addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans

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Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsInterpreting and Using Extreme Temperature DataAs an example of evaluating extreme temperature data Figure 10.2 containsgeospatial and tabular data representing the geographic distribution of days per yearexceeding 95°F under present conditions (30‐year annual average from 1970 to1999), and three future periods: 2010 to 2039, 2040 to 2069, and 2070 to 2099. Thegraphic includes data for both A2 and B1 emissions scenarios, and represents anaverage of data from six GCMs. This information was computed using dailytemperature data from downscaled GCM output downloaded from the CMIP3 publicarchive (http://gdo‐dcp.ucllnl.org/). Extreme temperature information can be viewedin a similar layout on the Cal‐Adapt website (http://cal‐adapt.org/). For thegeospatial map data shown in the figure, the annual number of days exceeding theextreme temperature threshold was tabulated and averaged for the 30‐year periodsrepresenting present and future conditions. The procedure depicted in Figure 10.2was repeated for each grid cell to generate a map of extreme heat days for futureconditions.Figure 10.2 Geospatial Layers Created on Temperature DataSource: ESA PWA, 2012.Note:The data used to generate this figure was retrieved from the CMIP3 archive on 8/9/2011. A technicalsummary of the data sources and computational methods applied for generating the climate data can berequested separately through Caltrans.Extreme Precipitation ThresholdA useful indicator for evaluating impacts to transportation infrastructure fromprojected changes in precipitation is the return frequency of today’s 100-year(one-percent chance) rainfall event. Design guidance for transportation drainageoften mandates or advises providing adequate capacity to manage the 100-yearstorm. Under the influence of climate change, the absolute amount of rainfallcorrelated with today’s 100-year event may recur with greater frequency in thefuture. Evaluating the range of potential rainfall totals corresponding to theprojected 100-year rainfall event can be useful for understanding the degree ofchange in precipitation that will need to be accommodated in the drainage10-6 Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsdesign for a region being analyzed and will aid in considering adaptationstrategies in the face of anticipated changes.Interpreting and Using Extreme Precipitation DataAdditional processing will be required to evaluate rainfall return frequency usingavailable climate data. As an example of evaluating the projected trends in extremeprecipitation conditions, Figure 10.3 shows 100‐year rainfall depths spatiallydistributed over California for present conditions (30‐year annual average from 1970to 1999) and three future timeframes (2010 to 2039, 2040 to 2069, and 2070 to2099) under A2 and B1 emissions scenarios. Present conditions 100‐year rainfalldepths were downloaded from the NOAA Atlas 14 database(http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/). For future conditions, the extremeprecipitation data was derived from geospatial grids of projected daily rainfall totalsfrom 1950 to 2100 downloaded from the CMIP3 public archive (http://gdodcp.ucllnl.org/).The 100‐year rainfall was estimated by fitting a return frequencycurve to the downscaled rainfall data as shown in the graphic below. The proceduredepicted in Figure 10.3 was repeated for each grid cell to generate a map of 100‐yearrainfall depths for future conditions.Figure 10.3 Geospatial Layers Created on Precipitation DataSource: ESA PWA, 2012.Note:The data used to generate this figure was retrieved from the CMIP3 archive on 8/9/2011. A technicalsummary of the data sources and computational methods applied for generating the climate data can berequested separately through Caltrans.Sea-Level Rise and Coastal ErosionAs the century progresses, the extent and severity of sea-level rise, coastalflooding, and shoreline erosion are expected to increasingly affect transportationinfrastructure. As part of a study on infrastructure vulnerability along theCalifornia coast, PWA (2009) conducted technical analyses with the ultimate goalof mapping the inundation extents for a 100-year coastal flood event andpotential coastal dune and cliff erosion incurred by sea-level rise. This analysisCambridge Systematics, Inc. 10-7
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State-of-the-Practice Climate Chang
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C A L I F O R N I AADAPTATIONPLANNI
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Adaptation Planning Guide - Advisor
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List of Tables (cont’d.)Table 6.
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Climate Impact RegionsThe APG is or
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APGSTART HERE:PLANNING FOR ADAPTIVE
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What are the designated climate imp
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CA Climate Adaptation Planning Guid
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• Selected Demographic Data. Sele
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 1. Summa
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Selected Infrastructure and Regiona
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illnesses due to air pollution resu
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Additional Resources• Sea level r
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 5. Summa
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frequency can harm forests. Large i
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Bay Area RegionCounties: Alameda, C
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the Sacramento and San Joaquin rive
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Table 12. Selected Population Data
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Sea level rise is also expected to
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Additional Resources• Public Heal
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 13. Summ
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Table 16. Selected Population Data
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As with crops, climate change impac
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Additional Resources• Wildfire Re
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elevations, increased static levee
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The ecosystem functions of the Delt
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Setting and HistoryThe California D
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The islands in the lower Bay-Delta
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Some of the questions that should b
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Southern Central Valley RegionCount
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe west
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The crops produced are varied and i
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Communities in this region should e
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have the resources to prepare for,
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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Timber practices have also had ecos
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Southeast Sierra RegionCounties: Al
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe sout
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ultimately result in reduced water
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particular concern are populations
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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industry around Big Bear. As there
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California Natural Resources Agency
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