ECI Annual Review 2006/2007 - Environmental Change Institute ...

Environmental
Change Institute
Annual Review 2006

Thanks and Acknowledgements
Benefactors Principal research grantors
The University of Oxford is immensely
grateful to the benefactors
who enabled the founding of the
Environmental Change Institute in
1991 and have invested since in its
development.
Dr James Martin
The Jackson Foundation
Mr and Mrs Colin Trapnell
MOA International
IBM United Kingdom Trust
Merton College, Oxford
Powergen plc
Nuclear Electric
Andrew W Mellon Foundation
Environment Now Foundation
Thames Water plc
Charterhouse Charitable Trust
Esmée Fairbairn Foundation
The Strachan Donnelley Family Trust
Rhodes Trust
Riche Monde
John S Cohen Foundation
Dulverton Trust
The Higgins-Trapnell
Family Foundation
TSB Lloyds Bank plc
BOC Foundation
Loke Wan Tho Foundation
Solar Century
EcoSecurities
Climate Care
and over 1,000 graduates of the
University of Oxford
advisory board
Professor Tim O’Riordan (Chair)
Sir Victor Blank
Sir Anthony Cleaver
Mr Vic Cocker CBE
Dr Strachan Donnelley
The Rt Hon John Gummer MP
The Rt Hon Lord Holme of
Cheltenham CBE
The Principal, Linacre College
Professor Jacqueline McGlade
Mr Derek Osborn
Mr Francis Sullivan
Sir Crispin Tickell
Dr Angela Wilkinson
europe
Danish Energy Agency, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit, (GTZ)
GmbH, ECOFYS, EDF SA, Electrolux, EU Interreg Programme, European Commission,
ALTENER Programme, European Commission SAVE Programme, European Environment
Agency, European Social Fund, European Tropical Forest Research Network, French
Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), Grundfos - Denmark,
Netherlands Agency for Energy and the Environment (NOVEM), Swiss Agency for
Development and Co-operation.
International
International Food & Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, International
Council of Scientific Unions, International Energy Agency, International Geographical
Union, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), International Human
Dimensions Programme (IHDP), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), United
Nations Environment Programme, World Bank, World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP), World Conservation Union-IUCN.
usa
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, US Government Environment Protection Agency.
united kingdom
AEA Technology, Arts Council, Biffaward, British Academy, British National Space
Centre, Building Research Establishment, Carbon Trust, Chartered Institute of Building
Services Engineers, Darwin Initiative - UK Government, Department for International
Development - UK Government, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
- UK Government, Economic and Social Research Council, Electricity Association,
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, English Nature, Environment Agency,
Environment and Heritage Service (Northern Ireland), Heritage Lottery Fund, Joint Nature
Conservation Committee, Napier University, National Endowment for Science, Technology
and the Arts, Natural Environment Research Council, National Trust, National Trust for
Scotland, Research and Development Fund - University of Oxford, Royal Commission
on Environmental Pollution, Royal Geographical Society, Royal Society, Royal Society for
the Protection of Birds, Scottish Executive, Scottish Natural Heritage, Society of Motor
Manufacturers and Traders, Thames Water plc, Trapnell Fund, Tyndall Centre, UK Water
Industries Research, West Oxfordshire District Council, World Wide Fund for Nature.
Financial Summary, 2005-06
Income
Competitive Research Grants (eg, EU & UK £
Governments, UK Research Councils)....................1,845,000
Higher Education Funds (tuition, HEFCE)..........................407,000
Benefactions & other income..................................................308,000
Total....................................2,560,000
Expenditure
Research & Academic Staff ..................................................1,235,000
Administrative, Support, & Communication Staff.............245,000
Non-staff: Research Equipment,
Consumables, Travel, Office expenses..................................610,000
University Costs .....................................................................296,000
Total....................................2,386,000
Surplus...................................174,000
Deficit from 2004-05.........117,000
Carry forward........................57,000

ECI in 2006 .............................................................................................2
Director’s Statement .................................................................................3
ECI at a glance .........................................................................................4
Climate Research Theme...........................................................................6
Global Environmental Change and Food Systems .........................................8
The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research ..........................................9
UK Climate Impacts Programme ..............................................................10
Ecosystems Research Theme
Biodiversity and Climate Change .............................................................12
Ecosystem Dynamics ...........................................................................14
Human Ecology ..................................................................................16
James Martin 21st Century School and ECI Fellows ....................................18
Energy Research Theme
Contents
Lower Carbon Futures: Making the transition to an equitable, low-carbon society ...20
Lower Carbon Futures Research Projects ...................................................22
UK Energy Research Centre: ‘The Meeting Place’ managed by ECI .....................24
Ecosystems: Conservation Practice ...........................................................25
Environmental Science and Policy Journal ...................................................25
Land Degradation Research .......................................................................26
Doctoral Research Students ......................................................................28
Master of Science in Environmental Change and Management ......................30
ECI Publications in 2006 ...........................................................................34
‘The Road to San Gimignano’......................................................................36
Ideas for the German G8-EU 2007 Twin Presidency from Professor John Schellnhuber CBE
Tipping Point 2006: Climate and Art..........................................................37

ECI in 2006
January
The highly successful
40% House launch
www.40percent.org.uk.
Dr Pam Berry presents to EU
policy makers in Brussels:
‘assessing the vulnerability
of European biodiversity to
climate change’.
Dr Chris West gives evidence on climate
change to the French Parliamentary
Commission, and Swedish Minister of
Environment Commission.
February
Dr Yadvinder Malhi is awarded a £160K
Natural Environment Research Council
grant to study marginal tropical forests
in Africa, South America and Australia.
Drs Paula Harrison and Pam
Berry win funding from
the European Commission
to coordinate 23 partner
organizations for the
£1.3million project:
‘Rationalising Biodiversity
Conservation in Dynamic
Ecosystems’ (RUBICODE).
March
Professor Diana Liverman delivers a
prestigious 21st Annual Darwin College
Lecture at Cambridge University to over
600 people. ‘Survival into the Future’,
focused on the risks and solutions to
climate change.
ECI host the Royal Geographical
Society’s Climate Change Research
Group Open Meeting for over 50
geographers.
April
Lower Carbon Futures promote 40%
House with 4 presentations at the
2006 International Solar Cities
Congress.
MSc Environmental Change and
Management secures scholarships
from EcoSecurities and Climate Care
- Oxford based companies that employ
several MSc alumni.
Oxford becomes a core partner in the
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, focusing on post-2012 climate
policy, climate and development, and
climate uncertainty.
May
ECI win £200K from the
UK Government’s ‘Climate Challenge
Fund’ for the new Climate-X-Change
- creating a ‘climate buzz’ in Oxfordshire
www.climatex.org.uk
ECI brief new Environment Minister,
David Miliband MP, on climate change
and biodiversity during a visit to Oxford
University’s Wytham Woods.
June
Dr Brenda Boardman appears as the
BBC’s Money Programme energy expert
investgating how much energy we are
wasting in the home.
Professor Diana Liverman talks on BBC
Radio 4’s Food Programme, on the impact
of climate change on food security.
July
Dr Yadvinder Malhi secures £300K from
Natural Environment Research Council
to assess ecosystem carbon dynamics in
tropical montane forests.
ECI’s Meeting Place host the UK Energy
Research Centre annual assembly in
Edinburgh.
August
Pan-Amazonia Network (coordinated by
ECI) host the 2006 workshop in Bolivia
to consolidate research and scientific
findings from across the region.
September
ECI host TippingPoint 2006, the hugely
successful event for artists and scientists
to explore climate change.
Energy team launch the new Quick-
Hits series, to contribute to reducing
carbon emissions by 2010 and designed
to be easy for Government and local
authorities to implement.
October
Predict and decide report is
launched by the All Party
Parliamentary Sustainable
Aviation Group at the House
of Lords and receives sustained
media attention across the airways.
James Martin 21st Century School
Fellow Cameron Hepburn contributes
to the widely publicised Stern Review on
the economics of climate change.
Global Environmental Change and Food
Systems (GECAFS) move into ECI in a
new partnership.
Dr Anna Lawrence delivers the annual
distinguished ethnobotanist lecture
at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew:
‘Taking stock of nature? Ethnobotany
and action in participatory ecological
governance.’
November
Dr John Boardman consolidates over
3 decades of work as a leading land
degradation expert through his newly
published book Soil Erosion in Europe.
James Martin 21st Century School
Sabbatical Fellow Professor Timmons
Roberts publishes his book Climate of
Injustice: Global Inequality, North-South
Politics, and Climate Policy.
Several ECI researchers join a dozen ECI
alumni at the latest round of UN climate
negotiations in Nairobi.
December
Professor Diana Liverman delivers a
lecture on Global Change and Food
Security at the Earth System Science
Partnership (ESSP) summit in Beijing.
ECI end 2006 having written over 80
publications; making over 35 national
newspaper, radio and TV appearances
and securing a total of £1.8million in
new research grants.
and so to 2007...
Dr Kate Parr, the new Trapnell Fellow
in African Terrestrial Ecology, arrives
in January, with Professor Arthur Mol
(Wageningen University) and Dr Roger
Pielke (National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder) both James Martin
21st Century School Sabbatical Fellows
arriving later in the year. ECI will be
hosting a major international Conference
on Climate Change and the Fate of the
Amazon in March. For ECI’s UKERC
Meeting Place, topics range from
European marine renewable energy to
the Japan-UK Low Carbon Society and
US-UK carbon capture and storage.

News from the Director
Diana Liverman, Professor of Environmental Science
The Environmental Change Institute
celebrated its 15th anniversary
in 2006, fulfilling visions of its
founders by growing to more than
60 staff, hosting several national
and international research centres,
and contributing to several high
profile reports. This 2006 Annual
Report focuses mostly on our new
initiatives but needs to recognise
the long years of hard work that
brought us to this point. It emerges
at a time of unprecedented interest
in the environment, especially
climate change, with UK political
parties competing over green
credentials and growing corporate
attention to environmental
issues. Graduates from our MSc
in Environmental Change and
Management are taking their places
in the academic, business, NGO
and government sectors around the
world. For example, at the latest
climate negotiations in Nairobi, our
alumni were negotiating for their
countries, reporting for the media,
and lobbying for environmental
organizations and businesses.
The Institute has always been guided
by an Advisory Board, chaired for
many years by Professor Andrew
Goudie who stepped down at the
end of 2005 (we have established the
Andrew Goudie Scholarship for an
MSc student in recognition of his
service). I am delighted that the new
Chair, Professor Tim O’Riordan,
has taken on his advisory board
role with enormous enthusiasm
and together with other new
board members Francis Sullivan,
Angela Wilkinson, and Jacqueline
McGlade, is joining us in some
forward looking planning. Tim’s
achievements include many years
of leadership in environmental
science and policy at the University
of East Anglia, in advising UK and
international governments, and
membership of the Sustainable
Development Commission.
Our last report acknowledged
several new benefactions and the
initiation of major new projects
that are now delivering on their
promise. The UK Climate Impacts
Programme (UKCIP) is continuing
to play a pioneering role in working
with stakeholders, now with a focus
on adapting the UK to climate
change. A complementary activity
is the UK Government funded
Climate-X-Change that works
on climate outreach to the local
Oxfordshire citizenry. The ECI
node of the UK Energy Research
Centre has hosted a series of key
discussions in the Meeting Place
and is one of the ways in which our
Lower Carbon Futures group is
addressing the challenge of reducing
demand for fossil fuels. Together
with colleagues in Geography
and Atmospheric Physics we
are now a core member of the
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
consortium trying to respond to
the challenges of uncertainty in
climate change science, the design
of the international climate regime,
and of climate and development in
Africa. Climate policy expertise
is enhanced through the group of
James Martin 21st Century School
Fellows. The Ecosystems group is
gaining international recognition for
its work on climate change impacts
on landscapes, especially in Europe,
and in terms of the role of tropical
forests in the earth system. Recently
we welcomed the international
project office for the Global
Environmental Change and Food
Systems (GECAFS) programme,
coordinating the activities of
researchers around the world to
understand how the changing
environment affects food security.
After the excitement of moving
everyone to the new location and
administrative structures of the
Oxford University Centre for the
Environment (OUCE) in 2005, we
have settled in to our new home
during 2006. The OUCE brings
together ECI, the Transport Studies
Unit, and the School of Geography
under one roof and is starting
to foster greater collaboration
across the three groups as well
as bringing our MSc and DPhil
students together with the more
than 100 postgraduates with
environmental interests in areas
such as biodiversity and water.
2006 saw one final administrative
restructuring as the OUCE moved
from the now extinct Life and
Environmental Sciences division of
the University to the Social Sciences
division. This move is opening
up new opportunities for ECI to
bridge to other departments such
as the Said Business School and
International Development (Queen
Elizabeth House, QEH).
We are very grateful for new
postgraduate scholarships funded by
Climate Care and by EcoSecurities,
two local Oxford companies who are
world leaders in carbon offsetting.
We are always looking for new
partnerships that can help bring
outstanding students to work with
us in Oxford.
Finally, let me recognise the
renewed commitment of the ECI
staff to academic scholarship,
innovative teaching and policy
impact. This includes significant
growth in our publication output,
the continued popularity of our MSc
programme and DPhil supervision,
and the prominent contributions
of ECI staff to debates about policy
including that on the economics of
climate change (the Stern Review),
aviation and climate, and the
fate of the Amazon. All of this is
underpinned by the hard work of
our support staff to whom I am very
grateful.

only got
30 seconds ?
After 16 years Oxford’s ECI is increasingly recognised as an
innovative and successful environmental enterprise.
Uniquely in the UK it is playing a lead role in the
Government’s three major climate and energy research
initiatives: UK Climate Impacts Programme, the Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research, and the UK Energy
Research Centre. ECI’s cross-disciplinary innovation has been
acknowledged in it becoming a founding partner of Oxford’s
£60m James Martin 1st Century School.
The ECI’s research and teaching focus is grouped around three
interlocking themes: Climate, Ecosystems, and Energy. The
research brings together the natural and social sciences, with an
orientation to applied and public policy by considering: ‘How
and why is the global and regional environment changing?
and ‘How can we respond, through public policy, private
enterprise, and social initiatives?’
ECI
Ecosystems
Research Theme
Climate
Research Theme
Energy
Research Theme
Master of Science
Environmental
Change &
Management
Ecosystem Dynamics
Biodiversity & Climate Change
Human Ecology
Conservation Practice
James Martin 21st Century School
Tyndall Centre
UK Climate Impacts Programme
Lower Carbon Futures
UK Energy Research Centre
Carbon Vision
Newly appointed James
Martin Fellows begin making
their mark on the world’s
21st century problems
Examining questions like: “How do uncertainties in
predictions of global climate change models affect
climate policy?”; and “Can foreign aid help drive
positive change at the level of national economies,
moving countries toward lower-carbon/higher value
pathways of development?”
Grabbing runaway media attention
for newly released ‘Predict and
Decide’ the Lower Carbon Futures
report strives for emissions
reductions throughout society.
p 20
p 18
Ecosy
MSc Environm
Energy group facilitate
the shift towards a low
carbon society
E

p 14
p 24
ECI coordinates 23 global
partners to assess the value of
biodiversity
The new Rubicode project, led by
ECI, aims to aid policy makers in
reducing biodiversity loss.
stems
p 12
Ecosystem researchers are
awarded over £675,000
during 2006 spread over 8
new projects
From carbon dynamics in tropical
forests, to environmental governance
in the Netherlands, ECI continues to
bring in global funding grants.
nergy
UK Energy Research
Centre Meeting Place
hosts 26 events for
the international energy
community in 2006
Climate
UKCIP expands to
16 staff following a
£3.8million boost in
13th year of the MSc
Environmental Change and
Management gets underway with
35 students from 16 nationalities
Over 350 students have
now completed the MSc
and are increasingly
commanding
influential positions in
worldwide businesses,
governments, NGOs,
and academia.
p 30
2005
p 10
13 ECI MSc Alumni gather in professional capacities for the
2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP12)
Oxford Tyndall begins to examine
how international action on
climate change can be effectively
developed post-2012
p 9
ECI’s largest ever intake of 12
new DPhil students begin
doctoral degrees in 2006
At the close of
2006, ECI researchers
are supervising 27
doctoral students, the
highest number since
establishment in 1991.
ental Change and Management
p 28

6
CLimate
Following the success of winning
three major climate initiatives
(Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research – core partner;
UK Climate Impacts Programme
– host; UK Energy Research Centre
– core partner), the ECI has further
increased its portfolio in respect to
climate change research.
Our climate research is carried
out within the Oxford University
Centre for the Environment Climate
Systems and Policy Research
Cluster, by our James Martin 21st
Century School Research Fellows;
and Tyndall Research Fellows; as
well as through projects in our
Energy and Ecosystems research
themes. The UK Climate Impacts
Programme (UKCIP) helps
businesses and organisations assess
how they might be affected by
climate change, so they can prepare
for its impacts. ECI also hosts the
Global Environmental Change
and Food Systems Secretariat
(GECAFS), which works on climate
and food security.
Climate research at ECI consists
of projects grouped around five
core topics: Science, Impacts,
Adaptation, Mitigation, and
Communication.
Climate Science Research
The climate science and policy
communities are moving beyond
the traditional “one size fits all”
products which provide best
guesses, towards products which
allow for more nuanced approaches.
This allows policy makers and
climate modellers to do a much
better job of quantifying projections
than has been possible under
traditional approaches. In particular,
probabilistic approaches allow us to
explore a more representative range
of possible future climates, and may
permit meaningful estimation of
risk. These developments in turn
open up interesting new ways to
examine interactions between the
human decisions and the climate
response on timescales from
decades to centuries.
ScienceProjects
Climate Response
How do uncertainties in projections
of global climate change models
affect climate policy?
Atmosphere-Biosphere interactions in
Amazonia
The ECI’s Ecosystems research
theme is undertaking a number
of projects to further scientific
understanding of biosphere -
atmosphere interactions in tropical
forests.
Climate Impacts Research
Climate change will have wideranging
impacts on human and
non-human life. Focusing attention
Leader:
Professor Diana Liverman
on, and quantifying, these potential
impacts is vital to advising public,
private, and voluntary organisations
of the societal implications of a
changing climate. Equally, climatic
changes are likely to have effects
on ecosystems and observing and
predicting these changes are critical
challenges. Building understanding
between climate science and
impacts communities provides
the basis for constructing suitable
adaptation strategies.
ImpactsProjects
UK Climate Impacts Programme
UKCIP provides the public,
private, and voluntary sectors, as
well as the scientific community with
a range of tools and datasets which
support climate impact assessment
and adaptation planning.
Impacts of Climate Change on
Biodiversity
The ECI’s Ecosystem research
theme includes projects which
examine species’ response to
changing climate. This includes the
MONARCH and BRANCH projects.
Impact of the 2005 drought in
Amazonia
The severe drought which affected
Amazonia in 2005 provides a unique
opportunity to assess the impact and
response of biodiversity to extreme
conditions, which may become
more widespread in a warmer global
climate.

Climate Mitigation Research
The attribution of current climate
change to increased greenhouse
gases, particularly carbon dioxide,
from anthropogenic sources has
centred policy attention on the
reduction of these emissions.
Exploring potential avenues for
reducing emissions is necessary
to preventing dangerous climate
change and is a central part of
research on developing a low carbon
society. Current policy debates focus
on reducing emissions at personal
and corporate level; the potential
of markets to efficiently reduce
emissions; and the mechanisms that
link lower carbon economies with
developmental aid. Informing these
policies post-2012, the end of the
Kyoto Protocol’s ‘first commitment
period’, is a critical arena for
contemporary work.
MitigationProjects
Informing international climate policy
This Tyndall research question led
by ECI’s Professor Diana Liverman
examines how international action
on climate change can be effectively
developed after 2012
Lower Carbon Futures
ECI’s energy research theme
undertakes projects to understand
the links between consumer
behaviour, new technologies, policy
formulation and the markets, with
the goal of lowering future carbon
emissions.
Climate Adaptation Research
Managing and adapting to future
climate changes will be critical
for the welfare of humans and
non-humans in various parts
of the world. This adaptation
may be in advising businesses of
future impacts, or exploring the
adaptation of societies or ecological
communities at present with
questions about how and why some
societies or communities adapt to
changes more readily than others.
Critical issues focus on questions
of water, food, and energy at local,
national, and international scales.
Successful adaptation will depend
on the climate scientists and the
social scientists working together to
implement wide-ranging solutions
that build our capacity to adapt to
future climate change.
AdaptationProjects
Foreign assistance and low carbon
economies
Can foreign aid help drive positive
change at the level of national
economies, moving countries toward
lower-carbon/higher value pathways
of development?
Adaptive capacity to climate variability
and change in water management in
Brazil
Using survey data from eighteen
river basin committees and consortia
across different regions, this project
explores the implications of the
use of technoscientific knowledge,
including climate information, to
foster adaptation and democracy in
the management of vulnerable water
resources.
Adaptation of societies for sustainable
development
This project aims to improve
our understanding of why some
societies, groups, or individuals
adapt to risks and hazards better
than others.
Weather derivatives and climate
policy
Examining the relationships between
weather derivatives, emissions
trading, and climate change policy,
particularly focusing upon the
energy industry.
Global Environmental Change and
Food Systems (GECAFS)
GECAFS is a comprehensive
programme of interdisciplinary
research focused on understanding
the links between food security and
global environmental change.
Climate Communication Research
Climate change communications
have been increasingly recognized
as key contributors – among a
number of factors – that affect
climate change science and policy
discourse as well as shape actions.
Translation has taken shape through
many media, from news publishers,
editors, and journalists who
disseminate information, largely
through newspapers, magazines,
television, radio and the internet,
to graphic designers, architects,
painters, and sculptors.
The intersection of mass media and
climate change science and policy is
a dynamic and “high-stakes” arena
of communications.
CommunicationProjects
Mass media influences on climate
science, policy, and the public
Comparative analyses of public
discourse between the United States
and the United Kingdom on climate
change at the triple interface of
science, policy, and mass media.
Celebrity involvement in climate
change science, media, and policy
Examining the role of climate
change-related celebrity endeavours
and initiatives, and interrogating
how these activities influence
discourse and actions at the climate
science and policy interface.
Key Publications
West, C. C. and Gawith, M.
J. (Eds) (2005) Measuring
Progress: preparing for climate
change through the UK Climate
Impacts Programme.
Frame D., Stone D., Stott P.
and Allen M. 2006. “Alternatives
to stabilization scenarios.”
Geophysical Research Letters
33(14).L14707.
Liverman D.M. 2006. Survival
into the Future in the Face of
Climate Change. Survival: The
Survival of the Human Race
(2006 Darwin Lectures).
E. Shuckburgh (Ed) Cambridge,
Cambridge University Press:
187-205.

Global Environmental Change and Food
Systems (GECAFS) is an international,
interdisciplinary research project
focused on understanding the links
between food security and global
environmental change. Professor Diana
Liverman is Chair of the Scientific
Advisory Committee and ECI hosts the
International Project Office.
GECAFS’ Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the
impacts of global environmental change
(GEC) on food systems and to assess
the environmental and socio-economic
consequences of adaptive responses
aimed at improving food security.
This goal will be achieved by improving
understanding of the interactions
between food systems and the Earth
System’s key socioeconomic and
biogeophysical components. The
research agenda is specifically targeted
towards delivering the new science
necessary to underpin policy formulation
for improving food security in the face
of GEC.
GECAFS’ Aims
•
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•
Investigate how GEC affects food
security at regional scale;
Determine options to adapt regional
food systems to cope with GEC and
changing demands for food;
Assess how potential adaptation
options will affect the environment,
societies, and economies;
Engage the international global
environmental change and
development communities in policy
discussions to improve food security.
Research
Conceptual and methodological
research on:
• Food Systems, to improve
understanding of the interactions
between food systems and GEC.
•
•
•
Vulnerability and adaptation, to
(i) integrate social science and
natural science concepts of what
makes a food system vulnerable to
GEC; and (ii) use this understanding
to investigate adaptation options.
Scenarios to construct plausible
futures of socioeconomic and
environmental conditions for food
system analyses.
Decision Support to improve dialogue
between scientists and policy-makers
on the interactions between food
security and environment.
Regional Research
Conceptual and methodological
research is integrated with studies on
vulnerability and impacts, adaptation,
and feedbacks in:
•
•
•
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Caribbean
Southern Africa
Through this research GECAFS delivers
science-based tools and products,
including:
• An analytical framework for food
systems research (based on
activities related to producing,
processesing, distributing, trading,
and consuming food, and food
security issues related to food
availability, access, and use) to help
assess food system sensitivities to
GEC and identify adaptation options;
• Analytical methods to assess the
factors that make food systems
vulnerable to GEC, and to assess
policy and management options for
reducing exposure to risk and/or
increasing coping capacity to deal
with environmental stresses caused
by GEC;
• Region-specific scenarios of future
socioeconomic, ecological, and
environmental conditions involving
food systems;
• Decision support approaches to help
communicate GEC issues to policymakers
and to analyse how different
adaptation options for food systems
may affect the environment, society
and, economies; and
Science Advisory Committee
Diana Liverman - Chair,
Environmental Change
Institute, University of Oxford,
UK
Ahsan Ahmed, Bangladesh
Unnayan Parishad Bangladesh
Hans-Georg Bohle, University of
Bonn, Germany
Angela Cropper, Cropper
Foundation, Trinidad & Tobago
Oran Hesterman, WK Kellogg
Foundation, USA
Barbara Huddleston, UN-FAO
Italy
John Ingram - Secretary, GECAFS
IPO, UK
Anne-Marie Izac - Vice Chair
Future Harvest Alliance Office,
CGIAR, Italy
Jim Jones, University of Florida,
USA
Richard Mkandawire, New
Partnership for Africa’s
Development, South Africa
Prabhu Pingali, UN-FAO, Italy
Mark Rosegrant, International
Food Policy Research Institute,
USA
Mahendra Shah, International
Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Austria
Luis Vieira, EMBRAPA, Brazil
International Project Office Secretary: John Ingram
•
Assessment of a number of current
regional food systems, their
vulnerability to GEC, and their policy
contexts for possible adaptation
options.
More info at: www.gecafs.org
•
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Informing international climate
policy research programme
Leader: Professor Diana Liverman, Oxford
Deputy Leaders: Dr Mark New, Oxford
Dr Alex Haxeltine, University of East Anglia.
ECI and the Oxford University
Centre for the Environment
(OUCE) are now one of the 6 core
partners for the new Phase 2 of
the Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, the UK’s
principal consortium mobilizing
climate change science and policy
research. The other core partners
are the Universities of East
Anglia, Manchester, Newcastle,
Southampton, and Sussex. The
Tyndall Centre brings together
scientists, economists, engineers
and social scientists, who together
are working to develop sustainable
responses to climate change through
trans-disciplinary research and
dialogue on both a national and
international level - not just within
the research community, but
also with business leaders, policy
advisors, the media and the public.
Tyndall Research Strategy
Tyndall Phase 2, running from
2006-2009, has been designed to be
relevant to the emerging needs of
climate change policy as well as the
strategic priorities of three of the
UK’s Research Councils: the Natural
Environment Research Council
(NERC), the Engineering and
Physical Sciences Research Council
(EPSRC), and the Economic and
Social Research Council (ESRC).
The research strategy is based
around 7 Programmes (see box),
with ECI responsible for leading
Research Programme 1, ‘Informing
International Climate Policy’.
Research Programme 1
Informing international climate
policy: how can international action
on climate change be effectively
developed after 2012 (i.e. the
end of the Kyoto Protocol’s ‘first
commitment period’)?
Programme Leader:
Professor Diana Liverman
Deputy Leaders: Dr Mark New
(OUCE) and Dr Alex Haxeltine
(University of East Anglia).
Aims and objectives
The overall aim for Research
Programme 1 is to provide targeted
and strategic input of research
and assessment knowledge to
the development of plans for the
international climate regime after
2012. This aim will be pursued
through these objectives:
1. to quantify the damages and
benefits implied by different
levels of climate change and to
assess the “benefits of climate
policy” under different options
for the post-2012 regime;
2. to provide policy-relevant
analysis of different options for
global climate governance after
2012, including assessment
using integrated modelling of
both mitigation technologies
and adaptation potentials;
3. to facilitate international
dialogue and understanding
around the future of the
climate regime by focusing on
post-2012 options for selected
critical regions;
4. to re-frame and analyse the role
of non-nation state actors in the
international climate regime;
5. to develop methods for
attributing extreme climatic
events to anthropogenic causes
and to analyse the associated
policy implications.
Oxford’s Sub-Department of
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and
Planetary Physics is leading the
research on Research Programme
1 objective 5, on attribution, and
the OUCE is also playing a major
role in Research Programme 4,
‘International Development and
Climate Change’.
Tyndall Research Programmes
1. Informing international climate policy...
how can international action on climate
change be effectively developed after
2012?
2. Constructing energy futures... what are
the pathways to global de-carbonisation?
3. Building resilience to climate change...
what are the limits to adaptation?
4. International development... how can
international development be sustained in
a warming world?
5. Sustainable coasts... how can shorelines
be managed for the third millennium?
6. Engineering cities... how can cities
grow while reducing vulnerability and
emissions?
7. Integrated modeling... innovating
integrated assessment systems.

10
The UK Climate Impacts Programme
(UKCIP) was established by the
Government in 1997 and has been
hosted since then at the ECI. The
current contract (2005 – 2010) is
worth £4m, and defines UKCIP’s
aims as:
• to improve knowledge and
understanding of the impacts
of climate change among
stakeholders; and
• to help stakeholders to be
better equipped to undertake
adaptation to climate change.
UKCIP has not undertaken research
in the conventional sense, but
supports its stakeholders to
commission and manage research
into climate change impacts and
adaptation. At the start, our activity
focussed on delivering climate
change impacts research outputs,
but has since evolved into a way of
partnership working to make best
use of research results. Twelve subnational
“regional” impact scoping
studies have been completed along
with a number of sectoral studies.
However, we believe the consequent
formation of twelve active regional
adaptation partnerships and a small
number of sectoral partnerships is a
more significant outcome.
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
UKCIP now sees itself as an
interface organisation, working in
the communication space between
science, society and policy. UKCIP
is founded on the premise that
whatever actions society takes
to address the causes of climate
change, some change is now
inevitable and society needs to
adapt to those changes. Our role in
this adaptation process is both as
agents of change and as students
of that change. We express this
complexity in the phrase “learning
through doing” which we see as a
means of addressing both of our
aims.
A unique feature of UKCIP is that we
are led by our stakeholders, a group
we define as professional decisionmakers
in the UK, from the public,
private and voluntary sectors.
Our dialogue with stakeholders is
now framed in terms of risk and
uncertainty: the presentation of
adaptation to climate change as
management of climate risk allows
decision-makers to hear familiar
words, and makes climate change
a more immediate issue. We make
the various sorts of uncertainty
explicit and present it as another
variable to be managed. In the
UKCIP typology of adaptation, we
contribute to “building adaptive
capacity” in our stakeholders, while
only our stakeholders, with their
own motivation and attitude to risk,
can begin “delivering adaptation
actions”.
Among the key resources that
UKCIP offer are a core set of
tools for stakeholders, including
scenarios of climate change in the
UK; socio-economic scenarios;
guidance on specific topics; a
framework for managing risk and
uncertainty; and a methodology for
costing impacts and adaptations.
Currently, we are working on the
next set of climate information
(UKCIP08) which will be based on
probabilistic predictions of climate;
will incorporate a well-described
downscaling tool; and will be
presented via a user-customisable
web interface. This tool will be
launched in 2008. Our role will be
to oversee the integration of these
components and the provision of
guidance and training on the use of
the tool.
This last aspect is seen as
increasingly important so UKCIP
now has a training specialist on the
staff who will be running workshops
on the proper use of existing tools,
as well as devising a learning
plan for users of the new set of
climate information, and a means
of empowering our stakeholders to
act for us in raising awareness of
climate change, of impacts, and of
the need to adapt.
Further tools are also under
development: the prototype
Adaptation Wizard is being revised;
guidance on adaptation options
is in draft form, and an illustrative
database of adaptation actions is
being prepared, so stakeholders
can see what others have done.
Two constituencies for whom we
have made special provision are
the business community and local
authorities. For businesses, we
developed a tool (Business Areas
CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool
– BACLIAT) to allow exploration of

impacts throughout all the business
areas in the supplier-processcustomer
chain. We have worked
with regulators, professional bodies,
and trade associations in order to
multiply our effort and we have a
joint programme with a professional
body, the Chartered Institution of
Building Service Engineers (CIBSE),
to look at changing professional
standards to reflect the changing
climate.
The Nottingham Declaration
commits its signatories – mostly
local authorities – to make progress
on the parallel agendas of adapting
to, and mitigating, climate change.
Working in partnership with
local authority organisations and
others, UKCIP has devised the
adaptation thread of the Nottingham
Declaration Action Pack (NDAP)
which gives local authorities an
online framework within which they
can establish a project, design a
way forward to implementation and
monitor the outcome, using terms
and approaches familiar to the
sector.
Furthermore, we are now working
with some of the councils very
local to us, with a view to learning
(about adaptation) through doing
(adaptation with the councils).
One task we have focused on is
to encourage Oxfordshire County
Council to quantify the recent
costs of extreme weather impacts
– a process which we hope will
deliver the first Local Climate
Impacts Profile (LCLIP). This will be
a prototype of a generic method
of exploring future vulnerability by
setting up a system to collect and
use existing impact and adaptation
data.
Director:
Dr Chris West
Information about UKCIP’s
work, and access to its
publications, tools and other
resources can be found at
www.ukcip.org.uk.
Nottingham Declaration
Action Pack
www.nottinghamdeclaration.org.uk.
UKCIP’s enews is a monthly
newsletter containing
updates on latest news,
research and other
information on climate
change impacts and
adaptation. To subscribe
(free of charge) go to
www.ukcip.org.uk/subscribe.asp.
To get in touch with UKCIP,
email enquiries@ukcip.org.uk
or call 01865 285717.
11

1
biodiversity
With increasing pressures on our
environment as a result of climate
change and anthropogenic impacts,
ECI’s Biodiversity Research aims to
increase understanding of complex
human-climate-ecosystem interactions.
The ECI’s Biodiversity research is at the
forefront of integrating and improving
techniques for the projection of the
impacts of environmental change on
ecosystems and species. We are using
increasingly sophisticated modelling
techniques to assess potential
changes in distributions of species
and ecosystems at local, regional and
European scales.
Species and ecosystems are important
for the services they provide to
humans and we are investigating
how climate change could
affect their ability to
fulfill this role.
Models show
that
Leader:
Dr Pam Berry
there could be some profound effects
over the course of this century as
species and ecosystems become more
vulnerable. So we are now exploring
possible adaptation actions across
a range of sectors and their impact
in offsetting some of the negative
effects. In all projects we are working
with stakeholders to influence the
conservation agenda at all levels.
Projects
RUBICODE - Rationalising
Biodiversity Conservation in
Dynamic Ecosystems
www.rubicode.net
A key problem in developing policies
to stop biodiversity loss is translating
threats into a tangible factor for
decision-making. RUBICODE will
contribute to solving this by defining
and evaluating those components of
biodiversity which provide specific
services to society, such as the
provision of food, fibre and fuel,
regulation of air and water quality,
flood protection, pollination,
control of pests, recreation
and ecotourism. This
will increase our
understanding of the
value of biodiversity
services and,
consequently,
of the cost
of losing
them.
This, in
turn,
will give decision-makers a more rational
base and will help the understanding
of the need for adequate conservation
policies.
The development of flexible and
effective conservation strategies and
their implementation will be essential
in order to halt the loss of biodiversity.
These should concentrate on managing
dynamic ecosystems for maintaining
their capacity to undergo disturbance,
while retaining their functions, services
and control mechanisms (‘ecological
resilience’). RUBICODE, an EU
Coordination Action Project involving
23 partners, will address these issues
through seven project objectives:
1. To develop concepts of dynamic
ecosystems and their services,
covering terrestrial and freshwater
ecosystems.
2. To explore relationships between
service-providing populations,
ecosystem resilience, function
and health, and socio-economic
and environmental drivers of
biodiversity change.
3. To improve and test indicators
for monitoring habitat ecological
quality.
4. To characterise biological traits
that lead to a population becoming
threatened, rare or invasive.
5. To develop habitat management
strategies that take account of
drivers of biodiversity change
in order to maintain threatened
populations or assist populations
to adapt.
6. To suggest priorities for
conservation policy on the basis
of dynamic ecosystems and the
services they provide.
7.
To propose a roadmap for
future research required to
develop innovative pan-European
conservation strategies.

BRANCH: Biodiversity
Requires Adaptations in
North West Europe under a
Changing Climate
www.branchproject.org
Climate change is already influencing
the wildlife of NW Europe. Sea level
rise is affecting coasts and could lead
to unprecedented rates of change to
coastal landscape and wildlife. Climate
change and wildlife responses will
continue to happen for at least another
generation, even if we take all possible
life-style, economic and political
measures to stop fuelling the change.
Understanding and projecting the
response of wildlife is critical to enable
us to manage this response.
BRANCH is a three year multi-partner,
multi-project programme aiming to
identify, develop and advocate spatial
planning mechanisms to allow for the
adaptation of terrestrial and coastal
biodiversity to changing climate in
NW Europe. BRANCH will provide
the evidence and recommendations
to support policy and planning at
all scales by taking further the
science underpinning how our wildlife
might respond to the changes. This
information will provide an analysis
of the risks and benefits of planning
options for responding to change in
terrestrial and coastal habitats and
developing good practice. Natural
England is the lead partner in this
project bringing together partners in
South East England, the Netherlands,
Germany and France.
MONARCH: Modelling
Natural Resource Responses
to Climate Change
MONARCH is a phased investigation
into the impacts of climate change on
the nature conservation resources of
Britain and Ireland. It is an important
step towards understanding the
complex interactions between climate
change, species and habitats. The
first phase of MONARCH developed a
model, SPECIES, that projects areas
of potential suitable climate space
for species at a 10km resolution, and
provides a guide to the possible future
distribution of a species within Britain
and Ireland.
MONARCH 2 sought to develop this
approach at the local and regional
scale, downscaling the model to a
1km resolution within four case study
areas of up to 2500 square kms. The
original SPECIES climate-space model
was expanded to consider the role
of land cover in influencing species’
distributions, the ability of species
to disperse in response to climatic
and land cover changes, and also the
potential effect of these responses
on the structure and function of
ecosystems.
MONARCH 3 has automated the
SPECIES model and applied it to
120 Biodiversity Action Plan species.
The model was also validated by
hindcasting, using historical species’
distribution data. In addition, the
modelling was refined to include
ensemble forecasting to reduce withinmodel
uncertainty and subsequently
used to quantify uncertainty resulting
from projections of future climate.
MACIS: Minimisation of, and
adaptation to, climate change
impacts on biodiversity
www.macis-project.net
MACIS is an EU project which will review
and meta-analyse existing projections of
climate change impacts on biodiversity.
It will assess available options to
prevent and minimise negative impacts
for EU countries up to 2050 and review
the state of the art on methods to
assess the probable future impacts of
climate change on biodiversity.
The strategic objectives of MACIS
include:
• To review the state of the art on
methods to assess the probable
future impacts of climate change
on biodiversity.
• To review possible climate change
adaptation and mitigation measures
and their potential effect on future
biodiversity.
• To further develop a series of
biodiversity and habitat models
that address biodiversity impacts,
and are capable of calculating the
consequences of changes in the
trends in drivers as specified by the
narrative scenarios provided by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).
• To identify policy options at EU,
national, regional and local levels
to prevent and minimise negative
impacts from climate change and
from climate change adaptation
and mitigation measures.
Biodiversity, Climate Change
and Regional Policy
This research project will inform regional
decision-makers about the likely impacts
of climate change on biodiversity and of
the policy implications of such impacts.
The three year project will ascertain
how characteristic species and their
habitats in each of England’s regions
will be affected by climate change over
the next 50 years, and provide clear
concise guidance for those involved
in the decision-making process. It is
envisaged that this will be of particular
relevance to regional spatial planning
and associated activities.
Key Publications
Berry, P.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A.,
Harrison, P.A. and Audsley, E.
(2006). Assessing the vulnerability
of agricultural land use
and species to climate change
and the role of policy in facilitating
adaptation.Environmental
Science and Policy, 9, 189-204.
del Barrio, G., Harrison, P.A.,
Berry, P.M., Butt, N., Sanjuan,
M., Pearson, R.G. and Dawson,
T. (2006). Integrating multiple
modelling approaches to predict
the potential impacts of climate
change on species’ distributions
in contrasting regions: comparison
and implications for policy.
Environmental Science and
Policy, 9, 129-147.
Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M., Butt,
N. and New, M. (2006). Modelling
climate change impacts
on species’ distributions at the
European scale: Implications
for conservation policy. Environmental
Science and Policy, 9,
116-128.
Berry, P.M., Harrison, P.A.,
Dawson, T.P. and Walmsley,
C.A. (2005). Climate change
and nature conservation in the
UK and Ireland: modelling
natural resource responses to
climate change (MONARCH2).
UKCIP report.
1

Ecosystem Dynamics
1
“We seek to
understand how
ecosystems
function; and
how they may
be affected by
direct human
pressures and
global atmospheric
change.”
Leader:
Dr Yadvinder Malhi
Jackson Fellow
The ECI Ecosystem Dynamics Programme
seeks to understand how
contemporary ecosystems function;
and how they may be affected by
direct human pressures and global
atmospheric change. The tools we
employ in our research include:
• Intensive field observation of
carbon, water and nutrient cycling;
vegetation and soil properties;
plant ecophysiology; and
climate.
• Multi-decadal and large-scale
monitoring and analysis of ecosystem
structure, composition
and dynamics.
• Quantitative modelling of ecosystem
ecophysiology and biogeochemical
cycling.
• Satellite remote sensing at local,
regional and global scales.
• Macro-ecological analysis of
plant function and traits.
Our interests are global, but we have
particularly active research in the
lowland tropical forests of Amazonia
and Africa, the montane forests
of the Andes, and the temperate
woodlands of the UK.
Projects
Examining the effect of recent
drought in Amazonia
The severe drought which affected
Amazonia in 2005 provides a unique
opportunity to assess the impact
and responses of biodiversity to extreme
conditions. The drought was
recorded as the most intense dry
period in the region since weather
records began in the mid-20th Century.
With its problems comes the
unique opportunity to evaluate the
impacts and the response of biodiversity
to extreme conditions, which
may be analogous to future climates
in a warming world.
Described as the ‘global centre of
tree diversity’, and containing between
a quarter and a third of the
world’s biodiversity, the Amazon is a
vital component of the biosphere. In
the last 25 years biomass and forest
growth rates in intact Amazonian
forests have been rising, possibly
resulting in a moderate carbon sink,
but this may be under threat from
climate change. This study aims to
use the recent drought to examine
how these tropical humid systems
respond to intense drought, assess
their recovery, and possible subsequent
decline.
North-west Amazonia in particular
usually has no dry season, and
vegetation there is expected to be
unlikely to adapt to even modest
seasonal drought. Therefore, impacts
are likely to exist at many levels,
as shown by earlier studies. They
are expected to include: increases
in rates of tree mortality; increased
litterfall; changes in rates of leaf production
and leaf loss; physiological
effects of drought stress; and inhibition
of photosynthesis.
The main objectives of the project
are to map the spatial and temporal
extent of the drought; to discover
the drought’s impact on tree-level
ecological indicators and on standlevel
ecological indicators (biomass,
growth, mortality, mode of mortality,
composition); and to quantify
drought responses and recovery of
ecosystem processes.
Climate change from the Amazon to
the Andes
We have embarked on a major research
programme in the Andes,
using a transect of study sites ranging
from the lowland Amazon forest
to the high Andes to understand
what determines the carbon dynamics
of Andean montane forests, and
how this may be altered by climate
change. Our field studies will focus
on a valley in the Peruvian Andes,
near Cuzco.
With funding from the Natural Environment
Research Council and
the Moore Foundation, seven members
of the Ecosystem Dynamics
Group are working on this project.
Although some initial fieldwork has
already started, our major fieldwork
investment will start in March 2007.

Pan-Amazonia Project: for the
Advancement of Networked Science
in Amazonia
Pan-Amazonia is an interdisciplinary
research project coordinated by
the ECI and supported by the European
Commission under the FP6
programme. The project encompasses
three integrated scientific
networks designed to meld together
currently disparate research efforts
across the Amazon Basin in terms
of global change and tropical forest
ecosystem function. Pan-Amazonia
involves over 70 researchers from
10 Latin American and 9 European
countries linked together with the
overall aim of advancing our longterm
understanding of Amazonian
forest structure and function in the
face of global change. The project
is also training 11 South American
young researchers in state-of-the-art
scientific techniques.
RAINFOR: Amazon Forest Inventory
Network
RAINFOR is an international network
that has been established to
monitor the biomass and dynamics
of Amazonian forests. Support has
come from the European Commission,
the Max-Planck Institute
for Biogeochemistry (Germany),
the National Geographic Society
(US), the UK Natural Environment
Research Council (NERC) and
the Royal Society. The project was
founded by scientists at the ECI
and School of Geography in Leeds,
and involves most of the Amazonian
countries. In recent years RAINFOR
has contributed major advances in
our understanding of tropical rainforests,
resulting in over a dozen
publications in major journals.
LBA Project: Large Scale Biosphere-
Atmosphere Programme in Amazonia
LBA is an international research
programme led by Brazil, and considered
the largest project of international
scientific cooperation ever
created in the environmental area.
LBA seeks to create the knowledge
base and network for understanding
how Amazonia functions as a regional
entity, including the climatological,
ecological, biochemical, and
hydrological interactions. ECI has
a number of projects within LBA,
with a particular focus on long-term
measurements at a rainforest site at
Caxiuana, in the eastern Brazilian
Amazon.
Real Time Deforestation Detection
Project
The DETER ‘Near Real Time Deforestation
Detection System’, developed
by the Brazilian space agency,
INPE, uses remote sensing techniques
to detect land cover changes
within the Brazilian Amazon area.
The research is carried out using
MODIS remote sensors with high
temporal observation frequency on
board NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites.
At Oxford we are exploring the
expansion of the DETER approach
to the wider Amazon region, and to
the African and Asian tropics.
QUERCC: Quantifying the Ecosystem
Role in the Carbon Cycle
QUERCC is a NERC funded consortium
that addresses land surface
processes over timescales from days
to centuries, with particular emphasis
on the carbon cycle. Some processes
are already well represented
and validated in Dynamic Global
Vegetation Models (DGVMs), while
others that are known to impact on
the carbon cycle are not. Independent
carbon and vegetation data sets
are being compared against DGVMs
to assess their current state, and further
key modules will be developed
for nutrient cycling (which exerts
a major feedback on carbon exchange)
and for a greater resolution
of plant processes. A global map
of plant functional types that exert
significant impacts on the carbon
cycle will also be developed. ECI is
focusing on plant nitrogen modeling
(fixation, uptake, allocation) within
the DGVM.
TROBIT: Tropical Biomes in Transition
TROBIT is a NERC-funded consortium
project looking at what drives
changes in vegetation structure
across wet-dry transitions in the
tropics. Its focus is on fieldwork in
Africa, Australia and South America.
ECI’s role within this consortium
is to compile climatic data for these
regions, and to use remote sensing
techniques to look at vegetation
structure and phenology.
Climate change and carbon dynamics
at Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire
Wytham Woods is an ancient
broadleaved woodland just outside
of Oxford. Since 2004 we have been
studying the carbon dynamics of a
one hectare patch of this woodland
(in collaboration with the Centre for
Ecology and Hydrology), with a particular
focus on understanding how
seasonal variations in temperature,
water supply and light affect ecosystem
dynamics. Over the 21st Century
southern England is projected
to experience more frequent summer
droughts, and our long-term
goal is to understand how climate
change will affect British woodlands.
In 2007 the measurements will be
expanded to include the transfer of
carbon dioxide and water above the
forest canopy.
Key Publications
Malhi Y, Wood D, Baker TR, et al.
(2006) The regional variation of
aboveground live biomass in oldgrowth
Amazonian forests. Global
Change Biology 12 (7): 1107-1138.
Barbier N, Couteron P, Lejoly J, et
al. (2006) Self-organized vegetation
patterning as a fingerprint of
climate and human impact on
semi-arid ecosystems. Journal of
Ecology 94 (3): 537-547.
Roman-Cuesta RM, Martinez-Vilalta
J (2006) Effectiveness of protected
areas in mitigating fire within their
boundaries: Case study of Chiapas,
Mexico. Conservation Biology 20
(4): 1074-1086.
1

16
Human Ecology
The ECI’s Human Ecology research
focuses on the cultural, social, and
political aspects of environmental
management and the interaction
between people and the ecosystem.
We see humans as part of
ecosystems - not as actors having an
effect on the environment ‘out there’,
but each one of us as part of the
environment of everyone else and
as part of the environment of every
other species.
Human ecology is also a
methodology as much as an area of
research. Not only is human ecology
interdisciplinary (integrating lessons
from biology, development studies,
political ecology, psychology, and
anthropology, among others), it
is also participatory, experiential,
and reflexive. Examples of the
questions we research include:
‘How do our cultural, social and
political interactions affect nature,
informally or formally?’ and ‘How
can environmental management and
‘biodiversity conservation’ take on
board the ideas and understanding
of human ecology: the importance
of human values and the diversity of
those values?’
Human Ecology research approach
The common thread through all
our projects is a participatory
approach to learning. This helps
to elicit different values and
knowledge, enable assessment of
the compatibility of information
needs and perceptions of the
different stakeholder groups, and
allow the values and knowledge
of marginalised stakeholders to
be given a more prominent role in
decision-making.
Projects
Sustainable harvests of medicinal
plants from community forests
“Few projects have had a greater
impact on the target community or
have achieved more towards meeting
their long term objectives.” Reviewer
for UK Department for International
Development (DfID).
In collaboration with NGO partners
and four communities in India
and Nepal this project addressed
the question “Can non-timber
forest products (NTFPs) provide
communities with a reliable
livelihood at the same time as
conserving species and habitats?”.
Scientific methods were combined
with participatory approaches to
identify drivers of change in NTFP
populations and forest quality, and
help village research committees
formulate testable hypotheses
and establish monitoring and
experimental plots, in a scientifically
and socially acceptable manner. The
results stimulated recommendations
for management guidelines and
regulations for NTFPs. The scientific
basis of the participatory approach
also improved respect between the
foresters and forest users.
The ECI’s methodology has
contributed to DfID’s goals
of supporting environmental
sustainability in the interests of poor
people’s livelihoods by providing
tools to reduce variability and risk
in production and has enhanced
institutional capacity for decisionmaking.
The project is included
in the top 20% of DfID renewable
natural resource research projects
to go into a new Research Into Use
Programme (RIUP), which aims
to maximise the poverty-reducing
impact of the research outputs in
Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Participatory forest management for
herbal medicinal production in Peru
In a similar project on sustainable
harvesting, ECI and a Peruvian
partner, Centro EORI, are working
with indigenous communities on
a 20-year plan for the cultivation
of medicinal plants. The project
includes a book on indigenous
knowledge of these plants, and a
market study to guide communities
in identifying species with economic
potential, and finding business
partners and available markets.
The black poplar: insights into UK
Biodiversity Action Plans
The UK has a unique and
highly structured approach to
biodiversity conservation through
its Biodiversity Action Plans
(BAPs). How do these affect local
conservation planning and practice?
We used a cross-cutting study of
35 local BAPs to examine how
black poplar has been treated.
This species possibly has cultural
as well as ecological significance,
contributing to the remarkable
diversity of ways in which it has
been included or excluded by
LBAPs. The study finds LBAPs to
be a blend of personal preference,
intuitive practice, and political
pragmatism – a blend which works,
given funding constraints and the
need to rely on existing interest
groups. Criticisms that the ‘rational
planning’ approach focuses too

much on numerical targets appear
to be justified, and more attention is
now being turned to the ecological
impacts of such plans.
Citizen science and community
participation in Protected Area
Management: a new approach for
European Transition Countries
Through its new and acceding
member states the European Union
has inherited an impressive array
of protected areas and traditional
agricultural landscapes with a
wealth of biodiversity that has long
been lost in western member states.
New EU policy and changes in
conservation philosophy provide
openings and challenges for the
central and eastern countries of
Europe.
These include the shift from
centralised, hierarchical planning
to participatory approaches
which recognise the value of local
knowledge, local commitment
to place, and traditional customs
and rules for protecting resources.
Current participatory approaches
rely either on a strong civil society
sector (as in western Europe)
or on rural communities who
depend on their own resources and
develop their own user rules (as in
developing countries). New models
of participatory conservation are
therefore needed in post-socialist
Europe.
ECI is testing a model for
community participation in
protected areas in the northern
Carpathians of Romania (the Rodna
Mountains National Park) as part of
a UK Government Darwin Initiative
funded project. The approach
recognises that participation is
a new concept for many of the
stakeholders, and therefore builds
on existing relationships of trust
within communities and schools.
Activities include school children
documenting local and traditional
knowledge about the national park;
schools forming ‘Friends of Rodna
Mountains’ clubs, focusing on the
specific interests of their school (eg,
art); and Friends clubs contributing
to the implementation of the
management plan, by selecting
specific plants or animals to study,
with training in GIS (Geographical
Information Systems). This also
allows the park administration to
consolidate, analyse and map all the
data.
This approach provides a model
which is culturally and politically
appropriate. It is being evaluated
and adapted at interactive multistakeholder
workshops nationally
(Nov 2006) and internationally (late
2007).
Community forests and small-scale
forestry in Romania
In common with other former-
Soviet countries in Central and
Eastern Europe, Romania initiated a
process of ‘restitution’ – the return
of state-appropriated property to
pre-communist owners soon after
the restoration of democracy.
Restitution of forests is notoriously
problematic and controversial,
and ECI research is highlighting
the difficult experiences of rural
households, as they have coped
with losing their forests to the
state, regarding the forests as state
property, and then engaging with
the tangled restitution process to get
their forests back.
The diversity of these experiences
provide signposts to the future to
improve the social, institutional and
ecological sustainability of forests,
Key Publications
Leader: Dr Anna Lawrence
including:
1. Establishing examples of good
practice;
2. Education and training:
practical initiatives to integrate
environmental and cultural
values into school curricula;
communication training for
foresters; and management
training for forest owners;
3. Support for associations of
forest owners to simplify
administration and governance;
4. Policy: taking account of the
strong diversity of ownership
and forest history; engaging
with the more abstract, pronature
values of city-based
owners and public;
5.
Media: addressing the negative
effects of foresters’ low selfesteem;
and promoting the
remarkable richness of cultural
attachment to the forest found
in rural Romania.
Lawrence A. and Hawthorne W.
(2006) Plant identification: creating
user-friendly field guides
for biodiversity management.
Earthscan, London.
Lawrence, A., Paudel, K.,
Barnes, R. and Y. Malla. 2006.
Adaptive value of participatory
biodiversity monitoring
in community forestry, Nepal.
Environmental Conservation
33(4):325-334.
Lawrence, A. (2006) “No
personal motive?” Volunteers,
biodiversity and the false
dichotomies of participation.
Ethics, Place and Environment 9
(3): 279-298.
1

1
James Martin 21st Century School
Research Fellows
ECI is a founding member of the new James Martin 1st Century School at Oxford. The School was created through
a munificent benefaction by Dr James Martin, with an objective to stimulate Oxford’s capacity for ‘the invention of
invention’. During the first three years of the 21st Century School the ECI’s involvement, led by Professor Diana
Liverman, is on two priority topics: climate change and environmental governance. Our association with the School
is enabling us to take a stronger international role in the analysis and formation of policies on climate change, international
environmental policy, and sustainable development.
In climate change there is a great need for research that clarifies uncertainties regarding regional impacts, vulnerabilities,
and economic costs to identify the most effective ways of reducing the risks in the context of sustainable and
equitable development paths.
ECI’s new research in environmental governance will lead theoretical and empirical work on new approaches such as
the effectiveness of pricing, privatisation, and changes in scale as ways of managing the global environment.
Dr Emily Boyd
Emily’s current focus is on exploring governance issues in the context
of global environmental change. In particular her research focuses on
aspects of climate change policy relating to development, including the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). She is focused on developing
understanding of scale, interplay, and institutions in managing climate
change and conservation of natural resources. Other research includes
understanding socio-ecological interactions, resilience and institutions
(e.g. property rights), in particular exploring the concepts of political and
institutional change, as well as social resilience; vulnerability; decision
support tools for environmental management; participatory processes;
and the science-policy interface.
Boyd, E., Gutierrez, M., Chang, M. Small-scale forest
carbon projects: Adapting CDM to low-income
communities. Global Environmental Change in press.
Dr Max Boykoff
Max is undertaking analyses of non-state actors at
the climate science-policy interface. Currently, he is
conducting comparative analyses of media coverage
of climate change between the United States
and the UK. He is also examining the role of climate
change-related celebrity endeavours, and is exploring
links between these projects and environmental
ethics as well as environmental justice social movements.
Previously, he has looked at how United
States mass-media coverage influences international
climate change science and policy cooperation
and conflict, and has explored how these relations
impact upon public understanding. Max’s research
uses insights from critical discourse analysis, political
economy, science studies, political ecology,
and sociology.
Boykoff, M. and J. Boykoff. (2004) Bias as Balance:
Global Warming and the U.S. Prestige Press. Global
Environmental Change (14)2, pp. 125-136.

Prof Maria carmen-lemos
Maria Carmen Lemos is an Associate
Professor at the University of Michigan’s
School of Natural Resources and Environment
where the overall focus of her
research is the intersection of technoscientific
knowledge and governance of
environmental issues. During her sabbatical
at ECI she investigated the role
of governance institutions in building
adaptive capacity to climate variability
and change in water management in
Brazil. Using survey data from eighteen
river basin committees and consortia
across different regions, she explores
the implications of the use of technoscientific
knowledge, including climate
information, to foster adaptation and
democracy in the management of vulnerable
water resources.
Eakin, H. and M.C. Lemos (2006).
Adaptation and the state: Latin America and
the challenge of capacity-building under
globalization. Global Environmental Change,
vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 7-18.
Dr Dave frame
Dave is looking at how uncertainties in
predictions of global climate change
models can affect climate policy, and
the role of ‘ensemble’ climate forecasts
and what they might imply. He is
interested in how understanding recent
and future global warming rates might
improve the questions policy makers
ask, as well as working on ways of
understanding the uncertainties in the
answers to those questions. He is also
interested in philosophical aspects of
climate research, especially questions
regarding foundational issues in climate
modelling. Formerly Dave was the coordinator
of climateprediction.net,
the world’s largest participatory
computer climate model, with 1/4million
contributors from over 150 countries.
Frame D. J., Stone D. A., Stott P. A., Allen
M. R. (2006) Alternatives to stabilisation
scenarios, Geophysical Letters 33 L14707.
Dr Cameron hepburn
Cameron is an environmental economist
specialising in climate policy and longterm
decision-making. He has recently
been working on the functioning of the
European emissions trading scheme,
instrument choice, adaptation finance,
and the absence of a clear carbon
price signal for business post-Kyoto
2012. He assisted the UK Government’s
Stern Review on the Economics of
Climate Change and is advising OECD
governments on their discounting
frameworks, which determine how a
balance is struck between short-term
and long-term public objectives. He is
a member of the Academic Panel for
the UK Government’s Department of
Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs
(DEFRA).
Hepburn, C., Neuhoff, K., Grubb, M.,
Matthes, F. and Tse, M. (2006) Auctioning of
EU ETS Phase II allowances: why and how?
Climate Policy 6:1, 137-160.
Dr samuel randalls
Sam’s research analyzes the nascent
weather derivatives market in relation
to contemporary themes in climate
policy. Can weather derivatives be
used to adapt to the costs of climate
change? How might weather derivatives
interact with the EU emissions trading
scheme and renewable energy
financing? These questions are
explored through empirical research
on weather derivatives examining
both the financial and meteorological
networks underpinning the market. This
work is informed through theoretical
approaches developed in human
geography and the sociology of
science.
Prof Timmons Roberts
While on sabbatical at the ECI, Timmons
is researching foreign aid and climate
change mitigation and adaptation in developing
nations. With special funds now
for adaptation and huge carbon trading
activities, the role of aid has been
under-studied. His project will consider
past aid and its impact on carbon emissions;
effectiveness of 1,600 specific
climate change aid projects; and case
studies of China, Brazil, and India. This
work builds on his book Greening Aid?
Understanding Foreign Assistance for
the Environment, analysing 430,000
aid projects between 1970 and 2001.
Timmons uses political economy theory
to explain unequal suffering by poor
nations of climate change impacts, unequal
responsibility for the problem, and
unequal participation in treaties such as
the Kyoto Protocol.
Roberts, J.T. and Hite, A., 2006. The Globalization
and Development Reader: Perspectives
on Development and Social Change (Second
Edition). Blackwell Publishers.
prof john schellnhuber
John is Founding Director of the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts
Research and a Distinguished Science
Adviser and former Research Director
of the UK’s Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research. He has recently been
appointed as the ‘Chief Sustainability
Scientist’ for the German Government
in the 2007 G8/EU twin presidency
and the overall post-Kyoto process.
His research has advanced crossdisciplinary
understanding of the crucial
processes involved in climate change.
He has contributed more than 230
pertinent articles and books and was,
for instance, Coordinating Lead Author
of the WG II synthesis chapter in the
Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. He
received an honorary CBE in recognition
of his accomplishments in climate
change science and diplomacy, and
he is an elected member of a number
of learned societies (including the US
National Academy of Sciences and the
German Max Planck Society). Oxford
now provides his UK base when not in
Germany.
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, 2006.
Edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Wolfgang
Cramer, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Tom Wigley,
Gary Yohe. Foreword by Rt Hon Tony Blair
MP, Introduction by Dr Rajendra Pachauri.
Dr Emma Tompkins
Emma researches how societies can
and should adapt to climate change.
Her current projects include societal
responses to natural hazards as an
analogy for preparing for climate
change; processes of institutional
learning and the role of international
conventions; drivers of private sector
responses to weather hazards; and
motivators of individual change. She
is focusing on 4 themes: knowledge
transfer across social groups and
cultural contexts; tools to support
climate change decision making; the
role of governance in enabling and
constraining climate change responses;
and identifying the psychological and
economic limits to adaptation. With
colleagues from the Caribbean she
recently wrote a manual on ‘Surviving
climate change in small islands; a
guidebook‘.
Tompkins, E. L. 2005. Planning for climate
change in small islands: Insights from
national hurricane preparedness in the
Cayman Islands. Global Environmental
Change 15 (2):139-143.
1

0
Energy
The climate is changing because of the way that
we – humans – use fossil fuels. As we are the
problem, it should be possible for us to be the
solution.
ECI’s Lower Carbon Futures Team (LCF) develops
policy ideas to support a transition to an
equitable, low-carbon society. The work is funded
by grants from UK research councils and the EU,
and through contracts with government departments
and clients from industry and civil society.
The focus is on policy analysis and the development
of innovative ideas for energy saving and
adoption of low-carbon energy generation technologies
in the medium- to long-term. The UK
Government’s target of a 60% cut in carbon dioxide
emissions by 2050 is taken as a given; every
year this becomes more challenging, as the UK
has achieved only minor carbon reductions since
1990.
We use computer modelling and back-casting
techniques (ie starting with long-term targets
and working backwards from the future to the
present) to analyse how current policy needs to
change. We typically develop scenarios using
bottom-up modelling techniques, built on detailed
options for how society and the economy might
develop. We explore the potential for reducing
demand for energy as well as developing low-carbon
supply options. By comparing these future
scenarios with current policy and practice, we
are able to highlight priorities for policy and set
out key strategic issues. New initiatives are urgently
needed if the 2050 target is to be met.
We work collaboratively with other academic
research groups and partners from government
and industry. At any one time we are normally
working with over a dozen such organisations.
Since October 2004, Brenda Boardman has
been a Co-Director of the UK Energy Research
Centre, leading the Demand Reduction theme.
Several members of the LCF team undertake this
research into all UK energy use, together with
colleagues in other universities.
LCF members produce policy proposals, research
reports, responses to government consultations
on energy and climate change, consultancy
reports, conference and journal papers,
presentations to a wide variety of audiences, and
contributions to the wider debate in the general
media.
Leader:
Dr Brenda Boardman MBE
Key Research Topics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Buildings
Energy Behaviour
Energy in the Developing World
Fuel Poverty
Lights and Appliances
Low Carbon Economy
Renewable Energy
Transport
Buildings Research
Our major report, 40% House, identified the scale of
the changes needed in the residential sector. The UK
Domestic Carbon Model (UKDCM) has been developed
and will be made publicly available early in 2007. The
research is now extending to the non-domestic sector,
through Building Market Transformation. This presents
an even greater challenge, as the base data are so poor.
Energy Behaviour Research
Energy systems are socio-technical - they are strongly
influenced by personal and social variables. We take
a particular interest in individual and social learning
about energy; the uses of feedback on consumption in
altering behaviour; and the changes in people’s ideas of
comfort over time. The importance – and the challenge
- of including behavioural factors is being recognised by
energy modellers and policy makers.
Energy in the Developing World Research
The research emphasis is on initiatives to lift the 2
billion people who lack access to modern or improved
energy services out of poverty, and combat problems
such as indoor air pollution and land degradation
caused by reliance on inefficient traditional forms of
energy. Sustainable energy is critical in meeting the
Millennium Development Goals to halve global poverty
by 2015, as safe, secure and efficient forms of energy
are vital to economic activity, healthcare, education,
transport, and protecting natural resources. Inefficient

energy sources also contribute to
climate change and increase reliance
on diminishing natural resources
or imported fuels, lessening energy
security.
Fuel Poverty Research
The problem of eradicating fuel
poverty in UK households has
increased with the doubling of
domestic energy prices since 2002.
The challenge for the Government
of meeting this legal obligation
and energy policy objective has
become acute. LCF research
assesses the impact of current and
possible future energy policies on
vulnerable households. A network
of researchers across Europe is
being established to enable the UK’s
experience to be shared with central
and eastern European countries,
where fuel poverty is an emergent
problem.
Lights and Appliances Research
LCF has a long-established database
of energy use in residential lights
and appliances, incorporating
ownership levels, energy efficiency
and usage patterns. This enables us
to create detailed scenarios for the
impact of lights and appliances in
the future and to inform EU and
UK policy. Our approach is based
on Market Transformation theory
and provides evidence that product
policies can lead to significant CO2
savings. As with buildings, this
research is now extending to the
use of lights and appliances in non-
domestic buildings. The equipment
may be the same, but the resultant
energy use is poorly understood.
Low Carbon Economy Research
How can carbon dioxide emissions
be best accounted for in relation
to all economic activity? Two key
policy instruments are taxation
and emissions trading, with each
approach having its pros and cons.
ECI contributes to this wider debate
in its work on Personal Carbon
Trading, analysing the detail of how
a future scheme might work, based
on emissions trading at the level of
the individual.
Renewable Energy Research
While some renewables provide
energy on demand (eg landfill
gas), the availability of others
changes according to local climate
characteristics. Our research
focuses on the resource properties
of wind, wave, tidal and solar
photovoltaic generating systems,
together with Combined Heat
and Power (CHP) systems. By
understanding the variability of
these (over time and in different
places around the UK), it is possible
to design and optimize a diverse
renewable energy portfolio that
provides greater resource reliability
and lower system variability (or
intermittency). This will in turn
affect key operational aspects of
the electricity grid, such as backup
capacity and load following capacity.
Transport Research
A major focus is on personal travel
profiles, identifying the contribution
to carbon emissions from different
travel patterns. A large proportion
of all emissions comes from the
highest 10% of users.
The debate on the potential conflicts
between climate change policy and
the expected growth in UK aviation
was the focus of an ECI publication:
Predict and decide – Aviation,
climate change and UK policy.
Key Publications
Cairns, S., Newson, C.,
Boardman, B. & Anable, J.
(2006) Predict and decide:
Aviation, climate change and UK
policy. ECI Research Report 33.
Boardman, B., Jardine, C. &
Lipp, J. (2006) Green Electricity
Code of Practice: A Scoping
Study.
Boardman, B., Darby, S.,
Killip, G., Hinnells, M., Jardine,
C., Palmer, J. and Sinden, G.
(2005) 40% House.
ECI Research
Report 31.
1

Energy:
Lower
CArbon
Futures
research
projects
Solar Schools
Enhancing sustainable energy
education, by providing
educational materials,
presentations, lists of websites
to visit, twinning of schools and
international competitions for both
primary and secondary schools.
Funders: European Commission ALTENER
Programme
Energy planning in developing
countries: facing the challenges of
equitable access, secure supply and
climate change
A research scoping study for UK
Department for International
Development, involving 3 African
and one UK research partners. Aims
to investigate the synergies and tradeoffs
present in energy planning in
Africa.
Funder: UK Department for International
Development ~ Partners: UK research partner:
ESD Ltd African research partners: PDG -
South Africa, CEEEZ - Zambia, ESDA - Kenya
Metering, billing, and displays
Most UK householders have
only a vague idea of how much
energy they are using for different
purposes. This report reviews
options for giving customers
feedback about their usage and
summarises what is known about
effects on behaviour.
Funder: UK Government Department of the
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
UK Energy Research Centre:
Demand Reduction Theme
How can we reduce the UK’s
burgeoning energy demand? The
programme leads national research
on new technologies and finding
ways of influencing consumer
behaviour whilst covering concerns
about distribution and affordability.
Funders: Research Councils: Engineering and
Physical Sciences (EPSRC), Economic and Social
(ESRC), Natural Environment (NERC)
Partners: Bath University, Robert Gordon
University
40% House
The first ever detailed agendasetting
exercise for a major
sector of energy use in a leading
industrialised country. 40% House
set out a plan for a 60% reduction
in carbon dioxide emissions by
2050 for all energy use in the
whole 25 million+ UK housing
stock, evaluating the behavioural
and technological changes
required.
Funders: Tyndall Centre
Partners: UMIST, Heriot Watt University
Green Electricity: Advising the
customer
With many different green
electricity products on the market,
customers are confused as to
which ones really are best for the
environment. The ECI developed
a Code of Practice for suppliers,
to ensure they give clear, accurate
information.
Funder: Good Energy
cRRescendo: Integrating sustainable
energy into homes
Developing sustainable and energyefficient
buildings for communities,
incorporating energy infrastructure
into 6,000 new and existing homes
in four European towns. ECI is
coordinating the policy, behavioural,
and non-technical research.
Funding: EC Concerto programme.
Partners: Ecofys, NV Nuon, English Partnerships,
Ove Arup, and the municipalities of
Ajaccio, Almere, Milton Keynes and Viladecans

Supergen: Highly Distributed Power
Systems
How would the electricity network
function effectively with millions
of small scale distributed electricity
generators? Within the SUPERGEN
consortium, ECI is modelling the
performance of solar photovoltaic
systems and looking into policies that
support and encourage the uptake of
household-scale energy generation.
Funders: Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council ~ Partners: The Turbo Genset
Company Ltd, Scottish Power, Rolls Royce plc,
Intelligent Power Systems Ltd
Integrated Travel Emissions Profiles
Investigating greenhouse gas
pollutant emissions and related
climate change impacts from
transport at the personal,
household and local levels.
Funders: Economic and Social Research
Council
Building MArket Transformation
BMT aims to explore what is
needed to achieve a 50 per cent
cut in carbon emissions from
buildings as quickly as possible.
Although there is significant
potential for existing technology
to reduce carbon emissions in
both domestic and non-domestic
buildings, improvements are
not being made. This applies
both to new buildings and the
refurbishment of existing ones.
The BMT project will explore
social and economic as well as
environmental considerations.
For example, people’s behaviour is
changing in relation to buildings
as they demand more space, heat,
hot water and appliances as living
standards improve. In looking
to develop policy solutions,
the initiative will also explore
institutional, legal and technical
UK Energy Research Centre:
Meeting Place
A networking hub for international
experts across all energy disciplines.
The Meeting Place hosts short
intensive sessions on horizon
scanning, agenda setting, and
promoting collaborative research on
sustainable energy economies.
Funders: Research Councils: Engineering and
Physical Sciences (EPSRC), Economic and
Social (ESRC), Natural Environment (NERC)
issues. A series of seminars will
involve key decision-makers from
industry and government to discuss
the changes necessary to achieve
such a cut. It will also develop a
publicly available computer model
of the UK’s building stock which
will enable policy measures to be
assessed in terms of their direct and
indirect impact on emissions.
BMT will help inform the future
direction of carbon-saving research
and policies. The aim is to help
develop a consensus between
industry and government about
what needs to be done, when and
how. Example reports and papers
include:
• The effectiveness of feedback on
energy consumption: a review
for the UK Government’s
Department of Environment,
Food, & Rural Affairs of the
Wind Power and the UK Wind
Resource
The long-term characteristics of
the UK wind resource, including
temporal and geographical
variability and intermittency.
Funders: UK Government’s Department of
Trade & Industry
•
•
•
•
literature on metering, billing,
and direct displays
Can Energy Services Companies
deliver low carbon new build
homes?
The cost of a 60% cut in CO 2
emissions from homes: what do
experience curves tell us?
Aiming at a 60% reduction
in CO 2 : implications for
residential lights, appliances,
and microgeneration
Liberating the power of Energy
Services and ESCOs in a
liberalised energy market
Funders: Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council (EPSRC), Carbon Trust
Partners: Universities of Bath, Cardiff, Strathclyde,
and Surrey

The new UK Energy Research
Centre’s mission is to be the UK’s
pre-eminent centre of research and
source of authoritative information
and leadership on sustainable energy
systems. UKERC undertakes worldclass
research addressing wholesystems
aspects of energy supply
and use, while developing and
maintaining the means to enable
cohesive UK research in energy.
As a lead partner of UKERC,
ECI manages The Meeting Place
which is the UK’s international
gateway for the energy research
community. Over the two years
since its inception in October 2004,
the Meeting Place has hosted 1,500
people from 35 countries at some 40
conferences and workshops. Several
of these events have been jointly
hosted with other institutions,
for example, the International
Energy Agency (IEA), the Italian
Government and the British
Institute of Energy Economics.
A diversity of audiences is one of
the driving themes for the Meeting
Place and these have included the
ministries of G8+5; UK Government
Departments (e.g. DTI, DfT, Defra);
NGOs such as Transport 2000,
Friends of the Earth and WWF;
and academics from a wide range
of disciplines. Businesses have
come from a wide range of sectors
including finance, construction,
engineering, and transport, as
well as energy, e.g. Arup, Barclays
Capital, BMW, BP, Centrica,
Corus, Crest Nicholson, E.ON ,
EcoSecurities, Faber Maunsell,
Halcrow, Phillips, Pilkingtons,
Prudential, Shell, SolarCentury,
Taylor Woodrow, Whitby Bird, and
Woolwich.
The Meeting Place uses a wide
variety of meeting formats to bring
together these diverse audiences and
promote effective interdisciplinary
working, including: large
conferences; short brainstorming
audio-conference sessions; series of
small workshops spread over several
months; medium-sized residential
workshops, lasting several days; and
longer visits by international visitors
lasting several weeks or months. The
vast and diverse array of facilities
offered by the departments and
colleges of Oxford University are
a valuable resource in this regard,
although the Meeting Place is able
to host events at other UK venues.
A flavour of Meeting Place activities
since its inception include:
• the Climate Change Metrics 2day
workshop, November 2004,
Oxford. This event brought
together experts from many
different professions and
disciplines to debate the merits of
different climate change metrics
options to enable inclusion of
other sectors and greenhouse
gases in the EU emissions trading
scheme, particularly aviation and
methane.
• the G8+ 5 Energy Research and
Innovation Workshop (WIRE),
May 2005, Oxford, co-sponsored
by the DTi and Defra. This major
international workshop brought
together senior policy officials
and researchers from G8 nations,
plus five developing nations
(Mexico, South Africa, China,
India and Brazil) to discuss
collaboration on clean energy and
innovation.
• the Italian Carbon Capture
and Clean Coal workshop,
February 2006, London. This
international workshop, hosted
jointly with the Italian Embassy,
aimed to strengthen UK/
Italian collaboration as a basis
for submitting joint projects
under the EU’s 7th Framework
programme.
•
•
the Innovation and Energy
Systems research workshop
series, March-September 2006,
Oxford. This two-part intensive,
collaborative and researchfocused
activity brought together
leading representatives from
economic, institutional and
management perspectives
to describe their respective
approaches to innovation in
energy systems, share knowledge
and insights, and come to a
greater degree of common
understanding. The output of
this series of workshops is a peerreviewed
book.
Annual UKERC Summer School,
July 2006, Edinburgh. This annual
activity brings together around
25 UK-based doctoral students
working on interdisciplinary
energy issues to undertake a oneweek
intensive energy training
programme. This event is run in
parallel with the UKERC general
assembly, also managed by the
Meeting Place.
Details of Meeting Place events,
including outputs such as reports,
are available from the website:
www.ukerc.ac.uk
The Meeting Place:
• is dedicated to furthering
policy and research agendas
through interdisciplinary problem-solving
events, networking
activities and interactions
with international visitors.
• provides a forum for proactive
debate of energy policy
issues
• pursues activities based on
proposals received from
members of the energy
research community.
• operates as an activity
development and management
service, rather than a
permanent physical location,
so providing flexibility in the
location and format of events.
•
brings together people from
many different disciplines
and professions that would
not normally meet or work
together.

Ecosystems: Conservation Practice
‘Song of the Cities’: A marketled
conservation response to the
bird-trade in Indonesia
Drs Paul Jepson and Richard Ladle
(Oxford University Centre for the
Environment, ECI/Geography)
Bird-keeping is hugely popular in
the cities of Java and Bali and vast
numbers of birds are taken from the
wild each year. This project, funded
by the Darwin Initiative, is assessing
the efficacy of switching the supply
chain from wild-caught to captivebred
birds. A particular innovation
is to extend the consumer-choice
‘pull’ approach of market-based
mechanisms to include broader
collective action whereby hobbyists
mobilise for change.
The research has involved
qualitative and quantitative
research on key aspects of the birdkeeping
pastime. At the centre
of this research has been a major
household survey in six cities on
Java and Bali. The market-research
company ACNielsen shared with us
their sampling frame and protocol
and as a result we have a robust
data set that enables statistical
projections to the population.
Headline results are that 1 in 3
households in the six cities keep
a bird and nearly 1 in 7 have kept
a bird at sometime in the last ten
years. Over 1.4 million of the birds
kept are wild-caught but similar
numbers are captive-bred. Four of
the most popular wild-caught birds
are favourites at bird song-contests.
The 450 song contests organised in
Java and Bali bring together people
from all ethnicities and backgrounds
in a common interest.
Songbird keepers in the six cities
spend approximately £43 million
a year on their hobby. Of this £14
million is spent on birds, nearly
£9 million on live-food and £4.5
million on cages. The hobby
makes substantial economic and
livelihood contributions. Birdbreeding
business models underline
these insights. Many are social
enterprises, in that they deliver
Environmental Science and Policy Journal
For five years ECI has been hosting
the Editorial Office of the journal
Environmental Science and Policy,
published by Elsevier, the world’s
largest academic publisher. During
these five years the peer-reviewed
journal has doubled in size and
submissions have more than quadrupled.
With a rejection rate of
70% now and the achievement of a
Citation Index rating, ‘ESP’ has an
increasing reputation.
Distinctively the journal focuses on
links between environmental science
and policy, and is concerned
with reaching beyond the academic
community, involving experts and
practitioners in government, business
and industry, and non-governmental
organisations who are
instrumental in the solution of environmental
problems.
ESP seeks to advance interdisciplinary
research of international policy
relevance on a range of environmental
issues such as climate change,
biodiversity, environmental pollution
and waste, renewable and nonrenewable
natural resources, and the
interactions between these issues. It
emphasises the links between these
environmental issues and social and
economic issues such as production,
transport, consumption, growth, demographic
changes, well-being, and
health. However, subject coverage
is not restricted to these issues and
the introduction of new dimensions
is encouraged. The journal also
publishes a number of Special Issues
each year. Recent and forthcoming
Special Issues include:
• Assessing climate change effects
on land use and ecosystems in
Europe.
• Options for including land-use
activities in a post-2012 inter-
social benefits as well as profits.
Bird breeding is labour intensive
and generates employment in the
community for the old, young,
disabled and uneducated.
A key insight emerging from this
research is that catching birds
from the wild, whilst contributing
a livelihood supplement to some
people, undermines the potential to
create a bird-breeding industry that
would provide large numbers of jobs
for urban and rural Indonesians.
The second phase of the project will
involve a social marketing campaign:
developing a system to certify
captive-bred birds and activities to
expand bird-breeding. Our research
has shown that the key conditions
necessary to ‘switch’ a supply chain
from wild-caught to commercial
breeding are present in Java. With
the right investments and tenacity
we can imagine a time 10-15 years
hence where an appreciation of
birds remains central to the Javan
and Balinese cultural identities but
where catching wild birds
is unthought-of.
•
•
national climate
agreement.
Biodiversity
and land use
in
Europe.
Reconciling the supply of,
and demand for, science with a
focus on carbon cycle research.
ECI research leaders have been
Guest Editors for some of these Special
issues. Notably Dr Pam Berry
co-edited Assessing Climate Change
Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems
in Europe (vol 9 issue 2, 2006) based
on the ACCELERATES research
programme in which ECI had been
prominent. Three papers from that
issue are among ESP’s top five in
terms of online readership.
The Editor-in Chief is Professor Jim
Briden, former ECI Director. He can
be contacted at esp@eci.ox.ac.uk and
further details of the journal are at
www.ees.elsevier.com/envsci.

6
LAnd Degradation
The year 2007 saw the long-awaited publication of Soil Erosion in Europe (eds
Boardman and Poesen). This is the first state-of-the-art review of erosion in
34 European countries plus consideration of many practical and policy related
issues. The 58 chapter book resulted from a four year EU funded COST Action
involving 21 countries chaired by John Boardman.
John’s own work on erosion in Britain continues, especially in wet autumns
such as 2006. The focus recently has been on serious erosion in the Midhurst
area of West Sussex, where soil from eroding potato and maize fields reaches
the River Rother. This is a valuable trout stream and sediment impacts on
the gravel bed to inhibit breeding. Such ‘off-farm’ effects of erosion are now
accepted in Europe as of major societal concern. Complex relationships
between land owner, tenant farmer, highway authorities, fisheries interests,
local conservation schemes and the regulatory authority for rivers (the
Environment Agency) are being explored.
The idea of ‘desertification’ has been
widely applied to recent landscape
change in South Africa. Alarmist
fears of creeping desertification have
been expressed. Most researchers
have concentrated on vegetation,
identifying a change from mixed grass
and shrub to predominantly shrub
in the semi-arid Karoo. For farmers,
the implication is a loss of palatable
grazing.
The ECI is gaining new insights into
land degradation by studying changes
in specific landscape signatures -
badlands and deep gully systems. We
are collaborating with the University
of Cape Town and Rhodes University
in South Africa and the Universities of
Coventry and Leicester in the UK.
The Karoo
Erosion in the Karoo is typified by
heavily eroded ‘badland’ areas and
deep gully systems. For the past 10
years we have concentrated on an
area of the Klein Seekoei valley in
the Sneeuberg uplands about 70 km
north of the town of Graff Reinet. The
valley is wetter than the lowland Karoo
because of its altitude (ca. 1600 m)
and is an area of sheep farming. In
the past, the valley bottoms (‘lands’)
were used to grow wheat.
There is some evidence in the
Karoo as a whole, and in the Klein
Seekoei valley, that very high stock
numbers (sheep largely) are the
cause of vegetation change and soil
erosion leading to the formation of
badlands and gully systems. We are
investigating:
• the initiation of badlands and
gullies;
• the physical processes associated
with formation and development of
badlands and gullies;
• changes in the degraded areas
through time;
• the knowledge and attitudes of the
farming community;
• the possibilities for rehabilitation
of degraded areas;
• the impact of erosion on
hydrology, particularly dams and
water quality;
• rainfall patterns and climate
change;
• dam sedimentation and changing
patterns of pollen, Cs-137 and
Pb-210 ;
• the fire history of the area.
Methods
The topic requires an interdisciplinary
approach using methodologies from
natural and social science, including:
• monitoring of selected sites for
change;
• mapping of degraded areas using
air photographs from 1945, 1980
and 2000;
• simulated rainfall experiments;
•
•
•
•
Leader:
Dr John Boardman
Land Degradation in the Karoo, South Africa
assembly of database on small
dams;
dating of sediment infill in small
dams (NERC funded project);
interviewing of farmers;
coring of willows.
Findings
The interaction of management,
especially severe overgrazing in
the past, and wet/dry periods (with
limited evidence of climate change)
seems to explain present degraded
landscapes.
Key Publications
Boardman, J., 2006. Soil erosion
science: reflections on the
limitations of current approaches.
Catena 68: 78-86.
Boardman, J. and Poesen,
J., 2006. Soil erosion across
Europe: major processes
causes and consequences. In:
J. Boardman and J. Poesen.
(Editors), Soil Erosion in Europe.
Wiley, Chichester. 479-487 pp.
Keay-Bright, J. and Boardman,
J., 2006. Changes in the distribution
of degraded land over
time in central Karoo, South
Africa. Catena, 67: 1-14.

Soil Erosion in Europe provides a unique
and comprehensive assessment of soil
erosion throughout Europe, which is an
important aspect to control and manage
if landscapes are to be sustained for the
future. Written in two parts, this book
primarily focuses on current issues, areaspecific
soil erosion rates, on and off-site
impacts, government responses, soil
conservation measures, and soil erosion
risk maps. The first section overviews
the erosion processes and the problems
encountered within each European
country, whilst the second section takes
a cross-cutting theme approach. Soil
Erosion in Europe is based on a COSTfunded
project that has been running for
five years with 145 erosion scientists
from 1 countries.
Key elements of the book include:
•
•
•
•
Past soil erosion in Europe;
Soil Erosion Processes (major
processes and controlling factors and
research needs; soil surface crusting
and structure slumping; sheet and rill
erosion; gully erosion; piping hazard
on collapsible and dispersive soils;
wind erosion; shallow landsliding;
tillage erosion; soil erosion processes
in non-cultivated land; soil erosion
by land leveling);
Risk Assessment and Prediction
(erosion risk assessment and erosion
maps; rain erosivity; soil erodibility;
erosion modelling; soil erosion
datasets; impacts of environmental
changes);
Off-site impacts and responses
(muddy floods; reservoir
sedimentation; off-site impacts
of erosion: eutrophication as an
example; economic impacts;
government and agency response to
the erosion risk; agri-environmental
measures and soil conservation).
Soil Erosion in Europe is the first overall
assessment of the erosion problem in
Europe.

Doctoral Students
ECI are hosting more DPhils than ever before, with 12 students starting research projects
with us in 2006 bringing the total number to 35.
Increasing numbers of these students are undertaking international fieldwork, both utilizing
existing partnerships and forming new ones with research institutions around the world.
We have students examining the impacts of climate change first hand in Amazonia, as well
as studies which take place closer to home, in the University’s Wytham Woods.
New students are also coming to ECI from successful business careers, to gain the depth
of knowledge and understanding needed to underpin their experience in the work place
and tackle some of the issues facing the environment in the 21st Century. Allen Shaw
returned to ECI to begin his Dphil in 2006 after 15 years working in investment banking,
and a year out to do the ECI’s MSc Environmental Change and Management in 2002. His
research examines energy investment in the developing world and its impact on climate
change, energy security and poverty alleviation.
Liana Anderson
Carbon dynamics and land cover
change over the Amazon forest.
Adam Bumpus
Carbon Development: a political
ecology analysis of carbon offset
projects for local development and
global climate benefits.
Adam’s research looks at the
functioning of carbon markets in relation
to carbon offsets and the development
potential they may hold. The work
is internationally focused and has a
specific interest in the multi-scalar
linkages between networks of actors
involved in carbon offsets.
Using a political ecology approach
- incorporating analyses of human
agency, material effects, discourse and
political economy - this work analyses
the implementation and functioning of
carbon offsets projects in Honduras.
Particularly, it is comparing a project
from the compliance (clean development
mechanism) and voluntary (retail carbon
offsets) sectors to understand how
local actors in developing countries are
differentially linked through space and
time to carbon consumers in the north
through these mechanisms.
Nathalie Butt
Investigation of the climate drivers/
constraints of plant distributions
across the Amazon basin.
Ben Champion
Alternative Agro-Food Networks in
Eastern Kansas.
Mintae Choi
Rainfall intensity and soil erosion by
water: implications of future climate
change.
Katie Fenn
Quantifying the seasonal variation
in carbon and nutrient dynamics in
an ancient broadleaved woodland at
Wytham Woods near Oxford.
John Gates
Groundwater recharge and
paleohydrology of the Badain Jaran,
NW China.
Cecile Girardin
How do ecosystem processes vary
with elevation along a transect in the
Peruvian Andes?
Janice Golding
Evaluating the extent to which species
are best adapted to withstand threat,
using species ecological principles
(PP).
Gavin Killip
Low-carbon refurbishment of UK
housing and small-business premises:
a study of delivery options
Lucy King
The interaction between the African
elephant (Loxodonta africana
africana) and the African honeybee
(Apis melifera scutella) and its
potential application as an elephant
deterrent.
Natasha Kuruppu
Climate change and variability in the
Pacific region: piloting adaptation
strategies to facilitate sustainable
development in the water sector of
Kiribati.
Katja Lehman
Seasonal and diurnal variations in the
hydrological processes of a montane
cloud forest in the eastern Andes.
Ana Malhado
The functional biogeography of the
Amazon forest canopy.
Danae Maniatis
Deforestation of the Congo Basin:
patterns, drivers and conservation.
Philip Mann
Energy planning in the developing
world - synergies and trade-offs
between increasing energy access for
poverty reduction, energy security and
climate goals.
Arnoldo Matus Kramer
Adaptation to climate change in the
Mexican Caribbean region.
Mary Menton
The effects of logging on non-timber
forest products in the Brazilian
Amazon: ecological and socioeconomic
perspectives.

Alexandra Morel
To what extent is palm oil the main
driver of deforestation in Malaysia
and Indonesia and what are the
sustainability implications of its
expansion?
Alexandra’s DPhil focuses on the
expansion of oil palm plantations over
time in both Malaysia and Indonesia
through a combination of large-scale
remote sensing at the national scale and
extensive field-based “ground-truthing.”
This will provide some comparison
between rates of expansion in Malaysia
and Indonesia as well as information
on what percentage of deforestation
is due to oil palm cultivation. Current
estimates attribute 40 percent of
deforested areas in Indonesia being
converted to oil palm. It is not
straightforward to assess drivers of
deforestation, however, as there are
several factors to be considered. These
may include but are not limited to: land
tenure rights, national and/or local
forest governance, markets for illegal
logging, climatic and environmental
variables causing extensive forest fires.
Alex Noriega Guerra
Towards more tragic encounters?
Weather-related disaster risk in
Guatemalan highlands.
Yuko Ogawa
Assessing sensitivity of Japanese
forests in response to climate change.
James Paterson
The effects of climate change on
structure and function of calcareous
ash woodlands in the UK.
Bernardo Peredo
Biodiversity, local development and
poverty alleviation in Bolivia in a
market economy: irreconcilable
differences or windows of
opportunity?
Mike Riddell
Participating in a sustainable future?
Community conservation and social
marginalisation in northern Republic
of Congo.
Norma Salinas
Impacts of climate change on tropical
cloud mountain forests.
Sharad Saxena
Carbon commodification and
development: analysing the sectoral
approach to CDM governance as a
route to sustainable development and
global climate mitigation.
Allen Shaw
Policy interaction analysis between
economic development and climate
change with respect to large
industrialising economies.
Tom Simchak (MLitt Student)
Changing cultures and identities in
Shetland’s oil era.
Graham Sinden
Impact of renewable energy sources
on future UK electricity supply.
Erika Trigoso
Vulnerability to drought and
community adaptation in the Andean
high-plateau.
Mandar Trivedi
Conservation in a changing climate:
the potential to exploit microclimate
heterogeneity and management.
Royd Vinya
Dynamics of the Miombo woodlands
along a climatic gradient.
Cindy Warwick
Integrating water and development
under the water framework directive:
a political ecology approach.
Rebecca White
Carbon governance in a consumer
age: an investigation of the UK’s food
system.
The production and consumption of food
is highly carbon intensive. To achieve
the UK’s target of a 60% reduction in
carbon emissions by 2050, the food
system (from ‘plough to plate’) will have
to contribute accordingly. Rebecca’s
DPhil research hopes to contribute a
deeper understanding of how this might
be achieved, using particular food
goods as case studies.
As well as determining carbon reduction
options, the project will critically
analyse current approaches to carbon
governance. In particular it will examine
how factors such as power and the
networked nature of food production
and consumption affect the ability of
players in the food system to reduce
their carbon impact.
Przemyslaw Zelazowski
Remote sensing of spatial and
temporal patterns in primeval forest
areas – from tropical Andes to
Europe.
Przemyslaw explores a range of
techniques which allow for the
application of satellite imagery in
environmental assessment. The main
questions asked are: which forest
properties can be analysed through
the imagery and how close are they
to reality? Comparisons between
datasets allow for conclusions about
environmental change within forested
areas which can be used for predicting
future landscapes.

environmental law
water issues
0
modelling
economics
GIS
desertification
risk management
climate change
remote sensing
audits
energy
soil erosion
corporate environmental liability
geomorphologic consequences
population ecology
deforestation
MSc Environmental change
The course aims to produce
students with a broad
appreciation of all aspects of
the management of people
and institutions in relation to
environmental change; who are
analytical in their approach; and
who are competent and aware
decision makers. Successful
applicants develop an in-depth
understanding of not only the causes
and consequences of environmental
change, but also an awareness of
the legal, economic and ethical
underpinnings of remedial action
or management. The central theme
of this course is the development
of a truly inter-disciplinary
approach to the management of the
environment.
The course is a 1-year MSc by
coursework and consists of full
time study, with assessment by
course assignments and written
examinations.
The course includes: 3 compulsory
courses, 2 chosen options, a
dissertation, attending ‘Friday
workshops’ and fieldtrips.
Course 1:
Issues and Driving Forces
Growth and nature of
environmental awareness; critical
issues in current and future
environmental change in terrestrial,
atmospheric, aquatic and marine
systems; the forces driving change
including population growth and
affluence, resource scarcity, climate,
and patterns of energy use; and
concepts of equilibrium, thresholds,
and sustainability.
Course 2:
Managing the Environment
The nature of environmental
management at various levels,
(the household and consumer
behaviour, the business perspective,
special interest groups, national
and international action and
co-operation); the formal legal
framework; and how the above
are mediated by cross-cutting
dimensions of a legal, economic,
ethical, cultural and ecological
nature.
Course 3:
Methods and Techniques for
Environmental Management
Basic computing and modelling;
sociological and ecological
experimental design; data
acquisition and handling; risk
assessment; and GIS and remote
sensing, surveys and monitoring.
Subject
First degree subjects of alumni
Political Science
Natural Science
Biological Science
Engineering
Business
Miscellaneous
Geography
Arts
Environmental Science
0% 10%
% Alumni
20%
Option Courses
Students have to complete 2 options
courses. These consist of tutorials
in small groups, and are assessed
through an extended essay. Current
available options are:
• Business and sustainable
development
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate change economics
Conservation and biodiversity
Energy and the environment
Environmental modelling
Forests and forestry in a
changing world
International environmental law
Land degradation
Latin American environmental
policy
Participation and
environmental governance
Transport and the environment
Vulnerability, resilience and
adaptation to natural hazards
and climate change
Weather, society and finance.
Friday Workshops
These are all-day events and include
lectures, discussions, and report-
back. Current choices include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Environmental education
International environmental law
Multi-lateral financial
institutions
Participation and
environmental governance
Raising awareness of
environmental issues: the role
of the media
Stakeholders and research
Environmental consultancy
Sustainable business
Understanding of science and
the media
Water management and
pollution in the UK.
Field Trips
There are a number of residential
field trips each year, which are
designed to illustrate specific

Over 350 students have successfully graduated from Oxford’s most competitive
and popular graduate science course since its creation in 1994.
The course consistently attracts nearly 200 applicants per year, from over
40 countries, to fill its 32 places. ECI particularly welcomes applicants with
career experience.
and management
aspects of the course and to
introduce students to management
issues and the professionals who
deal with them.
• Slapton Field Centre, south
Devon: management issues in
a National Nature Reserve and
along a changing coastline;
• South Downs, East Sussex:
management issues in an
Environmentally Sensitive Area
(ESA) and the future South
Downs National Park; flooding
and erosion; chalk grassland,
Local Nature Reserve and
environmental education;
• Centre for Alternative
Technology, Wales: evaluating
alternative energy sources and
their impacts;
• Brussels, Belgium: European
environment policy;
• Blencathra Field Centre,
Cumbria: management issues in
a National Park.
Dissertation
A dissertation forms a major part
of the course, and provides an
opportunity for individual, original
and specialised in-depth work on
some aspects of environmental
change and management.
Students
The mixture of nationalities, age
and backgrounds of the students
on the MSc is undoubtedly what
makes it so successful, and reflects
the interdisciplinary nature of
the course. To date we have seen
students from 56 countries enrolled.
Student backgrounds are equally
diverse. While environmental
ECI Alumni increasingly command influential positions
science and geography are popular
first degree-subjects, there have
been students on the course from a
range of specialisms: from history to
philosophy, natural sciences and law.
Scholarships
Students have received over 240
scholarships since the course began
in 1994. Over 70% of students
receive full or partial support to help
fund their studies. A limited number
of scholarships are available through
the ECI, details of which are given
below. Many other scholarships are
sought independently by students,
often from their own countries.
Scholarships administered
by the ECI
• Applied Materials Scholarship
at Linacre College
• The Andrew Goudie Bursary
• Birkett Scholarship at Trinity
College
• Coca-Cola Water Sustainability
Scholarships at Linacre College
• Climate Care Scholarship
• EcoSecurities Scholarship
• Hitachi Chemical Europe
Environmental Control
Management Scholarship at
Linacre College
PricewaterhouseCoopers
McKinsey and Company
Japanese Government
World Bank
US Senate
•
•
•
•
Joan Doll Scholarship at Green
College
Lloyd African/DfID Shared
Scholarship at Linacre College
Norman and Ivy Lloyd/DfID
Shared Scholarship at Linacre
College
Sir Walter Raleigh post-graduate
Scholarship at Oriel College
Alumni
At the 2006 UN Climate Change
Summit there were 13 ECI alumni
in professional capacities. This
demonstrates that the MSc really
makes a difference to both the
people who take the course and to
managing environmental change.
The variety and relevance of the
career destinations of the students
reflects the real-world measure of
the MSc’s quality. Many alumni
are increasingly commanding
influential positions in multinational
corporations; in national, state and
international government; in nongovernmental
organisations; and by
continuing with further study.
DEFRA
Rio Tinto plc
EcoSecurities
The Carbon Trust
Reuters Ltd
KPMG
European Commission
Lloyds of London
UN World Food Programme
1
UN Development Programme China HSBC
Thames Water
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
World Resources Institute

2005
Angela Brungs, Australian
BSc Business Information Technology
Sir Walter Raleigh Scholarship
Examination of Governance Structure and Issues
in Environmental NGO’s
Thomas Carbonell, American
BS/BS/BA Chemical Engineering, Economics,
Political Economics and the Environment
Marshall Scholar
Banking on sustainability? The origins, implementation,
and future of the Equator Principles
Alexandra Conliffe, Canadian
Bachelor in Mechanical Engineering
Rhodes Scholarship
Watershed management and rural livelihoods in
Iran: an investigation using the sustainable livelihoods
framework
Karen Cousins, South African
BSc Biochemistry and Chemistry
An analysis of the UK energy markets in an age
of climate change: will adherence to the national
emission reduction targets force an increasing
reliance on nuclear power?
Bethany Ehlmann, American
BA Earth & Planetary Science
Rhodes Scholar
Enhanced stage and stage variability in the
Lower Missouri River system: tracking change
from the 1804-5 Lewis and Clark expedition to
2005
Angela Falconer, British
MA Geography
RPS Scholarship and Pirie-Reid Scholarship
Evaluating the potential of community-led
sustainable energy in Scotland
Natalia Gorina, Russian
Management and Economics of public administrations
and international institutions
Birkett Scholarship
Bridging Kyoto with the European Emissions
Trading Scheme: Analysis of the ‘Linking Directive’
and its Implications.
Svetlana Ignatieva, Russian
Bachelor of Business Administration
Shell Scholarship
Carbon management in the Oil and Gas sector
– are strategies converging?
Res Isler, Swiss
International Refugee Law/Ethics and health
Policy and International Politics
Herbivory in the Arctic: How do goose grazing
and elevated temperatures impact above and
below ground biomass production of the graminoid
Alopecuruc borealis?
Masters classes
Edward Mishambi, Ugandan
BSc Hons Quantiative Economics
Rhodes Scholar
Linking socio-economics to community sustainable
use and management of wetland resources
in Uganda.
Andrew Jakubowski, Canadian
BSc Physics and Visual Arts
Multilateral Development Banks and the Environment:
International Solutions to Non-
Compliance.
Lydia Jones, British
BSc Maths
Joan Doll Scholarship
Global Warming: Read All About It! An analysis
of the development of the climate change issue
in the British Press
Shashi Kad, Indian
BSc Hons Geology
Energy use in Lahaul and Spiti, H.P. India: Assessing
sustainability, barriers and solar potential
for sustainable development
Takeharu Kikuchi, Japanese
Bachelor of International Relations
Development Bank of Japan Scholarship
Does green management pay? An empirical
examination of the relationship between the environmental
and financial performance of listed
Japanese companies.
Anthony Knox, South African
BSc Civil Engineering
Rhodes Scholar
An economic valuation of the Loreto Bay National
Park.
Alexandra Kornilova, Russian
State Diploma in Management
Applied Materials Scholarship
Russian opportunities under the Kyoto protocol:
The Sakhalin power plants - a case study on the
use of Kyoto joint implementation in the Russian
power sector.
Eleanor La Trobe-Bateman, British
BA Biological Sciences
RPS Scholarship
Conflict at Sea: Marine Spatial Planning as a
Mediator?
Janice Lao, Filipino
BSc Environmental Science and Economics
Shell Scholarship
The CDM in the Philippines: How can we overcome
these barriers and what are its effects on
the Renewable Energy Framework?
Katrina Marsden, British
MA Earth Sciences
A study of Perceptions towards CAP Reform in
Scotland: An early assessment of Farmer opinions
and possible environmental outcomes.
Katherine Meehan, American
BA Political Science and Environmental Studies
ECI Director’s Fellowship
Streamlining the state? Power, decentralisation,
and water at work in Guatemala.
Colleen Murphy, Canadian
B Comm Entrepreneurial Management
Rotary Scholarship
A financial and sustainability assessment of
bundling small scale CDM projects: A case study
in Bhutan.
Hiromi Nagai, Japanese
Bachelor of Law
IDEAS Scholarship
How cost-effective are carbon emission reductions
under the Prototype carbon fund?
Anjali Nayar, Canadian
BSc Hons Biology, Geology
Commonwealth Scholarship
Urbanization studies for malaria research in
Africa: can the GLCF Landsat database tell us
something new?
Brianna Peterson, Canadian
BScE Chemical Engineering
Birkett Scholarship
Driving change? A critical analysis of the
voluntary agreement between the Canadian
government and the Canadian automobile
manufacturers to reduce emissions from the
light-duty vehicle fleet.
Stephanie Pfeifer, German
BA Hons Philosophy, Politics and Economics
The transfer of basic genetic resources and
additional biotechnologies in the context of
international environmental law.
Alexander Pollen, American
BA Neurobiology
Rhodes Scholar
Institutional Investors and Climate Change: An
analysis of the integration of climate change
risks and opportunities into investment decision-making.
Josselin Rouillard, British/French
BSc Environmental Science
Rooftop wind turbines: Potentials and barriers.
Fatima Shah, Japanese
BA Biology, Economics & Environment
Analysis of Tourism Impacts at Fairy Meadows,
Pakistan and Assessment of Tourism’s Sustainability.
Marina Shilo, Belarusian
Bachelors Degree in Law
British Chevening Scholarship
Could international mandatory regulation
deliver transformation of ship recycling into a
sustainable industry?
Matthew Somerville, American
BA Biology
An analysis of deforestation trends across Madagascar’s
protected area system (1980-2000) and
implications for future management.
Nick Stantzos, Greek
BSc Environmental Sciences
Bodossaki Foundation Scholarship
Financing climate change entrepreneurship: Assessing
the potential of solar energy start-ups to
attract investments in the UK.

of 2005 & 2006
Sarah Stephen, Indian
BSc Zoology
Environmental Treaties relating to fresh water
pollution and Endocrine-disrupting chemicals-
Where is the loophole?
Veliko Vorkapic, Croatian
BSc Biology
OSI/FCO Scholarship
Gravel extraction and the regulation of the Drava
river, Croatia
Wei Wu, Chinese
BSc Built Equipment and Engineering
Hitachi Chemical Europe Scholarship
Green Olympics of Beijing 2008: Can ASGBBO
ensure realization of Green Olympics and how
can it influence the green building industry in
China?
Siddharth Yadav, Indian
Role of CDM in the emergence of methane
utilisation and destruction projects in Indian
coal mines
Avse Yesilay, Indian
MSc Mineral Processing
British Chevening Scholarship
Groundwater depletion in Tuz Lake Basin:
Stakeholders and Sustainable Solutions
2006
Safja Agius, Canadian/Maltese
BDes Industrial Design
Is green marketing an effective way to close the
‘4/40 gap’?
Marianne Bach, Canadian/UK
BSc Biology
Strategies for reducing the environmental impact
of aviation through hydrogen fuel
Nana Bonsu-Amoako, Ghanaian
BSc Natural Resources Management
Solar water heating in Ghana: barriers and
potential - a case study of the hotel industry
Alex Boston, Canadian
BA International Development
British Chevening Scholarship
Best Process Before Best Practice: Lessons from
Canadian Cities Leading Change on Climate
Protection
Maria-Christina Brosch, German
BA Business Management
Can the Human Rights Framework Contribute
to Environmental Protection?
Yara Chakhtoura, French
Engineering
Business & adaptation to climate change
Delavane Diaz, American
BS Astronautical Engineering
Rhodes Scholar
Catch-and-release Awareness Among Recreational
Sea Anglers in Britain: Does the State
of Common Understanding Reflect Scientific
Knowledge of the Practice?
Mairi Dorward, British
BSc Environmental Science
RPS Scholarship
Evaluating the impacts of an improved cookstove
project in Tanzania
Johannes Ebeling, German
MA Political Science, Biology & Geography
Applied Materials Scholarship
Tropical deforestation and climate change: Ways
towards an international mitigation strategy
Praveen Gopalan, Malaysian
BSc Environmental Science
A Helping Hand?: People with Learning Disabilities
as Volunteers in Environmental Conservation
Activities
Christina Loizidou, Cypriot
BA Physics and Economics
Utilizing the Renewable Energy Potential of
Cyprus
Danae Maniatis, Belgian/Greek
MSc Environmental Sciences and technology
ECI Fellowship
Developing Principles, Criteria and Indicators to
Define and Verify the Legality of Wood Products
in Cameroon
Alex McNamara, South African
BA Political Studies
Wits University, Skye Foundation &
Oppenheimer Fund bursaries
Developing sustainable energy futures: the City
of Cape Town
Alexandra Morel, American
BA Environmental Studies
Can biofuels be certified as sustainable and is
India ready to implement a certification scheme?
Fidelia Ngwodo, Nigerian
BSc Botany
Felix Scholarship
Consumers’ responses to car energy labels.
Rassul Rakhimov, Kazakhstan
MSc Environment & Resource Management
Analysis of existing policy frameworks on wind
energy generation with regards to their implementation
in Kazakhstan
Arryati Ramadhani, Indonesian
BEng Environmental Engineering
British Chevening Scolarship
Climate change and electricity security supply:
the role of renewable energy and energy efficiency
- a case of Indonesia
Blanca Raymundo Garcia, Mexican
BS Chemical Environmental Engineering
Brookman Foundation Scholarship
The potential for Clean Development Mechanism
projects in the Mexican industrial sector: a
case study of the cement industry
Beatrice Riche, Canadian
BSc Agronomy
Linking climate change, soil carbon sequestration,
and food security in the Southern highlands
of Tanzania
Andrew Robinson, Canadian
BA Mass Media Communications
Birkett Scholarship
Preparing for take-off: Assessing the potential
for waste hydrogen in launching a clean transportation
economy in Western Canada
Hannah Rowlands, British
MA Physics
Birkett Scholarship
How Might Computer Games be Used to Communicate
the Issues of Climate Change?
Giulia Sartori, Italian
BSc Development Economics
Waste management in Italy: a case study of the
Legoli disposal centre
Sharad Saxena, Indian
BEng Mechanical Engineering
Coca Cola Scholarship
Delivering Low or Zero Carbon New Homes:
The Role of Energy Services Companies
Asli Sezer Ozcelik, Turkish
BSc Geological Engineering
Jean Monnet Scholarship
An Overview of Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptation for the Turkish Electricity Production
Sector
Safia Shafiq, Pakistani
BE Structural Engineering
Joint Japan/World Bank Scholarship
The Institutional and Legislative Framework for
Vehicular Air Pollution Management in Karachi
Matias Steinacker Velez, Chilean
BEng Engineering
Hitachi Chemical Europe Scholarship
Is it possible to meet the Chilean target for
renewable energy under the current market and
policy framework?
Sasha Sud, Indian
BSc Environment & Economics
Joan Doll Scholarship
Barriers and Solutions: Applying the Small-Scale
Clean Development Mechanism to Decentralized
Renewable Electricity projects for Remote
Rural Electrification in India
Anita Takura, Ghanaian
BSc Zoology
Norman and Ivy Lloyd/DFID Scholarship
Are Voluntary Initiatives an Appropriate Way to
Reduce the Environmental Impacts of Mining
Activities on Local Communities in Ghana?
Sapna Thottathil, American
BA Environmental Studies
Fairtrade’s Carbon Emissions: What’s its Share,
and do People Care?
Lei Wang, Chinese
BA English
British Chevening Scholarship
The Sun Shines on Beijing – Can grid-connected
solar photovoltaic (PV) systems effectively offset
electricity peak demand in Urban China and if
required, is it viable in both economic and political
terms in China today?
Przemyslaw Zelazowski, Polish
MSc Environmental Protection
Sir Walter Raleigh Scholarship
Looking for footprints in Paradise: the challenges
of land cover change assessment using remote
sensing in the region of the Manu Biosphere
Reserve (Peru).
Su Zhang, Chinese
MA English Language
Tourism impacts on conservation of Laojun
Mountain, China.
Kornelia Zukowska, American/Polish
BA German and Marketing
Clarendon Scholarship
Investigating the use of Science in drafting the
European Commission’s Biomass Action Plan.
Nationality ~ First Degree Subject ~ Schoarship ~ Dissertation TitlE

2006 Publications
Allen, M., Andronova, N., Booth, B., Dessai, D.,
Frame, D. J., Forest, C., Gregory, J., Hegerl, G., Knutti,
R., Piani, C., Sexton, D. & Stainforth, D. A., 2006.
Observational Constraints on Climate Sensitivity,
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press.
Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A. and
Stainforth, D.A., 2006. Model error in weather and
climate forecasting. In: T.P.R. Hagedorn (Editor),
Predictability in Weather and Climate. Cambridge
University Press.
Anderson, L.O. Shimabukuro, Y.E. Spectral-temporal
classification of land cover formations. Book Chapter.
In: B. Rudorff , Y.E. Shimabukuro and J. Ceballos (Editors),
Applications of the MODIS/TERRA sensor in
Brazil. Book image, São José dos Campos, pp. 448.
Anderson, L.O. Shimabukuro, Y.E. Monitoring land
cover changes due to natural and anthropics causes.
In: B. Rudorff , Y.E. Shimabukuro and J. Ceballos (Editors),
Applications of the MODIS/TERRA sensor in
Brazil. Book image, São José dos Campos, pp. 448.
Anderson, L.O., Shimabukuro, Y., Aragao, L.E.,
Huete, A. Using fraction images to study natural
land cover changes in the Amazon. International
Geoscience and Remote Sensing Simposium, IGARSS.
Denver, USA, July-August, 2006.
Anderson, L.O., Shimabukuro, Y.E., Defries, R.S.,
Morton, D. Temporal patterns of the deforestation and
implications for the Conservation in the
Brazilian Amazon. Earth System Science Partnership
ESSP Open Science Conference. Beijing, China,
November, 2006.
Aragão, L.E.O.C. and Shimabukuro, Y.E., In Press. Leaf
area index estimations over the amazon: evaluation
of modis mod15a2 product. Book chapter (in portuguese).
Applications of the MODIS/TERRA sensor in
Brazil. In: B.S. Ed. Rudorff, Y.E. & Ceballos, J. Editora:
Bookimage, São José dos Campos (Editor), pp. 448.
Aragão, L.E.O.C., Shimabukuro, Y.E., Santo, F.D.B.E.
and Williams, M., 2006. Meso-scale variability of soils
and forest canopy properties is connected to geomorphologic
features in eastern Amazonia. International
Geoscience and Remote Sensing Simposium, IGRSS.
1-4.
Barbier, N., Couteron, P., Lejoly, J., et al. (2006)
Self-organized vegetation patterning as a fingerprint of
climate and human impact on semi-arid ecosystems
Journal of Ecology 94 (3): 537-547.
Berry, P.M. and Harley, M., 2006. Climate change,
biodiversity and regional policy development.
Berry, P.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Harrison, P.A. and
Audsley, E., 2006. Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural
land use and species to climate change and the
role of policy in facilitating adaptation. Environmental
Science & Policy, 9: 189-204.
Boardman, B., 2006. Cloud Cockoo Britain. Parliamentary
Brief, 10(6): 11-12.
Boardman, B., 2006. Creating a virtuous circle for
climate change with consumers, manufacturers and
sufficiency, EEDAL (International Energy Efficiency in
Domestic Appliances & Lighting Conference). 21-23
June 2006., London.
Boardman, B., 2006. Housing and energy – the possibilities.
. Blueprints for Green Homes: a housing &
energy policy for the 21st century. Labour Housing
Group: 5-7.
Boardman, B., Jardine, C. and Lipp, J., 2006. Green
Electricity Code of Practice: A Scoping Study.
Boardman, B. and Drewe, D., 2006. Bring on the
Bulldozer? Discussion in Exchange of Fire section of
Green Futures, March / April 2006: 30-33.
Boardman, J., 2006. Soil erosion science: reflections
on the limitations of current approaches. Catena 68:
78-86.
Boardman, J., In Press. Soils and sustainability: the
future of the South Downs. In: R. Fish, S. Seymour, M.
Steven and C. Watkins (Editors), Sustainable Farmland
Management: New Transdisciplinary Approaches.
CABI, Wallingford.
Boardman, J. and Evans, R., 2006. Britain. In: J.
Boardman and J. Poesen (Editors), Soil Erosion in
Europe. Wiley, Chichester. 439-453 pp.
Boardman, J. and Poesen, J., 2006. Soil erosion across
Europe: major processes, causes and consequences. In:
J. Boardman and P. J. (Editors), Soil Erosion in Europe.
Wiley, Chichester. 479-487 pp.
Boardman, J., Verstraeten, G. and Bielders, C., In
Press. Muddy floods. In: J. Boardman and J. Poesen
(Editors), Soil Erosion in Europe. Wiley, Chichester.
743-755 pp.
Bottrill, C., 2006. Are we wasting the web? Environmental
Change Institute Report.
Boyd, E., Gutierrez, M. and Chang, M. In Press.
Small-scale forest carbon projects: Adapting CDM
to low-income communities, Global Environmental
Change.
Boyd, E., (2006) Scales of Governance in Carbon
Sinks: Global Priorities and Local Realities. Forthcoming
chapter in Reid, W et al (eds.) Bridging Scales and
Epistemologies: Linking Local Knowledge and Global
Science in Environmental Assessments, Island Press.
Brand, C., Preston and Boardman, B., 2006. Counting
your carbon: the development and deployment of
integrated travel emissions profiles, Transport Studies
Unit.
Buzar, S., 2006. Hidden geographies of energy poverty
in post-socialism: between institutions and households.
Geoforum.
Buzar, S., 2006. When homes become prisons: the
relational spaces of post-socialist energy poverty.
Environment and Planning A.
Buzar, S., Ogden, P. E., Hall, R., Haase, A., Kabisch,
S. & Steinfuehrer, A. 2006. Splintering urban populations:
emergent landscapes of re-urbanisation in four
European cities. Urban Studies.
Cairns, S., Newson, C., Boardman, B. and Anable, J.,
2006. Predict and decide: Aviation, climate change and
UK policy. Environmental Change Institute, University
of Oxford(33): 118.
Clement, C.R. et al., Klüppel, M. P., German, L. A., de
Almeida, S. S., Major, J., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Guix,
J. C., Lleras, E., Winklerprins, A. M. G. A. & Hiecht,
S. B.. Diversidade vegetal em solos antropicos da
amazonia.
Cooney, R. and Jepson, P., 2006. The international
wild bird trade: what’s wrong with blanket bans? Oryx,
40: 18-23.
Darby, S. (2006) The effectiveness of feedback on
energy consumption. A review for DEFRA of the
literature on metering, billing and direct displays.
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford.
Darby, S., 2006. Social learning and public policy:
Lessons from an energy-conscious village. Energy
Policy, 34(17): 2929 - 2940.
Dawson, T.E., Burgess, S. S. O., Tu, K. P., Oliveira, R.
S., Santiago, L. S., Fisher, J. B., Simonin, K. S. & Ambrose,
A. R. 2006. Nighttime transpiration in woody
plants from contrasting ecosystems. Tree Physiology.
del Barrio, G., Harrison, P. A., Berry, P. M., Butt, N.,
Sanjuan, M. E., Pearson, R. G. & Dawson, T., 2006.
Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict
the potential impacts of climate change on species’
distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and
implications for policy. Environmental Science and
Policy(9): 129-147.
Ehlmann, B.L. and Criss, R.E., 2006. Enhanced stage
and stage variability on the lower Missouri River
benchmarked by Lewis and Clark. Geology, 34(11):
977-980.
Few, R., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E.L., In Press.
Climate change and coastal management decisions:
insights from Christchurch Bay, UK. Coastal Management.
Firth, J. and Colley, M., 2006. The Adaptation Tipping
Point: Are UK Businesses Climate-proof? , Acclimatise
and UKCIP, Oxford.
Fisher, J.B., Baldocchi, D.D., Misson, L., Dawson, T.E.
and Goldstein, A.H., In Press. What the towers don’t
see at night: Nocturnal sap flow in trees and shrubs at
two AmeriFlux sites in California. Tree Physiology.
Fisher, J.B., Kelly, N.M. and Romm, J., 2006. Scales of
environmental justice: Combining GIS and spatial data
analysis for air toxics in West Oakland, California. .
Health & Place, 12(4): 701-714.
Fisher, J.B., Trulio, L.A., Biging, G. and Chromczak,
D., In Press. An analysis of spatial clustering and the
implications to wildlife management: A burrowing owl
example. . Environmental Management.
Foster, I.D.L., Boardman, J. and Keay-Bright, J., In
Press. The contribution of sediment tracing to an
investigation of the environmental history of two small
catchments in the uplands of the Karoo, South Africa.
Geomorphology.
Frame, D.J., In Press. Inductive reasoning in climate
science. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society.
Frame, D.J., Stone, D.A., Stott, P.A. and Allen, M.R.,
2006. Alternatives to Climate Sensitivity. Geophysical
Research Letters.
Hamilton, A., Durbeck, K. and Lawrence, A., 2006.
Towards a sustainable harvest: A work in hand. Plant
Talk, 43: 32-35.

Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M., Butt, N. and New, M.,
2006. Modelling climate change impacts on species’
distributions at the European scale: implications
for conservation policy. Environmental Science and
Policy, 9: 116-128.
Hegerl, G.C., Crowley, T.J., Hyde, W.T. and Frame,
D.J., 2006. Estimating climate sensitivity from
paleoclimatic records of the last millennium,. Nature,
440.(p1029-1032).
Helming, K., Rubio, J.L. and Boardman, J., In Press.
Soil erosion across Europe: research approaches and
perspectives. Catena 68: 71-72.
Hepburn, C., 2006. Valuing the far-off future: discounting
and its alternatives’,. In: G. Atkinson, S. Dietz
and E. Neumayer (Editors), Handbook of Sustainable
Development.
Hepburn, C. and Groom, B., 2007. Gamma discounting
and expected net future value. Journal of Environmental
Economics and Management. 53(1): 99-109.
Hepburn, C. and Groom, B., 2006. Regulation by
prices, quantities or both: an update and an overview.
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 22(2): 226-247.
Hepburn, C., Grubb, M., Neuhoff, K., Matthes, F. and
Tse, M., 2006. Auctioning of EU ETS Phase II allowances:
how and why? Climate Policy, 6(1): 137-160.
Hepburn, C. and Koundouri, P., 2006. Recent advances
in discounting: implications for forest economics.
Journal of Forest Economics.
Irons, B. and Hepburn, C., In Press. Regret theory and
the tyranny of choice. Economic Record.
Jepson, P. & Cooney, R., 2006 International conservation
needs flexibility in wildlife trade policy: a reply to
Burton. Oryx 40 (3) 27-271.
Hibbard, K. A., Crutzen, P. J., Lambin, E. F., Liverman,
D. M., Mantua, N. J., McNeill, J. R., Messerli, B. and
Steffen, W., 2006. Decadal-scale Interactions of Humans
and the Environment pp 341-378 in Costanza,
R., L. J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds.) Sustainability
or Collapse: An Integrated History and future Of
People on Earth. Dahlem Workshop 96. MIT Press.
Cambridge, MA.
Keay-Bright, J. and Boardman, J., 2006. Changes in
the distribution of degraded land over time in the
central Karoo, South Africa. Catena, 67: 1-14.
Keay-Bright, J. and Boardman, J., In Press. Evidence
from field based studies of rates of erosion on
degraded land in the central Karoo, South Africa.
Geomorphology.
Keay-Bright, J. and Boardman, J., In Press. The
influence of land management on soil erosion in the
Sneeuberg mountains, central Karoo, South Africa.
Land Degradation and Development.
Keirstead, J., Darby, S. and Boardman, B., 2006.
Response to Ofgem consultation on domestic metering
innovation.
Knutti, R., Meehl, G., Allen, M.R. and Stainforth,
D.A., 2006. Constraining climate sensitivity from
the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. Journal of
Climate 19: 4224-4233.
Lawrence, A., 2006. No Personal Motive?’ Volunteers,
Biodiversity, and the False Dichotomies of Participation.
Ethics, Place and Environment, 9(3): 279-298.
Lawrence, A. and Hawthorne, W., 2006. Plant identification,
conservation and management: methods
for producing user-friendly field guides. London:
Earthscan., 268 pp.
Lawrence, A., Paudel, K., Barnes, R. and Malla, R.,
2006. Adaptive value of participatory biodiversity
monitoring in community forestry, Nepal Environmental
Conservation 33(4):325-334.
Lawrence, A., and K. J. Temphel. in press. Community
forestry and participatory research: three generations
of challenges. Journal of Renewable Natural
Resources Bhutan.
Liverman, D. 2006. People and places at risk. pp148-
149 in Buckland, D., MacGilp, A. and S. Parkinson.
Burning Ice: Art and Climate Change.
London: Cape Farewell.
Liverman, D. M. (2006). Survival into the Future in
the Face of Climate Change. Survival: the 2006 Darwin
Lectures. E. Shuckberg. Cambridge, Cambridge University
Press: 187-285.
Liverman D.M. and Vilas S. 2006. Neoliberalism and
the Environment in Latin America. Annual Review of
Environment and Resources Vol. 31: 327-363.
Lopez, A., Tebaldi, C., New, M., Stainforth, D. A.,
Allen, M. & Kettleborough, J. 2006. Two approaches to
quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes
under different forcing scenarios. Journal of Climate
19(19): 4785-4796.
Malhi, Y., Wood, D., Baker, T. R., Wright, J., Phillips,
O. L., Cochrane, T., Meir, P., Chave, J., Almeida, S., Arroyo,
L., Higuchi, N., Killeen, T.J., Laurance, S.G., Laurance,
W.F., Lewis, S.L., Monteagudo, A., Neill, D.A.,
Vargas, P.N., Pitman, N.C.A., Quesada, C.A., Salomao,
R., Silva, J.N.M., Lezama, A.T., Terborgh, J., Martinez,
R.V., Vinceti, B. (2006) The regional variation of aboveground
live biomass in old-growth Amazonian forests.
Global Change Biology, 12, 1107-1138.
Maslin, M., Malhi, Y., Phillips, O., Cowling, S. (2006).
New views on an old forest: assessing the longevity,
resilience and future of the Amazon rainforest.
Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers,
30, 477-499.
Massey, N., Aina, T., Allen, M., Christensen, C.,
Frame, D. J., Goodman, D., Kettleborough, J., Martin,
A., Pascoe, S. & Stainforth, D. A. 2006. Data access
and analysis with distributed federated data servers
in climateprediction.net. Advances in Geosciences 8:
49-56.
Metcalfe D. B., M. Williams, L. E. O. C. Aragão, A.
C. L. da Costa, A. P. Braga, P. H. L. Gonçalves, J. de
Athaydes Silva Junior, Y. Malhi, P. Meir. In Press.
A method which corrects for underestimates when
removing plant roots from soil.
Morton, D.C., Defries, R. S., Shimabukuro, Y. E., Anderson,
L. O., Arai, E., del Bon Espirito-Santo, F., Freitas,
R. & Morisette, J., On-line published September
14, 2006. Cropland expansion changes deforestation
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of the National Academy of Science of the United
States of America.
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Müller, B. and Hepburn, C., 2006. IATAL — an outline
proposal for an International Air Travel Adaptation
Levy. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Palmer, J., Boardman, B., Bottrill, C., Darby, S.,
Hinnells, M., Killip, G., Layberry, R., Lovell, H.,
2006. Reducing the environmental impact of housing.
Final report to the Royal Commission on Environmental
Pollution.
Parks, B.C. and Roberts, J.T., 2006. Globalization,
Vulnerability to Climate Change, and Perceived
Injustice in the South. Society and Natural Resources.,
19(4): 337-355.
Peregoraro, E. et al., Rey, A., Barron-Gafford, G., Monson,
R., Malhi, Y. & Murthy, R., 2006. The interacting
effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration,
drought and leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit on ecosystem
isoprene fluxes. Oecologia, 146(1): 120-129.
Morecroft, M. and Paterson, J. S. 2006. Effects of
temperature and precipitation changes on plant communities.
In: Plant growth and climate change (J. I. L.
Morrison and M. Morecroft, eds.), Oxford: Blackwells.
Pongratz, J., Bounoua, L., Defries, R. S., Morton, D. C.,
Anderson, L. O., Mauser, W. & Klink, C. 2006. The
impact of land cover change on surface energy and
water balance in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Earth Interactions,
10(19): 1–17.
Roberts, J.T., 2006. Globalizing Environmental Justice:
Trend and Imperative. In: R. Sandler and P.C. Pezzullo
(Editors), Environmental Justice and Environmentalism:
The Social Justice Challenge to the Environmental
Movement. MIT Press.
Roberts, J.T. and Hite, A., 2007. : Perspectives on
Development and Social Change (Second Edition).
Blackwell Publishers.
Roberts, J.T. and Parks, B.C., 2007. A Climate of
Injustice: Global Inequality, North-South Politics, and
Climate Policy. MIT Press.
Román-Cuesta, R.M. and Martínez-Vilalta, J.,
2006. Effectiveness of protected areas in mitigating
fire within their boundaries: case study of Chiapas,
Mexico. Conservation Biology, 20: 1074-108.
Root, T., Liverman, D., and Newman, C., 2006.
Managing Biodiversity in the Light of Climate Change:
Current Biological Effects and Future Impacts. Chapter
6 in D. Macdonald and K. Service (Eds.) Key Topics
in Conservation Biology. Blackwells.
Rounsevell, M.D.A., Berry, P.M. and Harrison, P.A.,
2006. Future environmental change impacts on rural
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9: 93-100.
Silva Júnior, J.A., Costa, A. C. L., Gonçalves, P. H. L.,
Braga, A. P., Malhi, Y., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Meir, P.
& Costa, R. F., In Press. Micrometeorological interactions
at a mangrove ecosystem in the equatorial
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Smale, R., Grubb, M., Hartley, M., Hepburn, C. and
Ward, J., 2006. Emissions, firm profits and market
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Climate Policy, 6(1): 29-46.
Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J. and Piani,
C., 2006. Risks Associated with Stabilisation Scenarios
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Change. Cambridge University Press.
Villela, D.M., Nascimento, M.T., Aragão, L.E.O.C.
and Gama, D.M., 2006. Effect of selective logging on
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Landscape Scenarios around Little Wittenham, South
Oxfordshire. Published by ECI.

6
The Road to San Gimignano
The recent Stern Review on the economics of climate change has made an asteroidal impact on the global
warming debate and keeps sending shockwaves across civil society – in the UK and abroad. Many researchers
from the Tyndall Centre, the ECI and the Potsdam Institute have provided crucial scientific
evidence underpinning that review, which marks – at last – the beginning of a new era: now is the time
for solving – rather than denying, ignoring, ridiculing, or just endlessly discussing - the climate problem.
German Government
seems to have grasped
“The
this challenge and will
make the climate-energy nexus
a top priority of its G8-EU twin
presidency in 2007. This means
that the fragile Gleneagles baton
is properly passed on and that the
haphazard “entente cordiale” on
sustainability between the UK and
Germany is about to grow stronger
- and more systematically.
The German Chancellor Ms Merkel has
asked me to advise her on the pertinent
scientific aspects for the forthcoming
G8-EU agendas and on the mediumterm
Kyoto-plus negotiations. Is there
anything I can recommend to her, apart
from carefully studying the Stern Review
and to watch out for the 4th IPCC Assessment
Report (InterGovernmental
Panel on Climate Change) which is due
in early 2007? Let me touch upon two
issues of overriding importance.
First, the current state-of-the-art estimates
of the multiple potential damages
associated with anthropogenic global
warming (as reflected in the Stern Review)
are highly unsatisfactory. They
may grossly overrate those damages
since the analysis does not genuinely
account for the adaptive elasticity of
societies. Even worse, however, is the
fact that they may fatally underrate the
negative consequences of unbridled
climate change. This has to do with the
still unfalsified hypothesis that human
interference with the atmosphere might
activate a number of switches in the
Earth System (“tipping elements”) that
could interact through teleconnections
and positive feedbacks to bring about a
“domino dynamics” that transforms the
planetary environment in a radical - but
not entirely unprecedented - way. Let us
not forget that our old globe has been
turned into a snowball as well as into a
hothouse in the past, by natural forces
alone.
Finding out whether something
comparable could happen under human
pressure in the future may well be the
“Number 1” scientific challenge of the
decade. My gut feeling is that a thorough
Earth System analysis employing fully
integrated simulation models will safely
rule out the possibility of anthropogenic
“runaway greenhouse” phenomena. Yet
that analysis needs to be done, and fairly
soon, and it will demand commitments
and resources on the Manhattan Project
scale. As the latter term is widely
stigmatized for understandable reasons,
I have suggested a San Gimignano (SG)
Project – bearing in mind that this
beautiful medieval town is often dubbed
“the Manhattan of Tuscany”. After all,
we can do with a bit of humour in our
serious world-saving business.
Second, the recent Conference of Parties
to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (COP 12)
in Nairobi has shed a harsh light on the
intensifying crisis of multilateral climate
diplomacy. Thus, even if an analytic
SG I Project confirms that confining
global warming to 2ºC above the
pre-industrial value ensures planetary
climate stability, there is no guarantee
whatsoever that the world community
is actually able to hold that temperature
line. Progress towards an effective
post-Kyoto regime seems excruciatingly
slow, while the winds of climate change
appear to blow stronger every month.
Here is where a strategic SG II Project,
an Apollo Program-calibre innovation
effort to decarbonize the global energy
systems, needs to kick in.
The economic aspects of such a crash
program are sketched in a special issue
of the Energy Journal (Edenhofer et
al. 2006, see below), which also served
as a crucial source of information for
the Stern Review. But what about the
political implementation? There is no
world government that could stipulate,
top-down, some 50-year plan towards a
zero-emissions civilization.
There is, however, a promising bottom-up
way forward, namely the “Road
Atlas” approach. This approach complements
the conventional demand logic
– set global greenhouse gas emissions
caps, allocate politically correct country
quota, and trade away regional barriers
and inefficiencies – by a supply-side
strategy based on individual commitments
within a “club of the willing”.
The members of this club (nation states,
cities, corporations, etc.) develop and
submit their specific roadmap towards
decarbonisation, indicating criteria,
milestones, and measures in the period
till, say, 2030. In other words, they all
make a public and verifiable statement
about how far they are willing to “leap
for sustainability” in the mid-term
future. Once the figures are on the accounting
table, one can add them up
to see whether the sum of emissions’
reduction pledges is anywhere near a
significant contribution to a climate
solution. This approach could generate
multiple benefits, not least a powerful
realpolitik check inducing interactive
amendment of the individual roadmaps
and the aggressive recruitment of additional
club members.
I can well imagine that Germany suggests
producing a core atlas in 2007 of
pertinent “decarb” strategies for the G8
+ 5 countries, i.e., including the US,
China and India. This would still be a
fairly thin – yet most instructive – compendium
with the potential of rapid
growth through additional contributions
in due course.
The club could hold its annual assembly
(for reviewing, revising and rejoicing) in
San Gimignano. I visited the place just
two months ago and found it as ravishing
as ever!”
Edenhofer, O., Carraro, C., Köhler, J.,
Grubb, M. (Eds.) (2006) Endogenous
Technological Change and the Economics
of Atmospheric Stabilisation. A Special
Issue of the Energy Journal.
Professor John Schellnhuber CBE has recently
been appointed ‘Chief Sustainability Scientist’ for
the German Government. He is Founding Director
of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research and a Distinguished Science Adviser
and former Research Director of the UK’s Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research. He is
also a James Martin 21st Century School Fellow
at the ECI.

Tipping Point 2006: Climate and Art
Over the last year ECI has
contributed to several events that
bring together climate researchers
and the arts community to exchange
ideas about climate change. The first
event was held at Christ Church in
September 2005 when 60 scientists
and artists came together for a
two-day meeting to discuss the
science, art and communication of
climate change. Many of the artists,
including authors Ian McEwan and
Gretel Ehrlich and dancer Siobhan
Davies, were associated with Cape
Farewell, a project created by David
Buckland that has taken groups of
scientists and artists to the Arctic
resulting in some powerful artwork
as well as teaching materials and
new scientific data.
In December 2005 the Bodleian
quadrangle was the location for
Cape Farewell’s Ice Garden, with
more than 14,000 people viewing art
associated with climate change.
In summer 2006 the Natural History
Museum hosted ‘The Ship: The Art
of Climate Change’ accompanied by
a book Burning Ice - Art & Climate
Change including essays by ECI
Professor John Schellnhuber CBE,
James Martin 21st Century School
Fellow and an enthusiastic supporter
of the climate and art initiative.
Director Diana Liverman and senior
fellow John Schellnhuber. John also
participated in a debate at the Royal
Court Theatre.
These successful collaborations
led to a second Oxford encounter,
now called Tipping Point, at Trinity
College and the Sheldonian Theatre
in September 2006. Attended by a
wide range of artists and scientists,
including sculptor Antony Gormley.
this event was focused on finding
solutions to the climate change
problem.
ECI staff Chris West, Diana
Liverman, and Ian Curtis are now
contributing, with Tipping Point
organiser Peter Gingold, to ongoing
discussions with the arts community
including plans for a major event
at London’s South Bank complex, a
Tipping Point meeting in Germany,
and a set of spin off events with
Cape Farewell in North America.

Cover Image: Su Zang was a student on the ECI’s
MSc Environmental Change and Management in
2005/2006. After graduating she returned to
China and now works in Beijing for the Sustainable
Agriculture Development Project, which is sponsored
by the Canadian government to help small farmers and
protect the environment in rural China.
Photo: MSc Environmental Change and Management Alumni 2006, Su Zang
Environmental
Change Institute
Oxford University Centre
for the Environment
South Parks Road
Oxford
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