Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT

of the second year. The same assumptions were used for the preliminaryestimates of wage losses due to the implementation of the draft recovery plan.The assumption that 92 percent of unemployed workers would be reemployedby the end of the first year was derived from general unemployment data (seeMead et al. 1990) and probably overstates the rate or reemployment of timberindustry workers displaced by permanent restrictions in timber harvest imposedto protect owl habitat. The wage losses from implementation of therecovery plan were estimated to be $1.42 billion. Wage losses for the currentregime (planned implementation of the ISC strategy, the effects of listing, andthe critical habitat designation) were estimated to be $1.46 billion.4. Estimating the Economic Effects of SilviculturalPractices.The recovery plan provides for the use of silvicultural techniques in DCAs forthe purpose of promoting more rapid development of forest characteristicsfavorable to the owl in stands that do not currently have the characteristics ofsuitable habitat. In general, younger stands would be thinned in a mannerthat promotes more rapid development of larger trees and other structuralcharacteristics of suitable owl habitat. These techniques are described andevaluated in Appendix G.The implementation of silvicultural practices in DCAs is one of the features ofthe recovery plan with potential to reduce the undesirable economic effects ofprotecting owl habitat, particularly during the first decade. The direct economiceffects of silvicultural practices result from the equipment and laborcosts of silvicultural operations, such as thinning, and the removal of timberfrom younger stands that can be sold commercially.There are also important indirect effects that could be of significant benefit overthe long run. It appears that properly designed silvicultural treatments will beable to significantly shorten the time needed for the development of suitablehabitat in regenerated forests. Such practices would mean that stands wouldprovide suitable habitat for owls for a longer period of time. If widely appliedover many decades, particularly in concert with longer rotations and selectiveharvest techniques, it may be possible to evolve a forest landscape to support aviable owl population with much less reduction in timber harvests than otherwisewould be needed.The variable that most strongly affects the economic benefits of silviculturaltreatments is the percent of timber that is removed and sold commercially.The thinning prescriptions specify the density of the stand in trees per acreafter thinning. The design of the treatment identifies trees to be cut, leavingsufficient trees to meet the density standard. The design also will specify thepercentage of such trees to be removed, left standing, and left on the ground.These design parameters will depend on the characteristics of the stand andthe requirements specified for promoting the development of suitable owlhabitat.If no timber is removed during thinning, then the costs of the treatment willnot be offset by timber revenues and will need to be borne by agency budgets.Employment will result from the thinning itself, but not from hauling or millingof timber. As the amount of timber removed during thinning is increased, therevenues increase and the employment in hauling and milling logs increases.For each stand, there is a breakeven point which depends on costs of operatingon that site, the transportation costs, the diameter of the trees to be removed,and the price of logs. Above the breakeven point, the silvicultural treatment iscommercially viable and could be performed under a contract in which the578