Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT

E. Summary of Preliminary Estimates of the EconomicEffects of Implementing the Recovery PlanPreliminary estimates of the economic effects of the draft recovery plan areincluded in this appendix. They were developed to provide an early basis forcomparison between the draft recovery plan and other owl conservation andforest preservation proposals. To provide a consistent basis for such comparisons,the estimates were developed using the same estimation methods appliedby the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in evaluating the effects of thecritical habitat designation for the spotted owl. These estimation methods aresummarized in section IV. and are described in more detail in Economic Analysisof Critical Habitat Designation Effectsfor the Northern Spotted Owl publishedby the FWS at the time of the critical habitat designation (USDI 1992).There are several important limitations in the preliminary estimates providedfor the draft recovery plan. The most important limitation is that these preliminaryestimates do not reflect site-specific assessments of the timber potential ofthe forestland included in each of the DCAs. In addition, they do not providesufficiently precise estimates of the timber harvest and economic benefits fromthe salvage and silvicultural activities allowed in the DCAs. The RecoveryTeam will work with the management agencies during review of the draftrecovery plan to develop timber harvest estimates based on more site-specificinformation.The preliminary estimates do not include measures of the benefits of implementingthe recovery plan. Nor do they reflect the potential increase in privatetimber industry harvest in response to the higher timber prices that are likelyto result from implementing the plan. Such effects are analyzed in the FWS'seconomic analysis of the critical habitat designation and will be reflected inestimates prepared for the final recovery plan.Implementation of the recovery plan would reduce future annual timberharvests in the federal forests of the Pacific Northwest below the levels thatwould otherwise occur. It is estimated that the network of DCAs would reducemid- 1990s timber harvests by 1.3 billion board feet per year in comparison tothe levels that would occur under federal agencies' plans. This reduction infederal timber harvest is expected to reduce the economic benefits of timberharvest by about $470 million per year over the next 20 years or more . Employmentlevels in the timber industry are estimated to decline by 18,900 jobsas the industry shrinks to a size appropriate to lower harvest levels. Employmentlevels in related sectors also will decline by an estimated 13,200 jobs.The displacement of workers and their reemployment at generally lower wagelevels are estimated to cause wage losses of $1.4 billion during the next 20years.Further reductions in timber harvest will result from protection of habitat inthe areas outside DCAs, on federal and nonfederal land. No estimates of thesereductions have been made at this time, but estimates will be prepared for thefinal recovery plan. Previous studies have shown that similar policies proposedby the Interagency Scientific Committee (ISC) would reduce annual federaltimber harvest in areas outside of the habitat conservation areas (HCAs) byabout 0.7 billion board feet. The reduction in federal harvest outside of theDCAs is expected to be of similar magnitude.Several features of the draft recovery plan will tend to offset the economiceffects of restrictions on federal timber harvest. First, the recovery plan allowssilvicultural treatments within DCAs if they are designed to promote thedevelopment of habitat conditions suitable for owls in areas that are not534