Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT
Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT
V. Preliminary Evaluation of the EconomicEffects of Implementing the Spotted OwlRecovery Plan558A. Economic Effects Covered by Preliminaiy EstimatesThe Recovery Team drew upon the studies summarized in Section IV, particularlythe FWS analysis, to develop preliminary estimates of the economic costsof implementing the recovery plan. Estimates of the following indicators ofeconomic costs were made:* Reduction in federal timber sale volumes and revenues and the resultingeffects on U.S. Treasury and county budgets.* Reduction in employment levels.* Reduction in wage and salary income due to unemployment andreemployment at lower wages.Estimates were not made of other economic effects such as capital asset losses,recreation or the other benefits of forest preservation, and increased profits orharvest by private forestland owners. Quantitative estimates of social costs ofimplementing the recovery plan were not made.These preliminary estimates were not intended to provide a complete basis forfinal decisions on the implementation of the draft recovery plan. During thepublic comment period, the Recovery Team will work with the Forest Serviceand the BLM to refine the estimates of effects of federal timber sales based onmore site-specific data on potential timber yields. In addition, estimates will beprepared of economic effects not covered by the preliminary estimates.B. Analytical ConceptsThis section summarizes the basic analytical concepts needed to estimate andproperly account for the economic effects of reduced federal timber harvests.Next it summarizes the estimation methods and assumptions used for thepreliminary estimates and presents the resulting estimates.This section provides an economic framework within which the various factorsthat affect the costs of achieving recovery can be related. The discussion ispresented in qualitative, non-mathematical terms to facilitate a broader understandingand use of the concepts. The basic concepts are presented in a singleperiod, comparative static analysis for the sake of simplicity. For a comprehensiveanalysis of long-term effects, the concepts would be extended to dealwith many time periods. This would reflect the effects of timber growth and theconcept that resource values realized sooner are worth more than the samevalue if realized later. It also would deal more explicitly with the dynamicprocesses through which local and regional economies adjust to the kind ofstructural economic change caused by policies restricting timber harvest. Thefollowing discussion takes a static approach to provide a more easily understandableanalytical framework.1. The Supply Curve.The supply curve for a commodity is one of the fundamental concepts ofeconomic analysis. It represents the rate of production for a commodity or
good that is achievable at various costs. For timber, the supply curve reflectsthe real costs that would be incurred in all the activities needed to grow trees,harvest timber, and bring logs to the mills to be sawn into lumber. Such costsinclude forest management, road construction, cutting and loading, andtransportation. It also includes the cost of complying with regulations designedto reduce the environmental effects of these activities.As is the general case with supply curves, the timber supply curve slopesupward as shown in Figure H. 1. At any given time, there are numerous sitesthat could be harvested at various costs. When prices are higher, it is worthwhileincurring greater costs to harvest additional timber. The upward slopingsupply curve reflects the economic diversity of the existing forestlands. Itresults from a mixture of stands of timber, some with relatively low costs perboard foot, some with relatively high.The supply curve can be derived from a table listing the annual amount oftimber that could be harvested at each cost from each site in the inventory.The total amount that could be produced at each cost is the sum of the annualharvest at that cost from all the sites. The supply curve shows the annualproduction at each price which is the sum of the potential annual harvest at allcosts less than or equal to the price. Table H.7 provides an example of this wayof deriving a supply curve. Figure H.2 shows the supply curve derived fromTable H.7.A region's timber supply curve reflects the condition of its current inventory ofstanding timber. For example, Figure H.3 shows two supply curves, one thatwould yield very high levels of production over a broad range of timber pricesand a second that yields relatively little production at low prices, moderateproduction at midrange prices and not much increase in production even atfairly high prices. The first would characterize production from the forestlandsin a region that has a substantial inventory of mature standing timber, thesecond from a region with limited forestlands or forestlands where the lowercost timber already has been harvested./IPSci)0-D2a)C.0C.)0a1)C.)Annual rate of productionQ/oFigure H. 1. Timber supply curve.559
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good that is achievable at various costs. For timber, <strong>the</strong> supply curve reflects<strong>the</strong> real costs that would be incurred in all <strong>the</strong> activities needed to grow trees,harvest timber, and bring logs to <strong>the</strong> mills to be sawn into lumber. Such costsinclude <strong>for</strong>est management, road construction, cutting and loading, andtransportation. It also includes <strong>the</strong> cost of complying with regulations designedto reduce <strong>the</strong> environmental effects of <strong>the</strong>se activities.As is <strong>the</strong> general case with supply curves, <strong>the</strong> timber supply curve slopesupward as shown in Figure H. 1. At any given time, <strong>the</strong>re are numerous sitesthat could be harvested at various costs. When prices are higher, it is worthwhileincurring greater costs to harvest additional timber. The upward slopingsupply curve reflects <strong>the</strong> economic diversity of <strong>the</strong> existing <strong>for</strong>estlands. Itresults from a mixture of stands of timber, some with relatively low costs perboard foot, some with relatively high.The supply curve can be derived from a table listing <strong>the</strong> annual amount oftimber that could be harvested at each cost from each site in <strong>the</strong> inventory.The total amount that could be produced at each cost is <strong>the</strong> sum of <strong>the</strong> annualharvest at that cost from all <strong>the</strong> sites. The supply curve shows <strong>the</strong> annualproduction at each price which is <strong>the</strong> sum of <strong>the</strong> potential annual harvest at allcosts less than or equal to <strong>the</strong> price. Table H.7 provides an example of this wayof deriving a supply curve. Figure H.2 shows <strong>the</strong> supply curve derived fromTable H.7.A region's timber supply curve reflects <strong>the</strong> condition of its current inventory ofstanding timber. For example, Figure H.3 shows two supply curves, one thatwould yield very high levels of production over a broad range of timber pricesand a second that yields relatively little production at low prices, moderateproduction at midrange prices and not much increase in production even atfairly high prices. The first would characterize production from <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>estlandsin a region that has a substantial inventory of mature standing timber, <strong>the</strong>second from a region with limited <strong>for</strong>estlands or <strong>for</strong>estlands where <strong>the</strong> lowercost timber already has been harvested./IPSci)0-D2a)C.0C.)0a1)C.)Annual rate of productionQ/oFigure H. 1. Timber supply curve.559