N° 2005-09 Juin 2005 Guillaume Daudin* Jean-Luc Gaffard ...
N° 2005-09 Juin 2005 Guillaume Daudin* Jean-Luc Gaffard ... N° 2005-09 Juin 2005 Guillaume Daudin* Jean-Luc Gaffard ...
Offshore Relocations and Emerging Countries’ Competition: Measuring the Effect on French Employmentemployment. Third, different sectors are unevenly affected by international trade. Most lossesare concentrated in traditional industries (shoes and hosiery) and some in natural-resourcesintensive industries. That seems to suggest that, even if the net impact of international tradeon French labour is positive in the long-run, temporary job losses can occur following an"openness" shock with developing countries, as in 1987 15 .Only three studies compute the specific effect of trade with developing countries —with different definitions of these countries. They suggest this trade caused 150,000 to330,000 job losses. However, these results need to be confirmed by more robust methods.This can be done either in a empirical way or a theoretical way.2.2.Theoretical modelsIt is possible to build models taking into account all the different effects that make asimple job content evaluation unreliable. We know of two examples in the case of France,reported in table 7.Table 8: Studies using modelsSource Data Methodology Estimation ResultsMathieu and Sterdyniak(1994)Jean (1999),p. 154-155*France1973-1991France1977-1993Macroeconomic model for generalequilibrium effects. Alternativescenario: developing Asia growth atthe same speed than the OECDComputable General EquilibriumModel taking into account North-South trade, technical progress andqualification development in thepopulationRole of trade withdeveloping Asia on thedevelopment ofunemploymentRole of the increase ofFrench trade from 1977to 1993 onunemployment* See also : Jean (2001), p. 13, Jean and Bontout (1999), Cortes and Jean (1997a), Jean (2002).+0.5/+0.6 pointof unemployment+ 2 pointsof unemploymentTrade with the South :< +1 pointIt is worth mentioning that, despite the differences in methods, both studies find similarorders of magnitude for the effect of trade with developing countries on unemployment: a riseof at least 150,000 and probably at most 300,000.15 The share of developing countries in world trade doubled from 1987 to 1997.20
Guillaume Daudin and Sandrine Levasseur2.3. Econometric studiesAnother approach is mainly empirical 16 . Three main factors can explain employmentchanges — either the decrease of the share of industrial production in total employment or ofthe share of unskilled workers in total employment — in developed countries: (1) thetechnical progress; (2) changes in demand and (3) international trade. Econometrical studiespresented in table 8 try to isolate the true impact of international trade, including outsourcingactivities, on employment. To analyse the different causes, the assumptions are thattechnological progress explains the shifts of labour demand towards skilled workers withinindustries; changes in domestic demand explain the shifts of labour demand towards skilledworkers between industries; and finally, international trade is assumed to be detrimental tounskilled workers as soon as France imports from developing countries, where labour costsare lower. Controlling for internal factors allows for more accurate estimates of the trueimpact of external factors on French employment.Table 9: Studies using an econometric methodSource Data Methodology Estimation ResultsBazen and Cardebat (2001)Strauss-Kahn (2003)Boulhol (2004)France 1985, Econometric study per1989 and 1992 sectorFrance, 1977-1993.1970-2002 for16 OECDcountries(includingFrance)Econometric study persectorEconometric study,including GDP/head;(GDP/head)^2;Investment/GDP;Industrial tradebalance; firms’outsourcing rates.Role of international trade(measured as relativeimport prices) on relativeunskilled employmentRole of internationalvertical specialization(defined as the shareof imported inputs inproduction) in the declineof unskilled workers(in total manufacturingemployment)Role of emergingcountries’ industrialimports in the changeof the industrial shareof employment1985-1989: Trade => Decline inrelative unskilled employment, notwages1989-1992: Trade => Decline inrelative unskilled wages, notemploymentShare of imported inputs inproduction: from 9 % (in 1977) to14 % (in 1993)Shift away from unskilled labour :0.65-0.7 percentage points/year(0.5-0.6 for manufacturing sectors)Contribution of international verticalspecialisation in the decline ofunskilled workers in manufacturingemployment : 11-15 % over 1977-1985 and 25 % over 1985-1993.No break in the data.FMI method (Rowthorn andRamaswamy (1999)): 10 % for France(15 % for the averageOECD countries)New method (correction ofautocorrelation): 1.9 % for France(3.4 % for the average OECDcountries)16 We only mention here macro-econometric studies. To our knowledge, the only microeconometric study thatdoes compute a microeconomic, firm-level, effect of international trade on employment: Biscourp and Kramarz(2003).21
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- Page 27 and 28: II. OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING IN THE EU
- Page 29 and 30: Georges PujalsConcerning Europe, th
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- Page 37 and 38: Georges PujalsTable 3. Financial se
- Page 39 and 40: Georges PujalsOffshoring was initia
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- Page 45 and 46: Georges PujalsChart 11. Supervisors
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- Page 49 and 50: Georges PujalsMcKinsey Global Insti
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Offshore Relocations and Emerging Countries’ Competition: Measuring the Effect on French Employmentemployment. Third, different sectors are unevenly affected by international trade. Most lossesare concentrated in traditional industries (shoes and hosiery) and some in natural-resourcesintensive industries. That seems to suggest that, even if the net impact of international tradeon French labour is positive in the long-run, temporary job losses can occur following an"openness" shock with developing countries, as in 1987 15 .Only three studies compute the specific effect of trade with developing countries —with different definitions of these countries. They suggest this trade caused 150,000 to330,000 job losses. However, these results need to be confirmed by more robust methods.This can be done either in a empirical way or a theoretical way.2.2.Theoretical modelsIt is possible to build models taking into account all the different effects that make asimple job content evaluation unreliable. We know of two examples in the case of France,reported in table 7.Table 8: Studies using modelsSource Data Methodology Estimation ResultsMathieu and Sterdyniak(1994)<strong>Jean</strong> (1999),p. 154-155*France1973-1991France1977-1993Macroeconomic model for generalequilibrium effects. Alternativescenario: developing Asia growth atthe same speed than the OECDComputable General EquilibriumModel taking into account North-South trade, technical progress andqualification development in thepopulationRole of trade withdeveloping Asia on thedevelopment ofunemploymentRole of the increase ofFrench trade from 1977to 1993 onunemployment* See also : <strong>Jean</strong> (2001), p. 13, <strong>Jean</strong> and Bontout (1999), Cortes and <strong>Jean</strong> (1997a), <strong>Jean</strong> (2002).+0.5/+0.6 pointof unemployment+ 2 pointsof unemploymentTrade with the South :< +1 pointIt is worth mentioning that, despite the differences in methods, both studies find similarorders of magnitude for the effect of trade with developing countries on unemployment: a riseof at least 150,000 and probably at most 300,000.15 The share of developing countries in world trade doubled from 1987 to 1997.20
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