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DOI: 10.3310/hta17010 Health Technology Assessment 2013 Vol. 17 No. 1Appendix 8 Prognostic model probabilisticsensitivity <strong>analysis</strong> resultsProbability <strong>of</strong> cost-effectiveness using RATPAC dataLambda (λ), £ Prob NoT Prob ETT Prob HF Prob CTCA Prob CA0 1 0 0 0 05000 1 0 0 0 010,000 1 0 0 0 015,000 1 0 0 0 020,000 1 0 0 0 025,000 1 0 0 0 030,000 1 0 0 0 035,000 1 0 0 0 040,000 1 0 0 0 045,000 1 0 0 0 050,000 1 0 0 0 055,000 1 0 0 0 060,000 0.9999 0 0.0001 0 065,000 0.9932 0 0.0068 0 070,000 0.9709 0 0.0291 0 075,000 0.9217 0 0.0783 0 080,000 0.8542 0 0.1458 0 085,000 0.7755 0 0.2245 0 090,000 0.6850 0 0.3150 0 095,000 0.5974 0 0.4026 0 0100,000 0.5115 0 0.4885 0 0105,000 0.4336 0 0.5662 0.0002 0110,000 0.3599 0 0.6389 0.0012 0115,000 0.2920 0 0.7055 0.0025 0120,000 0.2372 0 0.7562 0.0066 0125,000 0.1863 0 0.8024 0.0113 0130,000 0.1427 0 0.8398 0.0175 0© Queen’s Printer <strong>and</strong> Controller <strong>of</strong> HMSO 2013. This work was produced by Goodacre et al. under the terms <strong>of</strong> a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary <strong>of</strong> Statefor Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes <strong>of</strong> private research <strong>and</strong> study <strong>and</strong> extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in pr<strong>of</strong>essional journalsprovided that suitable acknowledgement is made <strong>and</strong> the reproduction is not associated with any form <strong>of</strong> advertising. Applications for commercial reproduction should beaddressed to: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health Research, Evaluation, Trials <strong>and</strong> Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University <strong>of</strong> Southampton SciencePark, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK.173

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