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220Article 26Reproduced with permission from The Social Contract PressThe Social Contract, XIV(1):56–63, Fall 2003www.thesocialcontract.comA Quarterly Journal on Public IssuesCarrying Capacity, Exponential Growth, and Resource Wars:Ethical Dilemmas of Human SocietyJohn Cairns, Jr.“History is a vast early warning system.”Norman Cousins“… overpopulation can be avoided only if borders are secure; otherwise poor and overpopulated nationswill export their excess to richer and less populated nations. It is time to turn our attention to thisproblem.”Garrett HardinBiological carrying capacity is the number or biomass of organisms that a given habitat can supportand involves two levels: (1) maximum or subsistence density — the maximum number of individualswho can eke out an existence in the habitat and (2) optimum or “safe” density — a lowerdensity at which individuals are more secure in terms of food, resistance to predators, and periodicfluctuations in the resource base (Odum, 1996). Most humans would endorse the improved qualityof life offered by the optimal density level, but they continue to use resources recklessly, whichmakes a subsistence lifestyle increasingly likely.Exponential growth involves increases in such measures as population density and/or resourceconsumption. Global human population growth illustrates this point quite well. The first Earth Dayin the United States included a major emphasis on human population problems at that time with aworld population of 3.6 billion. The Earth Day celebration in 1990, 20 years later, saw a populationthat had increased by 1.7 billion to 5.3 billion. Near the end of the 20 th century, global human populationpassed six billion. Moreover, per capita resource consumption had increased dramaticallyfor a substantial portion of the human population. Benjamin Franklin (1775) remarked on populationgrowth, as did Thomas Malthus (1798), so the concept is far from new. Despite these earlywarnings, societal use of resources has become increasingly unsustainable since resources areunlikely to expand exponentially, despite the exponential increase in population and consumptionof resources.Resource wars occur when a political entity decides to acquire resources that are unobtainableby conventional means. The two world wars and the Gulf War are good examples of resource wars.Hitler wanted “living room” and resource-poor Japan needed just about everything. The Gulf Warwas clearly a result of Saddam Hussein’s intention to acquire control of even more of the world’s oilJohn Cairns, Jr., Ph.D., is University Distinguished Professor of Environmental Biology Emeritus in theDepartment of Biology at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, 24061.