Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT

A. Previously Estimated Economic Costs of OwlConservation ProposalsThe Recovery Team reviewed six major studies of the economic effects of owlconservation. This was done to gain a better understanding of the factors thatcontribute to the high cost of protecting the owl and to identify analytic methods,assumptions, and data that could be used in producing economic informationabout the recovery plan. These studies are summarized briefly.1. The Economic Consequences of Preserving Old-Growth Timberfor SpottedOwls in Oregon and Washington. Walter J. Mead et al., University of California,Santa Barbara. October 1990.This study provided a comprehensive analysis of the economic effects ofpreserving the remaining old-growth forests of Oregon and Washington toprovide habitat for the owl. In addition to the nearly 2 million acres of oldgrowthalready set aside in preserves, such as national parks and wildernessareas, the proposal would protect from harvesting all other old-growth, estimatedhere to be more than 4 million acres. A harvest reduction of 2,257million board feet on federal lands is estimated to be partially offset in earlyyears by increased harvest from younger forests on private lands.The estimated net cost of this proposal during the next 50 years is $24.5 billion(discounted to present value at 4 percent). Direct job losses are estimated tobe as high as 18,000 jobs.The Mead study provided estimates of the following economic effects:* The value of foregone old-growth timber harvest,* The value of foregone second-growth timber harvest that would have beengrown on lands from which old-growth is cut,* The loss in the value of capital equipment, primarily saw mills,* The loss in the value of labor due to unemployment and reemployment atlower wages,* The increased value of recreation in old-growth forests.2. Social and Economic Impacts of Spotted Owl Conservation Strategy. John H.Beuter et al., for the American Forest Resource Alliance, 1990.The Beuter study examined the economic, social, and cultural effects of theconservation strategy for the northern spotted owl prepared by the InteragencyScientific Committee (ISC) (Thomas et al. 1990). The ISC strategy established anetwork of habitat conservation areas (HCAs) encompassing about 5 millionacres of forestland managed by the Forest Service and the BLM. Significantportions of the HCAs are not currently old-growth, but under the prohibitionon timber harvest in HCAs, these portions would become owl habitat in futuredecades. Significant amounts of old-growth forests were not included in theHCAs, but were to be partly protected under a rule requiring 50 percent ofeach quarter-township of federal forest outside the HCAs to be left with treesaveraging at least 11 inches in diameter and providing 40 percent canopyclosure (the 50-11-40 rule).The estimated annual timber harvest on federal lands in the Pacific Northwestduring the 1991-2000 period would be reduced by 1.6 billion board feet.Oregon and Washington federal lands would experience an estimated reductionof 1.4 billion board feet per year.The Beuter study estimates that the implementation of the ISC strategy onpublic land would cause direct job losses of 17,133 and total job losses of544