162Cairns: Eco-Ethics and Sustainability Ethicshuman population increase, species extinction, depletion of natural capital, ever increasing humanartifacts that displace natural systems, pollution) are that both natural systems and humankind mayreach a tipping point in the twenty-first century if present unsustainable practices continue. Cairns(2000) remarks that, in order to achieve sustainability, humankind must be at peace with naturalsystems (i.e. cease destroying them).A general principle of preserving natural systems is that maintenance is less environmentallycostly than rebuilding or new growth. Cities destroyed by war (e.g. as in World War II) require moreresources to rebuild than would have been used to maintain them. Similarly, a new growth forestrequires more energy for building new biomass than an old growth forest requires in maintainingitself. Moreover, cultural development occurs primarily when basic needs (e.g. food, shelter, healthcare, warmth) have already been met. Even education suffers when people must use all their energiesjust to survive. Social capital (e.g. sense of community) requires time, which is less availablewhen maintaining basic needs is a struggle. Cultural capital (e.g. museums, symphony orchestras,art galleries) can be badly damaged or destroyed by wars, either directly by explosives or indirectlyby looters, when the social contract (e.g. respecting cultural organizations) has broken down.The Athenian statesman Pericles praised the law that, although unwritten, was obeyed. Today,obeying such laws is called a social contract. At present, the intent to live sustainably and leave ahabitable planet for posterity is the ultimate social contract, which encompasses vast spatialdimensions (e.g. Earth) and vast temporal spans (e.g. indefinite use of the planet). Humankind mustreject short-term economic growth based on unsustainable practices in favour of sustainable practices,which should produce a habitable planet for posterity and reduce risks.RISKSIf humankind is worried about risks of terrorism-caused death, some comparative figures fromthe November/December 2002 issue of World Watch (p. 40) should be enlightening:In the United States:430 700 killed by cigarette smoking, per year, on average300 000 killed by obesity, per year, on average110 000 killed by alcohol abuse per year43 200 killed by motor vehicle accidents, per year, on average2000 killed by terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001.In other countries:2000 000 in Sudan: killed in the ongoing civil war1700 000 in Cambodia: killed by the Khmer Rouge massacre in 1975–781700 000 in Congo: killed in the ongoing war103 000 in Japan: killed by two atomic bombs dropped by US planes in 194520 000 in India: killed by the Bhopal chemical spill of 1985 and its aftermath.The purpose of this information is to show that a better perspective on risks is needed. For example,in the United States, one is far more likely to be killed by cigarette smoking or obesity than byterrorists. If the primary goal is to protect human life, citizens of the United States should concen-
Article 18163trate on cigarette smoking and obesity rather than terrorists. A person killed by cigarettes is just asdead as one killed by terrorists. The risks in many other countries are more severe; 2 million werekilled in the ongoing civil war in Sudan and 103 000 by two atomic bombs dropped by the UnitedStates on Japan in 1945, a one time event. Yet the latter has received far more attention. Even the20 000 deaths in India caused by the Bhopal chemical spill of 1985 and its aftermath received moreattention than the civil war in Sudan. The deaths of all humans killed before their normal life spanends are horrific, but our efforts to protect humans should bear some relationship to the actualdamage and risks. Reducing these risks and the consequent strain on natural systems and societycan be accomplished by changes in human behaviour, although they will be most effective if doneby large numbers of people. Preventing human deaths by war and other activities should be a partof the social contract. War is most destructive when waged by nation-states, but guerrilla activitycan be very destructive as well. One common deleterious effect is the production of refugees whocause significant ecological damage to the areas in which they seek refuge. Refugees can alsostrain the societal infrastructure of the area in which they take refuge, even taking it past its maximumlong-term carrying capacity.THE DANGEROUS CONCEPT OF ZERO RISKIn the early days of the environmental movement, especially after the first Earth Day about threedecades ago, discussion flourished on the idea of reducing to zero the risk from potentially toxicchemical substances. The concept of zero risk was eventually discarded, although some politiciansand world leaders still believe it a reasonable goal. Ironically, this concept was even touted as anachievable goal in space flight. For example, before the American spaceship Challenger exploded,officials estimated the probability of malfunction to as few as 1 in 100 000 flights. This estimationwas, in fact, just a euphemism for the idea of zero risk, i.e. the risk is so small it is essentially zero.However, few activities in daily life are entirely without risk. The passengers on the three aircrafthighjacked in the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center buildings in New York or the Pentagonin Washington, DC, did not anticipate the actual risk to which they were exposed. Actual risk is alsonot anticipated by a person driving an automobile who has the misfortune to encounter another driverfilled with ‘road rage’. Absolute security is as elusive as zero risk. The irrational quest for zerorisk and absolute security are major obstacles to achieving sustainable use of the planet, whichshould be humankind’s primary goal.PREVENTATIVE WARThe outmoded concepts of zero risk and absolute security are being used to justify preemptivemilitary strikes to ‘prevent’ a serious threat (e.g. the war in Afghanistan to depose the Taliban andheighten the war on terrorism). The idea of preventative war replaces the concepts of containmentand deterrence, which were the strategies used during the ‘Cold War’ and with Iraq following theGulf War. The doctrine of preventative war was used by both Germany and Japan in World War II, butnot by the nation-states that were attacked. Unilateral action (i.e. preventative war) and, to a lesserextent, measures associated with the war on terrorism represent a rejection of multilateralism, whichis essential to the quest for sustainable use of the planet. Furthermore, the uncertainties involved inunilateral action will almost certainly result in larger expenditures for military purposes and more environmentaldamage, including societal infrastructure, when force is actually used.Reaction to this new orientation (from multilateral to unilateral) will induce countervailing trendsin the international system, which became evident in the actions of the United Nations when the