Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of ...
Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of ...
Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of ...
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DOI: 10.3310/hta17010 Health Technology Assessment 2013 Vol. 17 No. 1Chapter 2 Research questionsRationale for the studyThis study aimed to reduce uncertainty around two issues highlighted in NICE guidance:1. The use <strong>of</strong> troponin <strong>and</strong> other biomarkers to diagnose MI at presentation to hospital.2. The use <strong>of</strong> other biomarkers, exercise ECG <strong>and</strong> CTCA to risk-stratify patients with acute chest pain <strong>and</strong>a negative troponin.Troponin measured at least 10–12 hours after symptom onset <strong>and</strong> using the 99th percentile as adiagnostic threshold, accurately diagnoses MI <strong>and</strong> identifies patients who are at high risk <strong>of</strong> adverseoutcome <strong>and</strong> who will benefit from hospital treatment. However, patients awaiting delayed testing arecurrently detained in hospital until 10–12 hours after symptom onset. This incurs health services costs <strong>and</strong>inconvenience for the patient. An earlier diagnostic assessment could allow earlier hospital discharge, thusdecreasing costs, but would risk missed MI <strong>and</strong> opportunity to benefit from treatment if sensitivity weresuboptimal. High-sensitivity troponin assays, either alone or in combination with other biomarkers, canbe used to diagnose MI before 10–12 hours, but the cost savings <strong>of</strong> this approach need to be weighedagainst the missed benefit (or, more rationally, the additional benefits <strong>of</strong> 10- to 12-hour troponin samplingneed to be weighed against the additional costs, compared with earlier diagnostic assessments). Wetherefore need to undertake evidence synthesis to estimate (1) the diagnostic accuracy <strong>of</strong> early biomarkers<strong>and</strong> (2) the cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong> alternative diagnostic strategies for MI.Biomarkers may also provide benefits by risk-stratifying troponin-negative patients. A negative troponinassay at 10–12 hours (<strong>and</strong> potentially earlier) stratifies patients with acute chest pain to a low but notnegligible risk <strong>of</strong> subsequent MACEs. However, because the risk remains non-negligible there may still besome benefit in measuring other biomarkers that predict increased risk independent <strong>of</strong> troponin level.These biomarkers could be used to select higher risk troponin-negative patients for further investigation<strong>and</strong> treatment to reduce the risk <strong>of</strong> adverse outcome. We therefore need to undertake evidence synthesisto estimate (1) the prognostic accuracy <strong>of</strong> biomarkers other than troponin <strong>and</strong> (2) the cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong>using these biomarkers to select patients for hospital treatment.Troponin-negative patients may also be investigated by exercise ECG or CTCA to identify those with CAD<strong>and</strong> an increased risk <strong>of</strong> adverse outcome who may benefit from coronary intervention <strong>and</strong> medicaltreatment to reduce the risk. We therefore need to undertake evidence synthesis to estimate (1) thediagnostic accuracy <strong>of</strong> exercise ECG <strong>and</strong> CTCA for CAD, <strong>and</strong> the prognostic accuracy <strong>of</strong> exercise ECG<strong>and</strong> CTCA for MACEs <strong>and</strong> (2) the cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong> using exercise ECG or CTCA to select patients forhospital treatment.Overall aims <strong>and</strong> objectives <strong>of</strong> assessmentThe overall aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong> various strategies for diagnosing MI <strong>and</strong> CAD inunselected populations with suspected ACS. More specifically, the objectives were:1. to undertake systematic <strong>review</strong>s to determine:i. the diagnostic accuracy <strong>of</strong> early biomarkers (including troponin) for MI in patients withsuspected ACSii. the prognostic accuracy <strong>of</strong> biomarkers for predicting MACEs in troponin-negative patients© Queen’s Printer <strong>and</strong> Controller <strong>of</strong> HMSO 2013. This work was produced by Goodacre et al. under the terms <strong>of</strong> a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary <strong>of</strong> Statefor Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes <strong>of</strong> private research <strong>and</strong> study <strong>and</strong> extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in pr<strong>of</strong>essional journalsprovided that suitable acknowledgement is made <strong>and</strong> the reproduction is not associated with any form <strong>of</strong> advertising. Applications for commercial reproduction should beaddressed to: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health Research, Evaluation, Trials <strong>and</strong> Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University <strong>of</strong> Southampton SciencePark, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK.7