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264Cairns: Eco-Ethics and Sustainability Ethicscapital should be restored. Fortunately, methods and procedures for monitoring the restoration ofnatural capital are available (e.g. Cairns 2002a). The same monitoring techniques can be equallyuseful in providing an early warning of threats to natural capital so that preventative action can betaken before serious degradation occurs. Estimating the health and integrity of dynamic, complex,multivariate systems is a formidable task with fairly high levels of uncertainty. But, the importantaspect, in terms of this article, is that the level of statistical literacy required for even determiningthe appropriate metric for each situation is rather high. The difficulties of explaining the process ofanalyzing and interpreting the data to legislators, policymakers, and the general public boggle themind. An illustrative list of potentially useful analyses follows.1. Uncertainty analysis — focuses on the effects of uncertainty of all components thought tobe a factor affecting the outcome of an analysis as well as the outcome itself.2. Uncertainty matrix — a matrix intended to identify the location, category, and level of uncertaintyfor the purpose of estimating the total uncertainty associated with the outcome of theanalysis.3. Power analysis — estimates the risk of being wrong and for determining the effects of falsepositives and false negatives.4. ‘Right’ question analysis — have the right questions been asked in determining the componentsor issues to be analyzed?5. Sensitivity analysis — estimates the effect a particular component has on the outcome of ananalysis.These are just a few examples of not only elements of a management plan to protect natural capital,but also the difficulty of assembling the analysis of each component so that the cumulativeimpact can be estimated.NUMERACY AND ECOLOGICAL DEFICITSAn ecological deficit results when a significant deviation occurs from the nominative state orfrom a self-regulating ecological condition. Ecological deficits also have closely linked economicdeficits. For example, deforestation and loss of old growth forests produce a variety of effects fromshortage of fuel wood, increased erosion, major changes in the hydrologic cycle and the like.Excessive irrigation results in salinization of agricultural soils and consequent loss of productivity.Poor management practices result in expansion of deserts and deleterious effects of dust storms.Since a huge number of linkages exist in the complex system often referred to as the interdependentweb of life, at some point these deficits act synergistically (combined effects greater thanadditive) and produce an ecological disaster of major proportions.Ecological deficits must be calculated in ecological terms. Trying to frame deficits in monetaryterms will not suffice. In one sense, ecosystems have infinite value since they constitute the planetarylife support system without which humankind and its economic system could not survive.However, the size and extent of the deficit can be calculated. For example, the National ResearchCouncil (1992) has estimated the number of aquatic ecosystems (rivers, lakes, wetlands) that needrestoration. The time and resources needed to accomplish this restoration can be calculated withreasonable precision. Since the rate of ecological damage greatly exceeds the rate of ecologicalrepair, the deficit is increasing at a frightening rate. At some point, so many species will have beenlost that restoration to predisturbance condition will no longer be possible. The task is already formidableand may already be beyond humankind’s capacity to repair. The real danger to humankindis disequilibrium in the ecological life support system if conditions become intolerable. Even if