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206Cairns: Eco-Ethics and Sustainability Ethicsalthough the attributes just mentioned protect human society from other species to some degree.For those unfamiliar with this debate, an excellent single source to examine both positions in detailis Myers and Simon (1994).In developing my own position on the degree to which human ingenuity, intelligence, and technologyexempt human society from biophysical laws, the writings of Jared Diamond have been exceedinglyhelpful. The Easter Island example is one of my favorites (Diamond, 1994) because: (1) theislanders were sufficiently organized to quarry stone, sculpt it into huge statues, and transport theseto an area facing the sea some miles from the quarry; (2) the island was so small and remote that itshuman inhabitants could have an intimate contact with the entire land ecosystem and intimately observechanges in it, as well as being aware that outside help was far away; (3) the construction andtransport of the huge statues is persuasive evidence of a central control, but the population was sufficientlysmall to have discussions about the consequences of its behavior upon the prospect forsustainable use of the island. Ecological mismanagement on the island led to the destruction offorests and concomitant loss of agricultural soils. The latter affected the food supply directly and theformer indirectly by eliminating the raw material for construction of fishing canoes. The result wasdramatically decreased population size, increased conflict, and eventual cannibalism.Diamond (1997) discusses an equally intriguing situation based on three islands, Pitcairn Island(of H.M.S. Bounty fame) and less-known Henderson and Mangareva Islands. Mangareva, westernmostof the three islands, is still about 1,000 miles from the nearest habitable islands outside SoutheastPolynesia and was the most abundantly endowed with natural resources important to humans(e.g., freshwater, fish and shellfish, and some land suitable for agriculture). It lacked high quality stonefor making adzes and other tools, but suitable materials were available on Pitcairn Island, which wasa smaller island of
Article 24207ability issues, I began writing a series of commentaries on the subject in its local newsletter (e.g.,Cairns, 1997c,d). Although some months have passed since the first commentary, I have receivedno comment, pro or con, on any of them.A newly forming, local group that is purportedly interested in bioregional planning has failed to seethe connection between bioregional planning and land trusts designed to preserve the ecologicalattributes of a particular piece or property in perpetuity. This lack of understanding is not an encouragingsign because it does not appear that major changes in societal behavior will occur on thebasis of information alone. Still, the attempt must be made since the biophysical laws of nature willprovide consequences if nothing is done beforehand. At the very least, discussions will likely leavesociety better prepared when the consequences do occur. A reasonable first step is speculationabout possible scenarios.(1) Significant action is taken towards sustainable use of the planet based on information alone,despite uncertainty about the precise outcome.This scenario is, in a very real sense, a race between consilience and consequences. If severe environmentalproblems develop before any significant sustainability initiatives are undertaken, no onewill ever know whether human society was capable of acting on the basis of information alone.Wilson’s (1998a,b) consilience hypothesis indicates that a major dynamic leap forward might welloccur, rather than painfully slow incremental advances. Whether the sort of synthesis of knowledgenecessary to implement successful sustainability will occur is definitely uncertain, although the consiliencehypothesis makes this seem more probable than it once did. Certainly, this outcome is themost desirable and is one advocated by a number of leaders in the field (Abernethy, 1997; Myers,1997; Tullberg and Tullberg, 1997). Even though these authors might not be optimistic about the outcome,the time they have invested in defining the problem indicates they believe that a reasonableprobability of successful implementation of sustainability is a hope. Such meetings as IndustrialEcology III of the Future 500 on April 24–26, 1998 in the Marin Headlands of Northern Californiaindicate that scenario (1) is still possible.(2) Human society is intellectually persuaded that sustainability is good, but it is emotionally incapableof making the necessary behavioral changes until a particular incident persuades it that postponementof change is no longer possible.The spectrum of events to illustrate this situation is so broad that even a list would be extensive.One such happening would be the final loss of the Ogalala aquifer, extending from Texas to Canada,in which water is being pumped out at a rate greater than recharge. This loss would cause a majoralteration of agricultural productivity in the United States. Another major alteration would be themelting of the polar ice caps, which would affect some of the low-lying islands, such as the MaldiveIslands in the Indian Ocean, or sections of the United States such as Florida. This scenario is thesecond best option for reaching sustainable use of the planet because human society may suffer butmay still have the resources to make effective changes toward sustainability in time.(3) Multiple, severe consequences occur but human society is in a state of denial (e.g., Orr andEhrenfeld, 1995) about the primary causes.Clearly, doing nothing while waiting for better evidence of danger is not risk free.(4) Technological solutions are attempted or explored instead of changing societal behavior.
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