addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans

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Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsexample, bridges), or based on other criteria important to the region. The climatedata accompanying this report has been provided for the following periods:Present conditions. Climate information for present conditions refers to datareflecting the current status of a given climate stressor. Data for presentconditions will be used as the baseline to which future time horizons arecompared and the magnitude of change will be ascertained. Typically,present conditions stressor levels are calculated as historic average overmultiple years (i.e., 1970-1999).Future conditions. Future climate projections are often averaged overmultiple years to reduce the spread of year-to-year variability and reflect thegeneral trend of expected changes. Typically, projection periods are dividedinto equal intervals for climate trend averaging such as decadal averages or30-year averages. As such, the climate conditions for future analysis yearsshould represent an average of the climate trend over a period of severalyears around the time period selected.Identify Stressor Types and ThresholdsIn this context, the term “climate stressors” refers to climate conditions that posepotential hazards to transportation assets, many of which are projected toincrease in frequency or severity in the future. Examples of climate stressorsinclude temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise. Geospatial climatedatasets can be used to aid in characterizing the magnitude of change in thesestressors, enabling an analysis of the vulnerability of critical transportation assetsto these changes. Potential stressor impacts on transportation assets mayinclude:Temperature. A primary variable affecting transportation asset vulnerabilityis the average number of high heat days occurring within a given year. Forexample, exposure to high temperatures can degrade the material strength ofbinding materials in asphalt and may leave roads vulnerable to damage.Quantifying the number of heat days in a given region under existing andfuture conditions will aid in identifying the regions and assets most likely tobe impacted by rising temperatures.Precipitation. Design of drainage capacity for transportation assets relies onknowledge of return periods for rainfall and streamflow conditionsestablished over years of historical measured data. Climate projectionsindicate that extreme precipitation events are likely to increase in frequencyand severity, which may alter the expected return period of a given rainfalldepth or streamflow peak. Knowledge of expected changes in precipitation,and associated hydrologic variables including snowpack, runoff, andbaseflow, will be critical for evaluating the vulnerability of drainage systemsfor various transportation assets.Sea-Level Rise. Impacts to transportation assets from extreme tide levels,exacerbated by net increases in sea level, include the increased frequency,extent, and depth of inundation. Sea-level rise is also expected to increase the10-4 Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsrisk of coastal erosion, the effects of which may be further intensified bycoastal storms. Understanding projected levels of inundation and patterns oferosion will be necessary for characterizing infrastructure vulnerability incoastal areas.When selecting a climate stressor or set of stressors it is important to identifythresholds that relate to transportation asset vulnerability. As noted previously,climate stressors include temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise.Thresholds indicate points at which the risk of damage, deterioration, ordisruption of infrastructure caused by a given stressor becomes a significantconcern (such as temperatures exceeding 95°F for railroad track kinking). Thethresholds focused on in this document include average annual extremetemperature days, the future magnitude of the 24-hour, 100-year (one-percentchance) precipitation event, and the inland inundation extents and erosionhazard zones under a 100-year coastal flood event with sea-level rise. There aremany climate stressors, and potentially multiple thresholds for each stressor, thatmay impact a given asset or asset class.Extreme Temperature ThresholdFor the purposes of this document, the extreme temperature threshold is definedas a day in which the maximum air temperature exceeds 95°F. The extremetemperature threshold will vary regionally according to present day conditions.Although precisely and directly correlating non-spatial climate variables such asextreme temperatures is impossible, we can assume infrastructure vulnerabilitywill increase as climate variables exceed critical thresholds more frequentlyand/or occur with greater intensity. For instance, failure or degradation topavement can occur well before or well beyond this 95°F threshold condition,and it is highly dependent on other circumstances such as maintenance andupkeep of the asset. Another example is the kinking of railroad track, forexample, which may occur at temperatures exceeding 95°F – but does not alwaysand will not affect every type or segment of track equally. The number of daysexceeding 95°F in a given year was selected based on interviews conducted withengineers from various state transportation departments and transit agencies as auseful rule of thumb threshold for climate assessment.Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 10-5
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appendix b reportState-of-the-Pract
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State-of-the-Practice Climate Chang
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C A L I F O R N I AADAPTATIONPLANNI
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Adaptation Planning Guide - Advisor
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List of Tables (cont’d.)Table 6.
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Climate Impact RegionsThe APG is or
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APGSTART HERE:PLANNING FOR ADAPTIVE
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What are the designated climate imp
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CA Climate Adaptation Planning Guid
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• Selected Demographic Data. Sele
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 1. Summa
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Selected Infrastructure and Regiona
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illnesses due to air pollution resu
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Additional Resources• Sea level r
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 5. Summa
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frequency can harm forests. Large i
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Bay Area RegionCounties: Alameda, C
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the Sacramento and San Joaquin rive
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Table 12. Selected Population Data
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Sea level rise is also expected to
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Additional Resources• Public Heal
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Cal-Adapt ProjectionsTable 13. Summ
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Table 16. Selected Population Data
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As with crops, climate change impac
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Additional Resources• Wildfire Re
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elevations, increased static levee
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The ecosystem functions of the Delt
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Setting and HistoryThe California D
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The islands in the lower Bay-Delta
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Some of the questions that should b
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Southern Central Valley RegionCount
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe west
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The crops produced are varied and i
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Communities in this region should e
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have the resources to prepare for,
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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Timber practices have also had ecos
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Southeast Sierra RegionCounties: Al
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Biophysical CharacteristicsThe sout
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ultimately result in reduced water
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particular concern are populations
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Additional Resources• Sea Level R
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industry around Big Bear. As there
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California Natural Resources Agency
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