addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans

Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAs11.0 Module 3: ConductVulnerability and RiskAssessment11.1 THE VALUE OF UNDERSTANDING YOURVULNERABILITIES AND RISKSModule 3 provides guidance to help MPOs and RTPAs of various sizes andcapacities in performing a basic vulnerability and risk assessment of criticaltransportation assets. Together, the recommended steps help agencies derive ameasure of integrated risk for transportation assets potentially impacted byclimate change. If these risks exceed the agency’s tolerance for risk, then theassociated infrastructure should be prioritized for adaptation. The expectedoutcome of this exercise is a shortlist of priority transportation assets which areboth critical and potentially vulnerable (to climate hazards) for consideration inthe subsequent Module 4, “Develop Adaptation Strategies.”This module is formulated to leverage the information developed during the twoprevious modules (Module 2a and Module 2b). At its most basic level, a climatechange vulnerability and risk assessment requires two categories of information:1. Multidimensional information on the transportation infrastructure andfacilities anticipated to be in service during the assessment timeframe. (Thiswill include a substantial selection of current assets, as well as programmedor planned projects.)2. Estimations of potential future climate conditions.The approach suggested by this module describes a sketch-level assessment –performed with systems data (such as data layers downloaded from the CaltransGIS Data Library) and using rules of thumb to consider vulnerability and risk –in order to rapidly screen down the selection of assets that are advanced to thesubsequent adaptation module. Module 4 integrates an approach for morerobust, specific, and temporally-oriented risk assessments leading to thegeneration and prioritization of adaptation strategies, but is likely too time anddata intensive for application to all critical assets.Figure 11.1 provides a step-by-step illustration of the primary elements of thevulnerability and risk assessment.Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 11-1