecreation of a nonstandard exposure threshold, either in the absence ofother guidance or to correspond with specific climate or transportationattribute data, is acceptable as long as doing so supports this objective.Hypothesized or proxy thresholds, especially those generatedcollaboratively by qualified professionals, can add value to theassessment process.The thresholds test supports the application of rules of thumb concerning thesusceptibility of assets or asset types to climate events of a given severity orfrequency in order to estimate the potential for climate impacts. Climate impactsare, in effect, the intermediaries between stressors and the expectedconsequences of extreme climate events, describing what might actually happento the asset. For instance, extreme rainfall is a stressor, whereas flooding is therelated impact from which consequences may stem directly (some impacts maybe 3 rd or even 4 th order effects of stressors). If it is known, or even estimated, thatthe one-percent chance rainfall is the threshold that leads to a specific impact ofconcern (e.g., flooding), then it may be assumed that the asset is both exposedand susceptible if the threshold is exceeded.Consider a sample asset/stressor pairing, a scour critical bridge and extremerainfall. The rainfall event itself may not detrimental to the bridge, but intenserainfall may concentrate as runoff, engorge a nearby river or stream, increase theflow rate, and thereby promote scour – the climate impact. The same scenariocould also lead to inundation of the bridge’s approaches – another climateimpact. Some climate impact pathways will be simpler – high ambienttemperatures can lead to extreme surface temperatures, which, depending on thesurface, leads to rutting or detrimental expansion. This is where conditioninformation can be factored in at a systems level, if applicable, to help establishsusceptibility.In many instances, it will be preferable to combine the geospatial and thresholdtests. Flooding, for example, is geospatial, but mapped floodplains or hazardareas typically correspond to a threshold event – for example the 100-year (onepercentchance) flood. In turn, some transportation infrastructure, such asculverts, is typically sized for specific design events – again, often the one-11-6 Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAspercent chance runoff event (or, for higher importance facilities, more commonevents). Similarly, coastal flooding hazards are also commonly linked to specificstorm surge events.Although the potential likelihood of impacts is considered in depth later in thismodule, it may be appropriate to consider this as part of the exposure analysis aswell (as a sort of pre-screening). Flooding event thresholds, for example, alreadyexplicitly consider statistically-derived estimates of probability (e.g., the 100-yearrecurrence event is considered to have a one-percent average annual occurrenceprobability). For extreme temperatures, almost every region in Californiaexperiences a 95°F day at least occasionally, but an isolated 95°F event may notconstitute a significant threat. Instead, a certain frequency of this event (e.g.,x days annually) may constitute a more relevant threshold.Both types of exposure tests are supported by the data collected in 2a (AssetInventory) and 2b (Climate Stressors) for some stressor/asset combinations.Module 2a contains guidance on collecting data on the location and associatedattributes of a variety of multimodal infrastructure, while Module 2b containsguidance on sourcing projections for commonly recognized extreme weatherthresholds.Figure 11.3 shows how climate and transportation layers combine to provide athreshold analysis of the number of railroad bridges exposed in areas wherethere are high heat days. In this example, there are numerous railroad bridges inthe State highlighted in green. Some of these railroad bridges fall in atemperature zone that will have a large number of days above 95 degrees in2100. Since this is the threshold where rail bridges may be affected, thisinformation may provide insights to transportation planners and engineers onwhether adaptation strategies should be employed.Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 11-7
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Adaptation Planning Guide - Advisor
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List of Tables (cont’d.)Table 6.
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Climate Impact RegionsThe APG is or
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APGSTART HERE:PLANNING FOR ADAPTIVE
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What are the designated climate imp
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CA Climate Adaptation Planning Guid
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• Selected Demographic Data. Sele
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 1. Summa
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Selected Infrastructure and Regiona
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illnesses due to air pollution resu
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Additional Resources• Sea level r
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 5. Summa
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frequency can harm forests. Large i
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Bay Area RegionCounties: Alameda, C
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the Sacramento and San Joaquin rive
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Table 12. Selected Population Data
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Sea level rise is also expected to
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Additional Resources• Public Heal
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 13. Summ
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Table 16. Selected Population Data
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As with crops, climate change impac
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Additional Resources• Wildfire Re
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elevations, increased static levee
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The ecosystem functions of the Delt
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Setting and HistoryThe California D
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The islands in the lower Bay-Delta
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Some of the questions that should b
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Southern Central Valley RegionCount
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe west
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The crops produced are varied and i
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Communities in this region should e
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have the resources to prepare for,
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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Timber practices have also had ecos
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Southeast Sierra RegionCounties: Al
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe sout
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ultimately result in reduced water
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particular concern are populations
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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industry around Big Bear. As there
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California Natural Resources Agency
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