View - ResearchGate

174Article 20Reproduced with permission from the Westmoorland General Meeting, Society of FriendsQuaker website: preparingforpeace.org/cairnspeace_&_sust.htmPeace and Sustainability: Nurturing Complex SystemsJohn Cairns, Jr.Department of Biology, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USAABSTRACT: Most wars are attempts to acquire more resources (e.g., oil, land, diamonds), althoughthe justification for the war may be expressed quite differently. For the first time in human history,the world’s population has doubled within a human lifetime — resources have not. In addition,human expectations for increased per capita consumption have increased dramatically. Finally, therange of per capita resource consumption worldwide has increased tremendously. These andrelated factors have markedly increased the likelihood of resource wars, which substantivelydeplete natural resources. All these trends are unsustainable. Living sustainably should reduce theprobability of resource wars, benefit posterity, and provide hope for a quality future for allhumankind. Sustainable living should also reduce the disparity between the “haves” and the “havenots.” Both human population size (now 6.3 billion and rising) and distribution (increasingly urbanized)have increased dependence upon the technological/economic life support system which, asnow managed, threatens the much older ecological life support system. The survival of humansociety now depends on the nurturing of both of these complex, multivariate systems so that theyare mutualistic rather than antagonistic. Living sustainably should benefit both systems and reducethe probability of resource wars.For every complex problem there is a simple, direct solution — and it is invariably wrong.H. L. MenckenThere is a lot wrong with our world. But it is not as bad as people think. It is actually worse.Michael MeacherFormer Environmental Minister, United KingdomFOUNDATIONS OF SANDWars between humans are devastating, but the human war being waged on the environment willhave a far greater effect on humankind. Peace for humankind is a superb vision. However, ifhumankind does not cease making war (i.e., destroying) on Earth’s ecological life support systemand the species that comprise it, peace will be built on a foundation of sand. Paul R. Ehrlich (Professorof population studies at Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA) notes: “We’re waging a waron the environment, a very successful one” (quoted in The Guardian, Friday, October 24, 2003). Ifnatural capital is destroyed or impaired, ecosystem services will be lost (e.g., maintaining atmosphericgas balance). This loss will reduce the planet’s carrying capacity for humans and per capitaresources. The inevitable result is resource wars. Exponential population growth reduces per capita