Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT

The introduced disease, white pine blister rust, has been particularly devastatingto western white pine and sugar pine. Native western gall rust has increasedin plantations of lodgepole pine and also occurs in ponderosa pine.C. Likely Outcome of a Total Protection StrategyOver the Next CenturyFireWindInsectsTotal protection in the context of this section of the report is defined as 'handsoff'management within designated conservation areas for the next 100 years.A total fire suppression strategy has created the multilayered yet unstableforest structure present on the landscape today. There is a very low probabilitythat any DCA created in the East Cascades subregion will avoid catastrophicwildfire over a significant portion of its landscape over the next century. MostDCAs will exhibit landscape effects of fire similar to those in the Entiat Riverwatershed. Fires of high severity and wide extent (with little overlap) haveburned in 1970, 1974, 1976, and 1988 in areas once capable of supportingowls. In the 1970 fire area, many midslope and ridge areas exhibited apresettlement pattern of low intensity fires, with even-aged lodgepole pinestands in valley bottoms, suggesting longer interval, higher severity fires in thevalleys. With the more continuous fuels provided by successful fire protection,the 1970 fires were more uniformly stand replacement in nature. One stumpbared by salvage in a burned area of the 1988 fire showed a fire-free period of99 years over which a dense, stagnated understory developed (a 60-year-oldponderosa pine was 2 inches in diameter). Before that, the tree survivedunderburns in 1870, 1860, 1850, 1830, and 1817, with earlier fire scarserased by the later burns.If fires can be suppressed, root rots are likely to accelerate their spread. Treessignificantly infected by root rots have an increased probability of windthrow.Such windthrow pockets begin as small circles and eventually widen as theroot rots spread laterally to susceptible tree species. Resistant species willregenerate or be released in the openings, creating a younger, all-sized stand ofprimarily shade tolerant species. These are likely to be affected by otherpathogens or insects and be heavily damaged by wildfires.Fire exclusion, coupled with natural mortality factors, gradually reduce thepine and larch components of mixed conifer stands. Insect outbreaks associatedwith these seral species should show a gradual reduction in severity.However, the resulting multistoried stands of Douglas-fir and true fir createconditions for the buildup of defoliators. Douglas-fir tussock moth and westemspruce budworm populations will increase, with frequent outbreaks.Episodes of tree defoliation and/or drought in east side stands will result insevere outbreaks of the Douglas-fir beetle and fir engraver beetle. Accumulationsof heavy fuels within stands will make total fire protection very difficult.Large, fire-damaged Douglas-fir trees are susceptible to bark beetle attack.470