Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT

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V. Preliminary Evaluation of the EconomicEffects of Implementing the Spotted OwlRecovery Plan558A. Economic Effects Covered by Preliminaiy EstimatesThe Recovery Team drew upon the studies summarized in Section IV, particularlythe FWS analysis, to develop preliminary estimates of the economic costsof implementing the recovery plan. Estimates of the following indicators ofeconomic costs were made:* Reduction in federal timber sale volumes and revenues and the resultingeffects on U.S. Treasury and county budgets.* Reduction in employment levels.* Reduction in wage and salary income due to unemployment andreemployment at lower wages.Estimates were not made of other economic effects such as capital asset losses,recreation or the other benefits of forest preservation, and increased profits orharvest by private forestland owners. Quantitative estimates of social costs ofimplementing the recovery plan were not made.These preliminary estimates were not intended to provide a complete basis forfinal decisions on the implementation of the draft recovery plan. During thepublic comment period, the Recovery Team will work with the Forest Serviceand the BLM to refine the estimates of effects of federal timber sales based onmore site-specific data on potential timber yields. In addition, estimates will beprepared of economic effects not covered by the preliminary estimates.B. Analytical ConceptsThis section summarizes the basic analytical concepts needed to estimate andproperly account for the economic effects of reduced federal timber harvests.Next it summarizes the estimation methods and assumptions used for thepreliminary estimates and presents the resulting estimates.This section provides an economic framework within which the various factorsthat affect the costs of achieving recovery can be related. The discussion ispresented in qualitative, non-mathematical terms to facilitate a broader understandingand use of the concepts. The basic concepts are presented in a singleperiod, comparative static analysis for the sake of simplicity. For a comprehensiveanalysis of long-term effects, the concepts would be extended to dealwith many time periods. This would reflect the effects of timber growth and theconcept that resource values realized sooner are worth more than the samevalue if realized later. It also would deal more explicitly with the dynamicprocesses through which local and regional economies adjust to the kind ofstructural economic change caused by policies restricting timber harvest. Thefollowing discussion takes a static approach to provide a more easily understandableanalytical framework.1. The Supply Curve.The supply curve for a commodity is one of the fundamental concepts ofeconomic analysis. It represents the rate of production for a commodity or
good that is achievable at various costs. For timber, the supply curve reflectsthe real costs that would be incurred in all the activities needed to grow trees,harvest timber, and bring logs to the mills to be sawn into lumber. Such costsinclude forest management, road construction, cutting and loading, andtransportation. It also includes the cost of complying with regulations designedto reduce the environmental effects of these activities.As is the general case with supply curves, the timber supply curve slopesupward as shown in Figure H. 1. At any given time, there are numerous sitesthat could be harvested at various costs. When prices are higher, it is worthwhileincurring greater costs to harvest additional timber. The upward slopingsupply curve reflects the economic diversity of the existing forestlands. Itresults from a mixture of stands of timber, some with relatively low costs perboard foot, some with relatively high.The supply curve can be derived from a table listing the annual amount oftimber that could be harvested at each cost from each site in the inventory.The total amount that could be produced at each cost is the sum of the annualharvest at that cost from all the sites. The supply curve shows the annualproduction at each price which is the sum of the potential annual harvest at allcosts less than or equal to the price. Table H.7 provides an example of this wayof deriving a supply curve. Figure H.2 shows the supply curve derived fromTable H.7.A region's timber supply curve reflects the condition of its current inventory ofstanding timber. For example, Figure H.3 shows two supply curves, one thatwould yield very high levels of production over a broad range of timber pricesand a second that yields relatively little production at low prices, moderateproduction at midrange prices and not much increase in production even atfairly high prices. The first would characterize production from the forestlandsin a region that has a substantial inventory of mature standing timber, thesecond from a region with limited forestlands or forestlands where the lowercost timber already has been harvested./IPSci)0-D2a)C.0C.)0a1)C.)Annual rate of productionQ/oFigure H. 1. Timber supply curve.559
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I 1.2:Sp 6/draftRecovery Plan for t
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List of FiguresTable 4.1 Abbreviate
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Recovery ObjectiveSecretary of the
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Management Rules for Designated Con
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Monitoring and Research ProgramThe
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Chapter IIntroduction1
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"Threatened species" means a specie
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B. The Interagency Scientific Commi
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lished works and many government do
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II.A. Natural History of theNorther
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I- \IzXelT - - -.11 I..., ... I.."
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spring. Territories probably are sm
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Northern goshawks (Accipiter gentil
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also use a variety of nest sites in
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Home Range SizeHome range is define
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Table 2.2. Median amounts of old-gr
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3. Life Historycannot reject the hy
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Dispersal1984, Thomas et al. 1990,
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4. ConclusionOur knowledge of the n
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Ca n a d aEastern Washington Cascad
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Table 2.3. Estimated spotted owl ha
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Table 2.4. Significant threats to t
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Table 2.5. Results of surveys for s
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isolated. In these provinces, small
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centers for 30 to 35 spotted owl te
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Southwest Washington occupies a key
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Distribution of Habitat and Populat
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Province Isolation. The eastern Was
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were in suitable habitat condition.
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Estimated acres of forest landbase:
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owned and contain little suitable h
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Vulnerability to Natural Disturbanc
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Douglas-fir/hardwood types, the lat
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miles from the contiguous populatio
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In comparison, the southern part of
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Sacramento River Canyon now provide
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On January 11, 1980, there was an a
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vation Strategy for the Northern Sp
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transfer of one area to the Grand R
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The BLM Spokane (Washington) Distri
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3. National Park ServiceThe followi
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The results of a consultation are s
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- Since landowners already face cut
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4. Cumulative Effects AssessmentThe
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Assessment, Planning, and Monitorin
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Spotted owl nesting sites and activ
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Coastal Oregon Productivity Enhance
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including wildlife. In other cases,
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Currently, the Yakima Indian Nation
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where timber harvest is limited to
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III.A. Recovery Objective and Delis
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4. The population is unlikely to ne
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Needs of other species should be co
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years. The strategy of managing for
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't0
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Finally, the plan recommends mainta
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A total of 1,181 pairs of owls has
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DKnown owlsin the OregonprovincesKn
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mologists, and representatives of o
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this prey species is an appropriate
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After 100 years residual snags will
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2. Fuelwood Gathering. If allowed,
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The application of prescriptions A,
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owls. (Refer to tables in section I
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PRESCRIPTION D -RETAIN OWLS IN MANA
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126
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DCA Management Plans.The recovery p
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Endangered Species Act) or through
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6. Costs to landowners should be re
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The real or perceived disincentives
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authority of the public body to ent
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* Use the recovery plan's recommend
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140
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Supplemental pair areas - Habitat d
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Numbers of owls currently are estim
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Biological goals and implementation
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ning. Also, several unsurveyed area
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Owl pairsKnown owlsin the province3
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- Initiate long-range planning effo
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Table 3.8. Summary comments on the
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from nonfederal lands are needed to
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Eastern Washington Cascades Provinc
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(Owl pairs140 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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habitat in DCA WD- 16. Approximatel
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Table 3.12. Summary comments on the
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Ttllwrnook/Astoria area. Provide su
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connectivity between key DCAs. This
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ITable 3.14. Summary comments on th
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crest of the Cascade Mountains. The
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sites on federal lands (figure 3.21
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Owl pairsL I 350- _ _ . ...........
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DCAs, often combined with adjacent
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Owl pairsLiKnown owlsin the provinc
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nesting and roosting habitat until
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Option 3: Management of clusters: g
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Table 3.21. Summary of acreage and
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Owl pairs -Known owlsin the provinc
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and to within 0.5 miles of the acti
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Spotted owls have been found at 86
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their distance from other sites. Ar
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* Recommend population and habitat
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away in some or all of the range. D
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4. What are the population dynamics
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If the monitoring and research prog
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lowlands, eastern Oregon Cascades,
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210
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Stepdown Outline1. Management Tasks
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Table 4.1 Abbreviated Cost TableThe
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continued-TaskPriorityResp. PartyCo
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218
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220
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and the number of invertebrate anim
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Table 5.2. Numbers of other species
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Amphibians and Reptiles: Larch Moun
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228
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230
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Barrows, C. W. 1980. Feeding ecolog
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Clark, R. J., D. G. Smith, and L. H
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Franklin, A. B., J. A. Blakesley, a
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Harestad, A. S., and F. L. Bunnell.
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Lundquist, R. W. and J. M. Mariani.
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O'Halloran, K. 1989. Spotted owl in
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Solis, D. M. 1980. Habitat use by n
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Young, K. D., A. B. Franklin, and J
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248
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250
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Table A.1. General approaches for e
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complete count of the territorial b
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Table A.3. Powera for various desig
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Table A.4. Illustration of a Markov
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Obviously, these statements hold on
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Table A.6. Reliability of trend est
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Demographic AnalysisAs noted earlie
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the estimate (using the simple equa
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however, we know little about the b
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Table A.8. Summary of information n
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predict the power achieved by diffe
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Other studiestached. If dispersing
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impractical at present. We describe
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Conclusionsthe year effect can be i
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280
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282
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284
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owls. Consequently, the issue of wh
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Use of the informationAssessments a
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Recent LiteratureWe might begin by
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Kerms (1989) measured habitat struc
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Hamer (pers. comm.) described 11 ne
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Table B.3. Percent hardwoods in the
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Table B.5. Comparison of habitats u
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Table B.8. Tree density (number of
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and numbers of trees, and percent o
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Under this hypothesis, owl fitness
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suitable habitat for that region (m
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ResultsDiscussionspotted owl habita
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__Discussiondata from 41 sites in t
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Recommendations for Future Research
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314
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Hamer, T. 1988. Home range size of
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318
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320
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Parameter Estimatesfor Individual S
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provided in Table C. 5. Study of th
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Table C.6. Summary of statistics re
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3. ConclusionsThis source of bias i
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330
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Gray Wolf .........................
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formed during the initial meeting t
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provide habitat for the numerous sp
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The ApproachA committee of the Reco
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The List of Threatened and Endanger
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Mammalsoldest trees in a stand. Eig
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ABBFigure D. 1. Distribution of: a)
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KTable D.3. A list of threatened an
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Fishestheir dispersal capabilities
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OlympicNorthcoastalRockyMountainSou
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continued-StatusabState Considered
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continued-SpeciesColumbia sidebandM
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endemic to the Pacific Northwest).
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------continued-SpeciesRhyacophila
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continued-SpeciesFed3tatusa bStateW
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StatusasbOld ForestState Associatio
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Summaryspores (Maser et al. 1978b).
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Biology of Owl Prey, Older Forest A
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Woodrats.-The dusky-footed woodrat
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and are less restrictive under stat
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Stock concept.-The term "stock" was
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Table D.10. List of fish stocks of
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continued-Steelhead-owipu Sea-runTr
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continued-BasinHoodWillametteRogueS
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Table D.13. Washington streams (or
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inland distribution currently decre
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nesting territories in the three st
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However, little is known about the
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Fisher (Martes penncmti)Distributio
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at one time supported marten popula
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each population of these animals is
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species also is found under the bar
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few meters from water after heavy r
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In considering the needs of other s
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Barrows, C. W. 1981. Roost selectio
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Clark, T. W., E. Anderson, C. Dougl
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Hamer, T. E. 1991. Habitat relation
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Mannan, R. W., E. C. Meslow, and H.
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Oakley, A. L., Collins, J. A., Ever
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Solis, D. M. 1983. Summer habitat e
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Washington Natural Heritage Program
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414
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f. Wilderness.g. Livestock grazing.
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I. Monitoring.1. Northern spotted o
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420
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here will reduce some of that habit
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424
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426
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Selection of Forest TypesAt the tim
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eceive as little as 25 inches. Disc
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A. FireThe combination and interact
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Table F.4. Important forest insects
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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D. DiseasesForest diseases in the P
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III. Forest Protection in theWest C
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120 100200 500I~~~~.K446Figure F.4.
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InsectsDiseasesInsects in this subr
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__hardwoods are immune. Shade toler
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pests (Schowalter 1988). Black stai
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tion and initial attack. If manipul
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log and snag density was likely low
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B. Management Effects on StandsMana
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units (underburning or lop/scatter)
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In the higher elevation White Fir a
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growth often increases (Reinhardt a
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50rcc4*0-cC)2M CmZ13010-yearI ,...*
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In the East Cascades subregion fore
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The introduced disease, white pine
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VI. Conclusionsmortality will resul
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Baker, F.A. 1988. The influence of
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Habeck, J.R. 1990. Old-growth ponde
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Perry, D.A., and J.G. Borchers. 199
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Weatherspoon, C.P., and C.N. Skinne
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482
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484
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area, structure, ages, location; ne
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Stand AFigure G.2. A--unthmnned Dou
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figure 0.3. Effects of thinning Dou
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II. Review of Natural Vegetation an
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western hemlock, and sometimes othe
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year intervals (Appendix F). With t
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Live crown ratiobecent)6050IStand A
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Basal area growth continued to incr
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technology probably will allow some
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Stand A. No activities (west side 3
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Stand A. No activities (west side o
Page 524 and 525: acre, 4 to 12 inches in diameter),
Page 526 and 527: allow redwood sprout clumps maximum
Page 528 and 529: KAge 15 years - 511 trees per acre,
Page 530 and 531: 6Stems per acre100 _ Stand A. Natur
Page 532 and 533: Basal Area(square feetper acre)50 1
Page 534 and 535: * Opening the canopy in small patch
Page 536 and 537: Drew, T.J. and J.W. Flewelling. 197
Page 538 and 539: Miller, R.E.; D.L. Reukema, and R.L
Page 540 and 541: Tappeiner, J.C., P.M. McDonald, and
Page 542 and 543: 526
Page 544 and 545: 528
Page 546 and 547: 6. Timber supply curve and economic
Page 548 and 549: scientifically credible biological
Page 550 and 551: E. Summary of Preliminary Estimates
Page 552 and 553: II. General Economic Principles for
Page 554 and 555: practices may be able to show how s
Page 556 and 557: Economic patterns show the efficien
Page 558 and 559: The sustainable yield concept that
Page 560 and 561: A. Previously Estimated Economic Co
Page 562 and 563: County receipts were estimated to d
Page 564 and 565: B. Potential Social Costs of Owl Co
Page 566 and 567: The contrast between the behavior d
Page 568 and 569: 0U1 n1nDTable H.2. Economic depende
Page 570 and 571: cḻlTable H.4. Economic characteri
Page 572 and 573: An analysis completed by the State
Page 576 and 577: 25-° 20/0M 15-a)CLU)0 10-0CL 5 -0)
Page 578 and 579: 25 -- 20-0co/o 15--Da)a0a)10m~ C) 5
Page 580 and 581: forestlands. The costs of productio
Page 582 and 583: In Figure H.8, the equilibrium betw
Page 584 and 585: foregone and the way they will save
Page 586 and 587: The income created by the purchase
Page 588 and 589: Two concepts are useful for underst
Page 590 and 591: y an estimate of the price that wou
Page 592 and 593: Table H.10. Comparison of timber em
Page 594 and 595: of the second year. The same assump
Page 596 and 597: are generally much lower than for c
Page 598 and 599: 582
Page 600 and 601: studies at University of Washington
Page 602 and 603: 586
Page 604 and 605: Most significant late successionall
Page 606 and 607: to evaluate options. Information in
Page 608 and 609: Q0Table 1.1. Estimated acres and ow
Page 610 and 611: soTable 1.3. Estimated acres and ow
Page 612 and 613: 01CDarTable 1.5. Size class distrib
Page 614 and 615: Table 1.8. Frequency distribution o
Page 616 and 617: Literature CitedThomas, J.W., E.D.
Page 618 and 619: 602
Page 620 and 621: - The overlap of home ranges among
Page 622 and 623: Table J.2. Acreage and owl numbers
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continuedDCA Land AcreageIdent. Sta
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Table J.4. Acreage and owl numbers
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Table J.9. Acrea ?e and owl numbers
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continued-DCA LandIdent. StatusAcre
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-DCAIdent.LandStatusAcreageNRF Tota
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626
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Experience Includes: Assistant Dire
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Education: B.S. in forestry from Or
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Team SupportCharles Bruce, Oregon D
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continued-1 5-24-91 Other SpeciesSu
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continued-9-16 thru9-20-919-19-91Sp
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Perry, D. 1991. The ecology of coar
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2mandate the achievement of recover
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642
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644
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Aspect - the direction a slope face
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Congressionally classified and desi
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Empirical - derived from direct obs
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Hummocky - a landscape characterize
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Mixed conifer - as used in this doc
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Potential habitat - a stand of tree
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Sensitive species - those species t
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Take -Uunder the Endangered Species
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wild, scenic, or recreational by an
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