Cloud Nasara Action Handbook - Pacific Climate Change Science

VanuatuCloud Nasaratool kitEl Niño and La Niña: from information Cloud to Nasara action! a

Cloud Nasara is a collaboration between Red Cross and the Australian Government’s Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science andAdaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program. The project was implemented by the Red Cross, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology,the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazardDepartment (VMGD) and the SPC-GIZ Climate Change Program.This resource tool kit was developed by the Cloud Nasara project team – Philip Malsale, Salesa Kaniaha, Rebecca McNaught,Jill Rischbieth, Brad Murphy, Christopher Bartlett and Ula Majewski.A very special thank you to the wonderful Pele and Epao communities, and to all the individuals and organisations, acrossVanuatu and the Pacific region, that provided invaluable assistance, advice and feedback throughout the development of theCloud Nasara animation.French translation by Alliance Française of Port Vila under the Regional Cooperation program (Vanuatu/Nouvelle-Calédonie),and François Delage and Brad Murphy of the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia.Bislama translation by Philip Malsale, Melinda Natapei and Mike Waiwai, VMGD.Artwork by Joseph Siri, Jamie Clennett and Lindy Lou.Design by Lea Crosswell.For more information about the use of this resource:www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/cloudnasaraEmail: paccsap@cawcr.gov.au, pacmetdesk@sprep.orgJuly 2013

Welcome to the Cloud Nasara!Welcome to the Cloud Nasara!This resource ‘tool kit’ is designed to helpfacilitators and educators link the informationpresented in the Cloud Nasara animation todecision-making and action. It may assistthose working in fields like climate changeadaptation, disaster risk management, health,education, food security, community planning,environmental protection, agriculture andnatural resource management.The islands of Vanuatu can experience very dry or very wetconditions as a result of El Niño and La Niña events. Theseconditions, along with extreme events like cyclones, can haveserious impacts on water quality, food security, infrastructure(like houses and roads), livelihoods and health. However, goodquality climate and weather information, warnings and forecastscan help us anticipate and prepare for changing risks.The Cloud Nasara animation and this tool kit aim to increaseawareness of the science of El Niño and La Niña and theirimpacts. The tool kit also seeks to encourage discussion aroundhow communities, schools, organisations, governmentdepartments and businesses in Vanuatu can access forecastinformation from the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazardDepartment (VMGD), pro-actively communicate and worktogether with other stakeholders, and take early action toprepare for future El Niño and La Niña events. Addressing theups and downs of these events can also help adaptation tohuman-induced climate change.This tool kit provides resources designed to facilitate a workshopor lesson based around the animated film. It is designed to bevery flexible and can be tailored to different audiences, meetingtopics or timeframes. The sessions could easily be included in thewider program of a training day, workshop or planning session.This tool kit is available on DVD, in print and is also freelyavailable for download fromwww.pacificclimatechangescience.org/cloudnasara.How to use this toolkit – a short guide forfacilitators and educatorsThe most important thing to do before yourworkshop is to watch the Cloud Nasaraanimation a few times, so you’re familiarwith the story, the characters and thekey messages.The Cloud Nasara toolkit contains twotemplates outlining suggested agendasfor the workshop – one is targeted atcommunities and schools, and the otheris targeted at organisations, governmentdepartments and businesses.Choose the template that is most appropriatefor your audience.The template is a guide only – you canchoose to use some or all sessions shown inthe template and can tailor the workshop toparticular audiences, meeting topics ortimeframes.When you are planning a session or lesson,it is important to consider how much timeyou have to facilitate the workshop andidentify some objectives – for example,what is it that you want people to walk awayknowing or doing? Then you can choosewhich workshop sessions you would like toinclude. The workshop template providesa brief explanation of what each session isdesigned to achieve, and outlines the toolsand materials you will need to facilitatethat session.Before the workshop, it is important tofamiliarise yourself with all the sessions’details and content and make sure you havethe support materials you need to facilitatethe workshop. If possible, do a ‘practice run’of your workshop on some friends orcolleagues beforehand.At the back of this handbook, there is aglossary that explains some key terms andalso a list of places you can go to accessmore information if you need it.Cloud Nasara 1

Contents1 Welcome to the Cloud Nasara!1 How to use this tool kitSection 1: Templates for workshops3 Cloud Nasara workshop for communities or schools4 Cloud Nasara workshop for organisations, government departments or businessesSection 2: ‘How to’ guides and other resources7 Introducing the Cloud Nasara8 How to facilitate the weather and climate exercise10 Cloud Nasara quiz13 How to facilitate the Early Warning Early Action scenario exercise (options 1 and 2)16 Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map17 How to access the latest forecasts and warnings18 How to facilitate the Vanuatu Future Climate exercise19 How to play Speed Dating (versions 1 and 2)20 Frequently asked questions and answers for facilitators and educators22 Glossary of key terms23 For more information2 Cloud Nasara

Section 1:Templates for workshopsCloud Nasara workshop for communities or schoolsThis workshop could easily become part of a regular training, lesson plan, workshop or communityplanning session. The template is designed to be flexible and you should use it as a guide only. Choose thesessions that best suit the needs of your workshop and feel free to use some or all sessions shown.WorkshopsessionSession details Tools to help you run this session Time ofsessionIntroducingthe CloudNasaraThis session will give participants a clearunderstanding of the aims and agenda ofthe workshop. You can also use this sessionto facilitate introductions between theparticipants.• See page 7 for some key points that you may liketo raise in the workshop introduction.15 minutesWeather andclimateexerciseThis exercise will help participants to learnabout the differences between weatherand climate.• How to facilitate the weather and climateexercise (see page 8)• A whiteboard or a large piece of paper• Coloured markers• Small pieces of paper30 minutesScreening ofthe CloudNasaraanimationShowtime! All you need to do is press play.• Cloud Nasara animation• Something to play the animation on – forexample, a DVD player and TV or a computerand projector5 minutesQuestiontime!This session is an open forum whereparticipants can ask questions relatedto the animation. There is a list of somecommon questions and answers to help you.• Frequently asked questions and answers forfacilitators and educators (see page 20)15 minutesCloud NasaraquizThe quiz is a good way to reinforce theparticipants’ understanding of keymessages from the animation. You havetwo different quiz options here – you canchoose to play either Cloud Bingo or theCloud Game Show.• How to play Cloud Bingo (see page 10)• How to play the Cloud Game Show (see page 11)• Cloud Nasara quiz questions and answers forfacilitators (see page 12)• Cloud Bingo cards• Bingo chips• Some prizes30 minutesEarly WarningEarly Actionscenarioexercise forcommunitiesand schoolsThis exercise helps people to see how theycan use warnings and forecasts from theVMGD and turn these into practical low costactions, which will help their community orschool to be better prepared.• How to facilitate the Early Warning Early Actionscenario exercise (option 1) (see page 13)• Set of ‘best practice’ action picture cards. Thepicture cards are included in your resource kitand on the Cloud Nasara DVD or you candownload them from www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/ cloudnasaraand print them out before your workshop• Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map(see page 16)• Some big pieces of paper• Coloured markers90 minutesCloud Nasara 3

Cloud Nasara workshop for organisations,government departments or businessesThis workshop could easily become part of a regular training, workshop or planning session. The templateis designed to be flexible and you should use it as a guide only. Choose the sessions that best suit theneeds of your workshop and feel free to use some or all sessions shown.*A Cloud Nasara PowerPoint presentation (with notes) has been designed to help you facilitate this workshop (if you haveaccess to a computer and a projector). This presentation can be copied from the Cloud Nasara DVD or you can download itfrom www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/cloudnasara.WorkshopsessionSession details Tools to help you run this session Time ofsessionIntroducingthe CloudNasaraThis session will give participants a clear understandingof the aims and agenda of the workshop. You can alsouse this session to facilitate introductions between theparticipants.• See page 7 for some key points thatyou may like to raise in theworkshop introduction.15 minutesWeather andclimateexerciseThis exercise will help participants learn about thedifferences between weather and climate.• How to facilitate the weather andclimate exercise (see page 8)• A whiteboard or a large pieceof paper• Coloured markers• Small pieces of paper30 minutesOptionalextra:Speed Dating(version 1)This exercise is a good icebreaker that will encourageparticipants to start thinking about how weather andclimate can impact upon their organisation,department or business.• How to play Speed Dating (version 1)(see page 19)• A stopwatch or a watch with asecond hand• Chairs45 – 60minutesCloud NasaraslideshowpresentationThis presentation will help you to increase participants’understanding of:−−Different timeframes and what they mean in termsof weather and climate−−The difference between climate change andclimate variability−−Current climate trends and projections for VanuatuMake sure you leave some time for questions at theend of the slideshow.• PowerPoint slides and notes*• Computer and projector30 minutesScreening ofthe CloudNasaraanimationShowtime! All you need to do is press play.• Cloud Nasara animation• Something to play the animation on– for example, a DVD player and TVor a computer and projector5 minutesQuestiontime!This session is an open forum where participants canask questions related to the animation. There is a list ofsome common questions and answers to help you.• List of Frequently Asked Questionsand Answers for facilitators andeducators (see page 20)15 minutes4 Cloud Nasara

WorkshopsessionSession details Tools to help you run this session Time ofsessionEarly WarningEarly Actionscenarioexercise fororganisations,departmentsand businessesThis exercise helps people to see how they can usewarnings and forecasts from the VMGD and turnthese into practical low cost actions, which will helptheir organisation, department or business to bebetter prepared.• How to facilitate the Early WarningEarly Action scenario exercise(option 2) (see page 13)• PowerPoint slides and notesshowing some ‘best practice’examples of organisational action*• Computer and projector• Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone TrackingMap (see page 16)• Some big pieces of paper• Coloured markers90 minutesComing soon… the latestforecasts andwarningsThis session will increase participants’ understandingof warnings and forecasts from the VMGD. You canshow everyone the latest seasonal forecasts and anyrelevant current warnings. For example, you couldshow the workshop what a cyclone forecast or severeweather warning looks like. These can be used asuseful tools to start a group discussion about what maybe coming up in the months ahead and how to accessthis information.• Latest seasonal forecasts from theVMGD and other relevant warnings(see page 17)15 – 30minutesThe VanuatuFuture ClimateexerciseThis game will help to reinforce participants’understanding of key information relating to Vanuatu’sfuture climate. This information is a very importanttool that participants can use to make well-informeddecisions and to take appropriate action.• How to facilitate the Vanuatu FutureClimate exercise (see page 18)• PCCSP brochure on Vanuatu trendsand projections (see page 18 forinformation on where to access thisdocument)• Some big pieces of paper• Coloured markers45 – 60minutesOptionalextra: SpeedDating(version 2)This exercise is a great way to finish the workshop.It will encourage participants to start thinking aboutan action that they could take in their organisation,department or business in the near future.• How to play Speed Dating (version 2)(see page 19)• A stopwatch or a watch with asecond hand• Chairs45 – 60minutesCloud Nasara 5

Section 2:‘How to’ guides and other resources6 Cloud Nasara

Introducing the Cloud NasaraKeep the workshopintroduction short and sweet.Introduce yourself andbriefly explain your roleand where you work.Introduce the broad aims ofyour workshop. You couldinclude the following aims:To increase awareness of the scienceand impacts of climate and weather inVanuatu;• To increase people’s understandingof important climate and weatherinformation, warnings and forecastsfrom the VMGD; and• To encourage discussions aroundhow communities, schools,organisations, departments andbusinesses in Vanuatu can take earlyaction to prepare for the impacts offuture El Niño and La Niña eventsand adapt to climate change.You could also highlightthe following points:• Extreme climate and weather eventsand climate change impact on everysector, every organisation, everycommunity and every individual inVanuatu;• There are very useful warnings,forecasts and other servicesprovided by the VMGD that arefreely available to everyone;• These warnings, forecasts and otherservices can be linked with smartdecision-making and practicalaction to best prepare Vanuatu forthe impacts of future extremeclimate and weather events; and,• It is important to pro-activelycommunicate and work togetherwith other communities, schools,organisations, governmentdepartments and businesses.Outline the agenda. Once youhave decided which parts ofthe workshop template youwould like to use, you can writeup your customised agenda.Check to see if anyone has anyquestions and, if appropriate,facilitate introductions betweenthe workshop participants.Cloud Nasara 7

How to facilitate the weatherand climate exerciseEquipment needed• A whiteboard or a large piece ofpaper (flip chart) stuck onto the wall• Different coloured markerswith which to write (permanentor whiteboard)• Some small pieces of paper andsomething to stick them onto thetable with (for example, whitemasking tape or blu-tack)WeatherPreparationDraw this table (see below) on thewhiteboard or on a large piece ofpaper stuck to the wall.Write or print out the scenarios ontothe small pieces of paper (see nextpage: make sure you don’t include theanswers for participants!). You shouldhave one separate piece of paper foreach scenario.ClimateHow to play!1. First ask participants what theythink the difference is betweenweather and climate. You can confirmthe answer and give a couple ofexamples with the information below.Answer:Weather = current conditions likerainfall, temperature, wind speed, ata particular place and time. Example:Today’s temperature is 32 degrees.Climate = average pattern of weatherfor a place over a long period of time(i.e. 30 years or more). Example: PortVila has a pronounced wet season anddry season.There is a useful phrase that can helpto distinguish weather from climate:‘Climate is what we expect. Weather iswhat we get.’2. Hand each person in the group oneof the scenarios (see next page).3. Ask the participants to think aboutif their scenario could be classified as‘weather’ or ‘climate’ and why.4. Ask each person to stick theirpieces of paper under the relevantheading on the table you haveprovided.5. As a group, go through each of thescenarios one by one and discusswhether each scenario is indeedweather or climate and why (theanswers have been provided to helpyou). Move scenarios to the otherheading if needed.8 Cloud Nasara

Scenarios answers in italicsYesterday it was very hot atthe picnicWeather – temperature at a specifictime and place is a short-term condition.Vanuatu has a wet seasonand a dry seasonClimate – the season you expect isbased on long-term observations.The cyclone season runsfrom November to April inVanuatuClimate – the season you expect isbased on long-term observations.The radio presenterannounced that a category 3tropical cyclone is likely tohit the northern provinces ofVanuatu tomorrow morningWeather – cyclone conditions ata specific time and place are shorttermconditions.Anti’s house might getflooded because it has beenraining very heavily thisweek and more rain isforecast todayWeather – rainfall at a specific timeand place is a short-term condition.In Vanuatu the averagemaximum temperature inJanuary is hotter than theaverage maximumtemperature in AugustClimate – the maximum temperaturesin January and August are averagedover time.The forecast for tomorrowmorning is mostly fine, witha chance of showersWeather – short-term conditions.A tsunami alert has beenissued in the Pacific at10:00am todayThis is a trick question – a tsunamiis a geological hazard caused by anearthquake and therefore is not linkedto weather or climate.The average rainfall forMarch in Port Vila is 323mmClimate – rainfall for March is averagedover time.Usually La Niña events bringwetter conditions to Vanuatuand El Niño brings drierconditionsClimate – these are conditions that youcan expect based on observations overlong periods of time.Jon might not go fishingtomorrow because it istoo windyWeather – wind at a specific time andplace is a short-term condition.Droughts occur in Vanuatufrom time to time and causewater shortages and damageto agricultureClimate – we can say this as droughtsand their impacts have been observedmany times over many years.Cloud Nasara 9

Cloud Nasara quizThe quiz is a good way to reinforce participants’ understanding of key messages from the Cloud Nasaraanimation. You have two different quiz options here – you can choose to play either Cloud Bingo or theCloud Nasara Climate Game.How to play Cloud BingoEquipment needed• Cloud Bingo cards (you can findthese on the Cloud Nasara DVDor in your Cloud Nasara folder.They are also freely available todownload from www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/cloudnasara).• Bingo chips (these can be rocks,shells, beans, buttons etc.)• A prize for the winning person orteam (for example, a bag of lolliesor chocolate, or a Cloud Nasarasticker).• Section 1 of the questions andanswers sheet for the gamefacilitator (see page 12).Facilitators1. One facilitator to be the Bingo‘caller’, who calls out the questions tothe group.2. One facilitator to be an answerchecker – to keep track of thequestions and to check the answersmatch up when someone calls Bingo.How to play!1. Hand out Cloud Bingo cards (eachone is different) and 10 – 15 chips toeach player in the group. If you don’thave enough cards for every player tohave one each, then arrange thegroup into teams and they can sharea card.2. Explain the rules of the game(see below) to the players and showthem the winning prize.3. The Bingo caller picks a questionat random from ‘Section 1’ of thequestion and answer list and calls itout. The answer checker should makea note of which questions the callerhas asked so they can check thecorrect answers when someone callsBingo. They can do this by making anote of the questions asked on a pieceof paper (or copying the questionsand answers sheet before the sessionand marking off the questions askedby the caller).4. If a player has the correct answermarked on their Cloud Bingo card,they can place a chip on it.5. The Bingo caller keeps pickingquestions at random from the list andcalling them out.6. Once a player has four chips in arow, then they must call out ‘BINGO!’.7. The game then stops and theanswer checker must check to see thatthe player has marked the correctanswers to the questions asked by theBingo caller.8. If the player has marked all thecorrect answers to form their row offour chips, then they are the winner!9. To wrap up the session, you canbring the group together andfacilitate a short discussion about thefour winning questions and answers.Cloud Bingo Rules1. The facilitator will call out a numberof questions related to the animation.2. If you or your group has the rightanswer to any of the questions onyour Bingo Card, place a chip on thatanswer.3. If you get four chips in a row, callout BINGO.4. The first player or group to callout BINGO wins the game (providingthey have the correct answers ontheir card).10 Cloud Nasara

How to play the Cloud Game ShowEquipment needed• A prize for the winning team (forexample, a bag of lollies orchocolate, or a Cloud Nasara sticker)• Questions and answers sheet forgame facilitator (see next page)Facilitators1. One facilitator to ask the questions.This facilitator will also need to keeptrack of the time it takes for gameparticipants to answer questions.2. One facilitator to keep score.How to play!1. Arrange your group into two teams. This is easy: just number people off as‘one’ or ‘two’ (or divide the room down the middle) and get themto stand or sit in their groups.Each team has a dedicated spokesperson who will make a sound when theirteam has the answer (this person will be a human ‘buzzer’ – to make it fun theycould make the sound of an animal as their buzzer).2. The first team of people gets given a question. The team has a maximumof one minute to answer (team members can discuss the answers amongsteach other).3. When the team thinks it has the answer, the spokesperson sounds their buzzer(for example, makes an animal sound).4. If the team answers a question from Section 1 correctly, the team gets onepoint. If the team answers a question from Section 2 correctly, the team getstwo points.If the team answers incorrectly, or takes too long (the facilitator must keep trackof time), the other team gets the opportunity to answer the question and takethe points5. Take it in turns from one team to the next to try and answer all the questions.The team with the most points at the end wins!Cloud Nasara 11

Cloud Nasara quiz questions andanswers for facilitatorsSection 1.Q: In July, is it the wet season or thedry season in Vanuatu?A: Dry seasonQ: Do cyclones usually come toVanuatu in the wet season or thedry season?A: Wet seasonQ: Multiple-choice question: Whatdoes the VMGD call the Cloud Nasara?A. The North Pacific ConvergenceZone? B. The South Pacific Place ofClouds? Or C. The South PacificConvergence Zone?A: South Pacific Convergence ZoneQ: Does the water in the Cloud Nasaracome from a warm pool or a cold poolin the Pacific?A: Warm poolQ: What pushes the clouds to theirmeeting place in the nasara?A: Trade windsQ: In January, is it the wet seasonor the dry season in Vanuatu?A: Wet seasonQ: Are crops more likely to getwaterlogged in Vanuatu duringa La Niña or an El Niño event?A: La NiñaQ: During an El Niño, are the tradewinds strong or weak?A: WeakQ: During an El Niño, does the CloudNasara move closer to Vanuatu,or further away?A: Further awayQ: During an El Niño, does Vanuatuusually get more rain or less rainthan normal?A: Less rainQ: You can hear forecasts from theVMGD on the radio. True or false?A: TrueQ: What music does the parrot like?A: ReggaeQ: During a La Niña, does the CloudNasara move towards Vanuatu oraway from Vanuatu?A: TowardsQ: Is flooding more likely to happenin Vanuatu during an El Niño or aLa Niña?A: La NiñaQ: El Niño and La Niña are climatechange. True or false?A: FalseQ: There are many low or no costactions that communities can taketo prepare for El Niño and La Niñaevents. True or false?A: TrueQ: Are water shortages more likely tooccur in Vanuatu during La Niña orEl Niño?A: El NiñoQ: Who makes seasonal forecastsabout rainfall for the months aheadin Vanuatu?A: VMGD (or the Meteo Office)Q: If we take actions to prepare forEl Niño and La Niña, it will help us toprepare for long-term climate change.True or false?A: TrueSection 2.Q: What are two usual impacts ofan El Niño event?A: Dry conditions, water runs out,crops fail, less food (you may thinkof more!)Q: What are two usual impacts ofa La Niña event?A: Wet conditions, possible flooding,damage to roads, some crops getwaterlogged (you may think of more!)Q: What are two actions you couldtake to prepare for a period of lowrainfall?A: Actions could include holding acommunity meeting aimed atagreeing on some joint actions, waterrationing and wise water use, fixingleaky taps, mulching crops, handwashing and maintaining goodhygiene standards, building shelterfor your animals, planting yams ormanioc crops and preserving food(you may think of more!)Q: What are two actions you couldtake to prepare for a period of highrainfall?A: Actions could include holdinga community meeting aimed atagreeing on some joint actions,erosion control, destroying mosquitobreeding grounds, hand washing andmaintaining good hygiene standards,building shelter for your animals,planting bananas, preserving food,making sure your community has anevacuation centre or safe house onhigh ground, clearing drains anddigging drainage ditches (you maythink of more!)12 Cloud Nasara

How to facilitate the Early WarningEarly Action scenario exercise (options 1 and 2)Option 1 is targeted at communities and schools and Option 2 is targeted at organisations,government departments and businesses.This exercise will help people in communities, schools, organisations, government departments andbusinesses to see how they can use warnings and forecasts from the VMGD, and turn this informationinto informed decisions and practical actions that will help them to be better prepared.Equipment needed• Two copies of each scenario(see next page)• Big pieces of paper for groupsto record their ideas• Different coloured markers withwhich to write• Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone TrackingMap. You can copy this map frompage 16• For option 1: Cloud Nasara picturecards. You will have copies of thesein your toolkit and on your DVD oryou can download and print themfrom www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/cloudnasara• For option 2: PowerPoint slidesand notes for the Early WarningEarly Action scenario exercise. Acomputer (and projector if available)PreparationFor both exercises1. On some big pieces of paper or on awhiteboard, copy out the discussionquestions (see page 15) and displaythem somewhere where everyone cansee them.2. Write the scenarios out by hand onseparate pieces of paper or print themout. Make sure you have two copies ofeach scenario (just in case you have alarge workshop).For option 2 only.Set the projector up and get thescenario exercise slideshow ready togo. We have provided some slides foryou with the discussion questions andthe scenarios if you would prefer touse this. There are also some slides of‘best practice’ actions, which you canuse at the end of the exercise.How to facilitatethe exercise1. Divide the workshop participantsup into five small groups. You canorganise the groups so people fromthe same or similar organisations,sectors or backgrounds are groupedtogether (for example, you could havea youth group, or a group of peoplewho work in health), or you can numberpeople off into different groups.2. Outline the scenarios (see nextpage) to the whole group. You canshow the group the Vanuatu TropicalCyclone Tracking Map when discussingthe tropical cyclone warning scenario.Then talk through the discussionquestions.3. Provide each group with a pieceof paper outlining a different scenario(see next page), some big pieces ofpaper and markers to write with. Eachgroup should have one scenario only.Give a copy of the Vanuatu TropicalCyclone Tracking Map to the groupdiscussing the tropical cyclonewarning (scenario 5).4. Ask each group to nominatesomeone to present back to the biggroup and someone to take notes.5. Check to see if anyone has anyquestions about the exercise.6. Ask the groups to work throughthe discussion questions using theirparticular scenario. Let them knowthat they will have 45 minutes todiscuss the questions and come upwith ideas.7. Let the groups know when they havefive minutes left and then after time’sup, bring the groups back togetherand ask the nominated speaker fromeach group to take five to ten minutesto present their ideas and actions backto the large group. Allow some timefor questions at the end of eachpresentation.8. At the end of the presentations …Option 1: use the Cloud Nasara picturecards as real life examples to generatediscussion about what early actionsother communities are taking acrossVanuatu. Hold up each picture cardand use the notes on the back toexplain what the activity is and whereit is happening. This part of the sessionis a great chance to inspire participantsto go home and motivate theircommunity or school to takeearly action.Option 2: you can use the slideshowto demonstrate real life examples andgenerate discussion about what earlypreparedness actions are being takenacross Vanuatu. This part of thesession is a great chance to inspireparticipants to go back to workand motivate their organisations,departments or businesses to takeearly action.Cloud Nasara 13

Discussion questionsOption 1:Communities and schools1. ImpactsList the typical impacts of thisscenario on your province.1. Can you remember a time thatthis has happened before?2. What impacts did this have onagriculture, water supplies,people’s health, infrastructurelike buildings and roads etc?2. Information1. What are the names in yourkastom language for thisscenario?2. Do you know of any traditionalindicators in your area that arelinked with this scenario? Canthese be used as triggers forpreparedness?3. Where can you get scientificwarnings and information aboutthis scenario?3. Solutions1. What are the low or no costactions that your community orschool can take to get ready? Howwould these actions link into yourexisting community structures(for example, community disastercommittee, church group etc)?2. Is there a way that some of theseideas could be turned into action?3. Which other communities,schools, government departmentsor organisations could you couldtalk to and work together with totake action?Option 2:Organisations, governmentdepartments and businesses1. ImpactsList the typical impacts of thisscenario on your organisationor sector.1. Can you remember a time thatthis has happened before?2. What economic impacts couldthis scenario have?3. What impacts could this scenariohave on resource access andavailability (for example, food,water and electricity), staff orvolunteer capacity, health andsafety, infrastructure (for example– roads, buildings and airports)and the way that resourcesare managed?2. InformationWhere can you get warnings andmore information about this scenario?3. Solutions1. Think about existing responses tothese impacts. What works wellthat can be done more? What canbe done differently or better nexttime?2. What no cost or low cost actionscan be taken in the near future toprepare for this scenario?3. How would you make sure theseactions are implemented in yourworkplace into the future (notonce-off)? Is there a way to makethese actions part of the standardprocedures in your workplace?4. Which other organisations,departments or businesses couldyou talk to and work togetherwith to take action?Cloud Nasara 15

Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map16 Cloud Nasara

How to access the latestforecasts and warningsThe scientists at the VMGD publish regular seasonalforecasts, including the Vanuatu Climate Update, theVanuatu Rainfall Outlook, and a Tropical Cyclone SeasonalOutlook. VMGD also release media alerts and warningsif an El Niño or La Niña event is forecast. Regular weatherupdates, including cyclone warnings, severe weatherwarnings and marine warnings are also distributedby the VMGD.There are many ways to access the latest VMGD forecastsand warnings.Listen to 98FM, 100FM, 107FM or AM1125 on the radio.Visit the VMGD website: www.meteo.gov.vuFor specific VMGD products, visit the links belowVanuatu Climate Update:www.meteo.gov.vu/VMSLinks/Publications/tabid/179/Default.aspxVanuatu Rainfall Outlook:www.meteo.gov.vu/climateTropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook:www.meteo.gov.vu/Prediction/TropicalCycloneSeasonalOutlook/tabid/201/Default.aspxENSO media alerts:www.meteo.gov.vu/ClimateForecastsRainfall/ENSOAlertreport/tabid/225/Default.aspxTelephone the VMGD on 23866 or 24686Visit the VMGD Office in person. The Port Vila office is located on the LiniHighway in Nambatu. Outside of Efate, you can also access information fromVMGD’s Provincial Synoptic Sites. These are located in Whitegrass, Tanna,Analguahat, Aneityum, Lamap, Malekula, Pekoa, Santo, Saratamata,Ambae and Sola, Vanua Lava.Cloud Nasara 17

How to facilitate the VanuatuFuture Climate exerciseEquipment needed• The Pacific Climate Change ScienceProgram’s brochure ‘Current andfuture climate of Vanuatu’, whichis available in English and Bislama.You can find a copy of this on yourCloud Nasara DVD or you candownload it fromwww.pacificclimatechangescience.org/publications2.html• Big pieces of paper and somethingto stick them up on the walls with• Coloured markers with whichto writePreparation1. Write the following climate changeprojections on the top of your bigpieces of paper (one projection persheet) and stick them up around theroom (make sure you leave lots ofspace under each heading for peopleto write on later)• Temperatures will continueto increase• More very hot days• Changing rainfall patterns• More extreme rainfall days• Less frequent but more intensecyclones (meaning that moreof those that do occur will bevery intense)• Sea level will continue to rise• Ocean acidification will continue2. Set out some markers to write withand some spare paper at each placewhere you have stuck up a climatechange projection.How to facilitate1. Show participants the PacificClimate Change Science Program’sbrochure ‘Current and future climateof Vanuatu’ and explain that thisexercise is based around climateprojections sourced from thispublication. If you have included theCloud Nasara PowerPoint presentationin your workshop, participants shouldalready have an understanding ofsome of the information containedin this brochure.Make sure everyone knows that thisbrochure is freely available online inBislama and English at www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/publications2.html2. Ask workshop participants to divideinto small groups of two or threepeople (depending on how manypeople you have in the workshop).3. Assign one climate changeprojection to each group. Forexample, one group stands atsea-level rise, and another grouptakes temperature rise etc.4. Ask each group to take 15 minutesto brainstorm what impacts they thinkthese changes may have for Vanuatuover the course of this century. Eachgroup should list these impacts undertheir particular projection, using thespare paper if needed. You can helpkick start group discussions by askingpeople to think about impacts relatedto health, agriculture, water,ecosystems or disasters. For example,an impact of more extreme rainfallevents in Vanuatu may lead to moreflooding which can cause damage toinfrastructure (houses/roads/bridges)and threaten people’s livelihoods andsafety.5. Get everyone back together in a biggroup and walk around the room aseach small group explains theiranswers. Participants from the othersmall groups can be encouraged toadd to the list of impacts.After you have gone through all thedifferent impacts, you can facilitate ageneral group discussion. Here aresome useful questions and points thatyou can use to guide this discussion:• Are these impacts things thatpeople in Vanuatu might alreadybe familiar with? Which are/aren’t familiar?• You can point out that someimpacts are related to long-termchange, while others will come asextreme events• Do a brainstorm as a group tothink of other factors that mightmake these impacts worse (forexample, other vulnerabilities suchas economic, environmental,social factors)• You can make the point that it isn’tclimate change alone that will causethe greatest impact. It is theintersection of climate change withmany other challenges, such as ElNiño and La Niña. We can work onpreparing for the ‘shocks’ (likeextreme weather events) as well asthe slow changes (such as changesto seasons) and we can also work onsome of these other factors toreduce vulnerability and increasepeople’s resilience to changes thatmight occur (for example, reducingenvironmental degradation).Make sure you capture any key pointson a whiteboard or on paper.18 Cloud Nasara

How to play Speed Dating (versions 1 and 2)Equipment needed• Chairs – make sure you haveenough chairs for everyone inthe group• A stopwatch (most mobile phoneswill have a stopwatch) or a watchwith a second handPreparation1. Take half the chairs and arrangethem in a circle facing outwards.2. Arrange the other half of thechairs in a bigger circle, with eachchair facing one of the chairs in thefirst circle.How to play1. Ask everyone in the workshop to sitdown in a chair. Once everyone issitting down, there should be twocircles of people facing each other.2. Explain the game.• For ‘Speed Dating 1’, each personwill need to tell the person sittingopposite them their name, theirorganisation and give them oneexample of how the weather andclimate affects their workplace.• For ‘Speed Dating 2’, each personwill need to tell the person sittingopposite them their name, theirorganisation and give them oneexample of an early action that theyare going to take in their workplace.3. Give the participants three minutesto think about which example they aregoing to use.4. Then start the game! Each personsitting in the inside circle of chairs has45 seconds to tell the person sittingopposite them their name,organisation and example.5. The facilitator must keep an eye onthe time. Give the group a warning at35 seconds – you can call out ‘10seconds to go!’ – and once the clockreaches 45 seconds, call out ‘time!’or ‘change!’ or make a loud buzzersound.6. Then it’s the turn of each personsitting in the outside circle, who has45 seconds to explain to the personsitting opposite them THEIR name,organisation and example.7. Once the facilitator has called ‘time’,all the people sitting in the outsidecircle must stand up and move onechair to the left and sit down so thatthey are facing a new person.8. The cycle then starts again, untilthe people in the outside circle havereturned back to the seat that theywere sitting in at the start of theexercise.9. Wrap up the session by reinforcingand sharing some of the ‘highlights’.Ask four or five participants to tell thegroup what they thought was:• The most interesting exampleof how the weather or climateaffected their partners place ofwork (if you’re playing version 1)• The most inspiring or ‘smart’example of an early action thattheir partner planned to take intheir workplace (if you’re playingversion 2)At the end, ask all the participantsto stand up and give themselvesa big clap!Cloud Nasara 19

Frequently asked questions and answersfor facilitators and educatorsThis list of frequently asked questions and answers is designed to help you answer some questionsthat may arise. If you don’t know the answer to a question and it is not covered in this list, be honestand tell people you will find out for them (make sure you do get back to them!). That way you and theparticipant both learn something new!Why do the clouds in the cloudmeeting place form above thewarm pool?Clouds form where there is moistureand rising air. The warm waters of thewarm pool provide both of these.The warm waters heat the air abovethe warm pool, which causes it to riseand adds lots of moisture to the air.What time of the year do ElNiño and La Niña happen andhow long do they last?Every El Niño and La Niña is different,but they usually start around themiddle of the year and last until earlythe following year. Sometimes theycan last for another full year.How often do El Niño or La Niñahappen?El Niño and La Niña don’t happenevery year, and there is no regularpattern of how often an El Niño orLa Niña will occur. This is why it isimportant to keep up to date withseasonal forecasts. Over the periodfrom 1979 to 2012 there were tenEl Niños and six La Niñas. Somedecades have more El Niños andLa Niñas than others. For example,during the decade 2000-2010 fourEl Niño events and two La Niñaevents occurred.Are the impacts of El Niños andLa Niñas always the same?No, they are all different. Scientistscan measure and forecast differentaspects of El Niño and La Niña. Theimpact that they have on temperature,rainfall, the location and intensity oftropical cyclones and changes to sealevel can be different depending onthe strength of the event. Forexample, in Vanuatu, an El Niño maynot always mean there will be adrought, but two out of the last threeEl Niños have resulted in officialdroughts being declared in Vanuatu.It is important to remember that thestrength of an El Niño or La Niña eventonly provides an indication of howwidespread and severe associatedimpacts are likely to be. It does notprovide certainty regarding theseverity of impacts in specificlocations. The best way to anticipateif an El Niño or La Niña event is likelyto bring too much or too little rainfallto your area, is to monitor seasonalforecasts for your country.Are El Niño and La Niña linkedto climate change and why arethey different to climatechange?El Niño and La Niña occur naturallyand are a normal part of our climate.Just like our seasons, they will stilloccur and affect year-to-year climatevariations even when the climate ischanging over a long period of time.In the future El Niño and La Niña willcontinue to occur and affect ourclimate. However, because our climateis changing, some aspects of El Niñoand La Niña may be different in thefuture. The average climate ischanging. For example, theatmosphere is warming, which meansit can hold more moisture, so rainfallmay become more intense in someplaces. This also means that theeffects of El Niño and La Niña have onrainfall may also be different in thefuture. Also, sea level is rising due toclimate change. This means that anyhigh sea level events that happen,for example due to La Niña, may bemore severe because of the higheraverage sea levels due to climatechange. Scientists are also researchingwhether El Niño and La Niña mighthappen more or less often, or be moreor less intense in the future, but at themoment the science suggests thesewill not change significantly.How accurate are the VMGD’sseasonal forecasts?The VMGD provides forecasts ofEl Niño and La Niña, and of theirimpacts. They can fairly accuratelyforecast whether an El Niño or La Niñaevent is likely to happen from a fewmonths or more ahead, depending onthe time of year and the strength ofthe signs. However, impacts such asan increase or decrease in rainfall areharder to predict and so theseforecasts don’t provide certainty, butwe can still take ‘low cost’ measures toprepare. The impacts of past El Niñoand La Niña events also guide us asto how the climate for the comingseasons is likely to be different fromnormal. For example, in 2009 theVMGD released forecasts andwarnings indicating that Vanuatu waslikely to experience an El Niño eventand possible drought conditions. Overthe next few months, parts of Vanuatuexperienced very dry conditions as aresult of this El Niño, which resulted inwater shortages, bush fires, and problemswith food crops in many places.20 Cloud Nasara

What if the forecast highrainfall doesn’t happen – haveI wasted my time preparing?Forecasts are probabilities, notcertainties. This means that there is achance or a risk of somethinghappening (for example, high rainfall).Just because we don’t have certaintydoesn’t mean we shouldn’t prepare. Itis always better to be safe than sorry.There are many actions we can takethat will mean we are more preparedfor next time and that are good topractice regardless of whether therainfall forecast happens or not – forexample, encouraging hand washingand good hygiene practices.Where can I find seasonalforecasts and what can I dowith them?See page 17 to find out how you canaccess the latest seasonal forecasts.If, over the coming months, seasonalforecasts for your area show a higherchance of below or above normalrainfall, it is important to startthinking through possiblepreparedness measures. Somequestions to consider when you arethinking about possible measures are:• What would too much or too littlerainfall mean in terms of water andfood availability, health problemsand income?;• What can be done to prepare? Whatkind of ‘low-cost’ actions could betaken early on that would help tomanage these impacts? (‘low-cost’actions are things that are good todo anyway, regardless of whethera forecast event happens or not –for example, hand washing andmaintaining good hygiene standardsor mulching gardens); and,• Do you have a community disastercommittee and has the committeediscussed possible preparednessand response measures?What if I can’t understand theseasonal forecast? Who canI ask for help?The VMGD can provide you with moreinformation and advice.Can you get droughts and dryspells when it’s not El Niño andcan you get floods and heavyrain when it’s not La Niña?Yes, you can. El Niño and La Niña arethe biggest drivers of year-to-yearclimate variations in the Pacific, butthere are many other forces at work aswell that can bring floods, like tropicalcyclones, or dry spells, such as delaysto the start of the wet season.Where can I get moreinformation about El Niño,La Niña and climate change?See the ‘For more information’ sectionat the end of this booklet.What actions can I take toprepare for the impacts ofEl Niño, La Niña and climatechange and where can I getmore information and advice?The VMGD can help explain forecasts.The Vanuatu National DisasterManagement Office (NDMO) canprovide advice on disasterpreparedness measures appropriatefor the hazards you face (for exampleflood or drought preparedness).Vanuatu Red Cross is also availableto assist with disaster preparednessinformation and advice across Vanuatu.Cloud Nasara 21

Glossary of key termsAdaptation: Adjustments in responseto actual or expected climate change,to reduce negative impacts or takeadvantage of opportunities.Climate: the average pattern ofweather for a particular place overa long period of time (for example,30 or more years). ‘Climate’ is differentfrom ‘weather’. One popular phrasecan help distinguish weather fromclimate: ‘Climate is what we expect.Weather is what we get.’Climate change: Changes in theEarth’s climate, generally referring tothose due to human activities but canalso include natural processes. Thesechanges can include more intenseextreme events such as droughts,floods, and tropical cyclones, andchanges in average rainfall patterns.Climate change due to human activityhas happened and is expected tocontinue much more quickly thannatural changes in the climate, dueto the unprecedented rate of increasein greenhouse gases.Climate projection: a descriptionof what the climate may be like in thecoming decades and centuries. Theseare generally produced by climatemodels taking into account variousscenarios of possible futuregreenhouse gas emissions.Climate system: The linked system ofthe atmosphere, oceans, land surface,cryosphere (parts of the world coveredin ice – for example, glaciers) andbiosphere (parts of the world wherelife is found – for example, forests) andthe interactions between them all. Theclimate system is normally described interms of pressure, temperature,rainfall, winds and currents and othervariables, as well variations like theEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).The state of the climate system isdetermined by physical conditionssuch as the location and shape ofcontinents and islands, solar (sun)output, amounts of greenhouse gasesand the Earth’s orbit and angle.Climate variability: Variations in theclimate due to natural processes.Important climate variability occursfrom month-to-month, season-toseason,year-to-year and evendecade-to-decade. In the Pacificregion, the main driver of climatevariability from year-to-year is theEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Cloud Nasara: A cloud meetingplace, such as the South PacificConvergence Zone.Dry season: The period of one ormore months that occurs every yearwhen there is the lowest amount ofrain. The ‘dry season’ is the oppositeof the ‘wet season’. In Vanuatu, thedry season usually happens fromMay to October.El Niño: This is what scientists callthe time when the trade winds in thePacific weaken, warmer waters moveto the east and the cloud meetingplaces move closer together. InVanuatu, an El Niño usually bringsless rainfall than normal.El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO):This is what scientists call the ups anddowns of El Niño and La Niña acrossthe Pacific. ENSO causes changes torainfall, cyclone risk, winds, sea levelsand temperatures.Forecast: A prediction of futureconditions or events. WeatherForecasts give the most likelyconditions (e.g. expected temperatureand if it will rain) for the coming days(out to about a week), while SeasonalForecasts give the probabilities of acondition occurring (e.g. the chanceof getting above normal rainfall) forthe coming months or season. Allforecasts are uncertain. However,just because we don’t have certaintydoesn’t mean we can’t prepare. It isalways better to be safe than sorry.Hazard: Something natural orman-made that may cause disruptionor damage to life, property and/orenvironment.La Niña: This is what scientists callthe time when the trade winds in thePacific get stronger, pushing warmerwater to the west and the cloudmeeting places further apart. This isthe opposite of El Niño. In Vanuatu,a La Niña usually brings more rainfallthan normal.Nasara: a meeting place.Preparedness: Measures taken inanticipation of a hazard to reduce thelevel of damage.Seasonal forecast: The forecastingof likely conditions (for example, ofrainfall) in a region for a period ofone or more months, based on theconditions in the ocean andatmosphere. These forecasts canhelp to prepare for different extremeimpacts, from tropical cyclone damageto malaria.South Pacific Convergence Zone:The Cloud Nasara. A place whereclouds meet and rainfall occurs.Trade winds: The prevailing winds inthe tropics, which generally blow fromthe east.VMGD: The Vanuatu Meteorology andGeo-hazard Department. Alsocommonly known as the Meteo Office.Vulnerability: The degree to whichlife, property and/or environment isopen to being affected by, or unableto cope with, adverse effects of hazardimpacts.Warm pool (also known as WestPacific Warm Pool and Indo-PacificWarm Pool): A very large pool of theworld’s warmest water, withtemperatures exceeding 28 – 29°C,extending from the central Pacificto the far eastern Indian Ocean.Weather: The state of theatmospheric, such as temperature,rainfall and wind speed, over a shortperiod of time – a few hours or a fewdays. Weather changes from day today and the changes are easy to see.‘Weather’ is different from ‘climate’.One popular phrase can helpdistinguish weather from climate:‘Climate is what we expect. Weatheris what we get.’Wet season: The period of one ormore months that occurs every yearwhen there is the highest amount ofrain. The ‘wet season’ is the oppositeof the ‘dry season’.22 Cloud Nasara

For more informationFor more information on weather,climate, forecasts and warnings,visit the VMGD website –www.meteo.gov.vu – or contact theVMGD. You can telephone the VMGDon 23866 or 24686 or visit the VMGDOffice in person. The Port Vila officeis located on the Lini Highway inNambatu. Outside of Efate, you canalso access information from VMGD’sProvincial Synoptic Sites. These arelocated in Whitegrass, Tanna,Analguahat, Aneityum, Lamap,Malekula, Pekoa, Santo, Saratamata,Ambae and Sola, Vanua Lava.For more information on disasterpreparedness actions, contact theVanuatu National DisasterManagement Office (NDMO) viatelephone on 22699 or by post –Private Mail Bag 9107, Port Vila.Vanuatu Red Cross can also help youwith information and advice aboutdisaster preparedness and taking earlyaction. You can telephone the VanuatuRed Cross on 27418 or visit a Red Crossbranch in your area.There are also some fantastic onlineresources that you can access.• Vanuatu’s National Advisory Board’s(NAB) portal – www.nab.vu• The Pacific Climate Change Science sitewww.pacificclimatechangescience.org• The Pacific Climate Change Portalwww.pacificclimatechange.net• The Pacific Disaster Netwww.pacificdisaster.netCloud Nasara 23

www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/cloudnasara