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DOI: 10.3310/hta17010 Health Technology Assessment 2013 Vol. 17 No. 1Probability <strong>of</strong> cost-effectiveness in once-daily ward scenarioLambda (λ), £ Prob NoT Prob 10% Prob 99th Prob Hi SensProb 10-hourtrop0 1 0 0 0 01000 1 0 0 0 02000 1 0 0 0 03000 0.5785 0.4185 0.0030 0 04000 0.0014 0.7478 0.2489 0.0019 05000 0.0001 0.6277 0.3513 0.0209 06000 0 0.5445 0.3918 0.0637 07000 0 0.4735 0.4038 0.1227 08000 0 0.4191 0.3959 0.1850 09000 0 0.3693 0.3821 0.2486 010,000 0 0.3286 0.3677 0.3037 011,000 0 0.2926 0.3503 0.3569 0.000212,000 0 0.2657 0.3336 0.4005 0.000213,000 0 0.2412 0.3171 0.4408 0.000914,000 0 0.2216 0.3020 0.4750 0.001415,000 0 0.2041 0.2881 0.5051 0.002716,000 0 0.1894 0.2741 0.5317 0.004817,000 0 0.1757 0.2623 0.5548 0.007218,000 0 0.1639 0.2518 0.5735 0.010819,000 0 0.1549 0.2438 0.5873 0.014020,000 0 0.1457 0.2353 0.5997 0.019321,000 0 0.1377 0.2281 0.6099 0.024322,000 0 0.1300 0.2188 0.6206 0.030623,000 0 0.1223 0.2122 0.6291 0.036424,000 0 0.1163 0.2039 0.6365 0.043325,000 0 0.1112 0.1970 0.6414 0.050426,000 0 0.1058 0.1899 0.6464 0.057927,000 0 0.1004 0.1829 0.6493 0.067428,000 0 0.0964 0.1759 0.6517 0.076029,000 0 0.0916 0.1707 0.6521 0.085630,000 0 0.0883 0.1647 0.6547 0.092331,000 0 0.0840 0.1576 0.6553 0.103132,000 0 0.0805 0.1512 0.6529 0.115433,000 0 0.0770 0.1451 0.6521 0.125834,000 0 0.0739 0.1397 0.6520 0.1344© Queen’s Printer <strong>and</strong> Controller <strong>of</strong> HMSO 2013. This work was produced by Goodacre et al. under the terms <strong>of</strong> a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary <strong>of</strong> Statefor Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes <strong>of</strong> private research <strong>and</strong> study <strong>and</strong> extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in pr<strong>of</strong>essional journalsprovided that suitable acknowledgement is made <strong>and</strong> the reproduction is not associated with any form <strong>of</strong> advertising. Applications for commercial reproduction should beaddressed to: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health Research, Evaluation, Trials <strong>and</strong> Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University <strong>of</strong> Southampton SciencePark, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK.171

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