Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT

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Table C.6. Summary of statistics related to model selection, based on 64 models. Foreach model the three table entries are number of model parameters, -2-loge(L), andAIC. The best model is indicated by the box.Recapture Rate, pSurvivalRate g*t G+t t g*T g+T T gg9t 47 36 31 36 32 28 31 271664.54 1681.92 1700.07 1674.01 1683.27 1701.75 1686.76 1705.231758.54 1753.92 1762.07 1746.01 1747.27 1757.35 1748.76 1759.23g+l 36 20 16 20 16 12 15 111672.76 1694.44 1713.53 1689.23 1698.32 1715.82 1703.48 1719.621744.76 1734.44 1745.53 1729.23 1730.32 1739.82 1733.48 1741.61t 31 16 11 16 12 8 11 71673.82 1702.36 1721.30 1691.92 1705.49 1722.69 1708.83 1725.851735.82 1734.36 1743.30 1723.92 1729.49 1738.69 1730.83 1739.85g*T 36 20 16 20 16 12 15 111674.09 1696.88 1714.06 1690.32 1698.65 1717.14 1701.63 1720.151746.09 1736.88 1746.06 1730.32 1730.65 1741.14 1731.63 1742.15g+T 32 16 12 16 12 8 11 71677.43 1705.04 1719.75 1696.17 1706.46 1723.24 1710.89 1726.141741.43 1737.04 1743.75 1728.17 1730.46 1739.24 1732.89 1740.14T 28 12 8 7 12 7 8 4 7 31678.54 1711.22 1725.85 1 1698.96 I 1714.22 1730.82 1716.35 1732.831734.54 1735.22 1741.85 1722 96L II1730.22 1738.82 1730.35 1738.83g 31 15 11 15 11 7 10 61678.39 1708.71 1721.44 1701.81 1714.77 1729.76 1715.12 1729.901740.39 1738.71 1743.44 1731.81 1736.77 1743.76 1735.12 1741.90- 27 11 7 11 7 3 6 21679.11 1712.14 1726.42 1703.89 1719.31 1735.57 1719.33 1735.601733.11 1734.14 1750.42 1725.89 1733.31 1741.57 1731.33 1739.60An additional perspective concerning this source of potential bias can begained by examining the value for juvenile survival necessary to force X = 1(with the same adult survival and fecundity values). The large increases inestimated juvenile survival, shown here, seem unfounded.Study $'IX = 1 % increaseNorthwest California 0.49 151H.J. Andrews 0.60 93Medford 0.89 345Roseburg 0.53 87Olympic Peninsula 0.52 6323'26Average 0.61 190
In summary, even with optimistic assumptions about juvenile survival rates,the best information suggests that the population of resident, ternitorial owlshas declined, on average, at an estimated rate of 7.5 percent each year duringthe 1985-91 period and that this rate of decline probably has accelerated inrecent years.Senescence is another potential problem: unaccounted for senescence leads tooverestimation of X. Likewise, it seems clear that fecundity is overestimatedeach year and this overestimation is more severe in years of poor production.K Table C.7. Estimates of average adult female survival (¢) \during 1985-91 for the northern spotted owl, based on thebest model out of 64 for the pooling of data across the fivestudy areas.Year ie( 0)1985-86 0.8880 0.02421986-87 0.8727 0.02021987-88 0.8556 0.01571988-89 0.8367 0.01241989-90 0.8158 0.01461990-91 0.7929 0.0231!Table C.8. Estimates of the finite rate of annual population change (x) for the northernspotted owl obtained by pooling all the data across the five study areas. Cases(explained in the text) make differing assumptions about juvenile survival rates.A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Case Years Female xae(X) cJz PSurvivalRatea~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 1985-86 Declining Omax1a 0.9813 0.0373 -0.4879 0.31281 1990-91 Declining Omaxia 0.8857 0.0362 -3.1575 0.00082 1985-91 Constant Omaxl 0.9259 0.0312 -2.3750 0.00883 1985-86 Declining Omax 2 b 0.9805 0.0322 -0.6056 0.27243 1990-91 Declining Omax2b 0.8844 0.0312 -3.7051 0.00014 1985-91 Constant Omax2 0.9246 0.0251 -3.0040 0.0013a The survival rate of juveniles was used for the area with the highest survival rate.The year with the highest survival was used for the Medford and Roseburg areas, thus the emigration was lowest.- . _ . ................................................. ,, , ............. . ..... ,327
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I 1.2:Sp 6/draftRecovery Plan for t
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List of FiguresTable 4.1 Abbreviate
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Recovery ObjectiveSecretary of the
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Management Rules for Designated Con
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Monitoring and Research ProgramThe
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Chapter IIntroduction1
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"Threatened species" means a specie
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B. The Interagency Scientific Commi
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lished works and many government do
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II.A. Natural History of theNorther
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I- \IzXelT - - -.11 I..., ... I.."
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spring. Territories probably are sm
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Northern goshawks (Accipiter gentil
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also use a variety of nest sites in
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Home Range SizeHome range is define
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Table 2.2. Median amounts of old-gr
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3. Life Historycannot reject the hy
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Dispersal1984, Thomas et al. 1990,
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4. ConclusionOur knowledge of the n
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Ca n a d aEastern Washington Cascad
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Table 2.3. Estimated spotted owl ha
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Table 2.4. Significant threats to t
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Table 2.5. Results of surveys for s
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isolated. In these provinces, small
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centers for 30 to 35 spotted owl te
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Southwest Washington occupies a key
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Distribution of Habitat and Populat
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Province Isolation. The eastern Was
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were in suitable habitat condition.
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Estimated acres of forest landbase:
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owned and contain little suitable h
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Vulnerability to Natural Disturbanc
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Douglas-fir/hardwood types, the lat
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miles from the contiguous populatio
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In comparison, the southern part of
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Sacramento River Canyon now provide
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On January 11, 1980, there was an a
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vation Strategy for the Northern Sp
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transfer of one area to the Grand R
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The BLM Spokane (Washington) Distri
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3. National Park ServiceThe followi
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The results of a consultation are s
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- Since landowners already face cut
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4. Cumulative Effects AssessmentThe
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Assessment, Planning, and Monitorin
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Spotted owl nesting sites and activ
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Coastal Oregon Productivity Enhance
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including wildlife. In other cases,
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Currently, the Yakima Indian Nation
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where timber harvest is limited to
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III.A. Recovery Objective and Delis
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4. The population is unlikely to ne
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Needs of other species should be co
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years. The strategy of managing for
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't0
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Finally, the plan recommends mainta
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A total of 1,181 pairs of owls has
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DKnown owlsin the OregonprovincesKn
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mologists, and representatives of o
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this prey species is an appropriate
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After 100 years residual snags will
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2. Fuelwood Gathering. If allowed,
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The application of prescriptions A,
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owls. (Refer to tables in section I
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PRESCRIPTION D -RETAIN OWLS IN MANA
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126
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DCA Management Plans.The recovery p
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Endangered Species Act) or through
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6. Costs to landowners should be re
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The real or perceived disincentives
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authority of the public body to ent
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* Use the recovery plan's recommend
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140
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Supplemental pair areas - Habitat d
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Numbers of owls currently are estim
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Biological goals and implementation
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ning. Also, several unsurveyed area
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Owl pairsKnown owlsin the province3
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- Initiate long-range planning effo
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Table 3.8. Summary comments on the
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from nonfederal lands are needed to
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Eastern Washington Cascades Provinc
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(Owl pairs140 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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habitat in DCA WD- 16. Approximatel
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Table 3.12. Summary comments on the
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Ttllwrnook/Astoria area. Provide su
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connectivity between key DCAs. This
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ITable 3.14. Summary comments on th
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crest of the Cascade Mountains. The
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sites on federal lands (figure 3.21
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Owl pairsL I 350- _ _ . ...........
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DCAs, often combined with adjacent
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Owl pairsLiKnown owlsin the provinc
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nesting and roosting habitat until
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Option 3: Management of clusters: g
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Table 3.21. Summary of acreage and
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Owl pairs -Known owlsin the provinc
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and to within 0.5 miles of the acti
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Spotted owls have been found at 86
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their distance from other sites. Ar
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* Recommend population and habitat
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away in some or all of the range. D
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4. What are the population dynamics
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If the monitoring and research prog
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lowlands, eastern Oregon Cascades,
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210
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Stepdown Outline1. Management Tasks
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Table 4.1 Abbreviated Cost TableThe
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continued-TaskPriorityResp. PartyCo
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218
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220
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and the number of invertebrate anim
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Table 5.2. Numbers of other species
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Amphibians and Reptiles: Larch Moun
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228
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230
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Barrows, C. W. 1980. Feeding ecolog
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Clark, R. J., D. G. Smith, and L. H
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Franklin, A. B., J. A. Blakesley, a
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Harestad, A. S., and F. L. Bunnell.
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Lundquist, R. W. and J. M. Mariani.
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O'Halloran, K. 1989. Spotted owl in
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Solis, D. M. 1980. Habitat use by n
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Young, K. D., A. B. Franklin, and J
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248
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250
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Table A.1. General approaches for e
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complete count of the territorial b
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Table A.3. Powera for various desig
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Table A.4. Illustration of a Markov
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Obviously, these statements hold on
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Table A.6. Reliability of trend est
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Demographic AnalysisAs noted earlie
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the estimate (using the simple equa
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however, we know little about the b
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Table A.8. Summary of information n
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predict the power achieved by diffe
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Other studiestached. If dispersing
Page 292 and 293: impractical at present. We describe
Page 294 and 295: Conclusionsthe year effect can be i
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Page 302 and 303: owls. Consequently, the issue of wh
Page 304 and 305: Use of the informationAssessments a
Page 306 and 307: Recent LiteratureWe might begin by
Page 308 and 309: Kerms (1989) measured habitat struc
Page 310 and 311: Hamer (pers. comm.) described 11 ne
Page 312 and 313: Table B.3. Percent hardwoods in the
Page 314 and 315: Table B.5. Comparison of habitats u
Page 316 and 317: Table B.8. Tree density (number of
Page 318 and 319: and numbers of trees, and percent o
Page 320 and 321: Under this hypothesis, owl fitness
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Page 324 and 325: ResultsDiscussionspotted owl habita
Page 326 and 327: __Discussiondata from 41 sites in t
Page 328 and 329: Recommendations for Future Research
Page 330 and 331: 314
Page 332 and 333: Hamer, T. 1988. Home range size of
Page 334 and 335: 318
Page 336 and 337: 320
Page 338 and 339: Parameter Estimatesfor Individual S
Page 340 and 341: provided in Table C. 5. Study of th
Page 344 and 345: 3. ConclusionsThis source of bias i
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Page 348 and 349: Gray Wolf .........................
Page 350 and 351: formed during the initial meeting t
Page 352 and 353: provide habitat for the numerous sp
Page 354 and 355: The ApproachA committee of the Reco
Page 356 and 357: The List of Threatened and Endanger
Page 358 and 359: Mammalsoldest trees in a stand. Eig
Page 360 and 361: ABBFigure D. 1. Distribution of: a)
Page 362 and 363: KTable D.3. A list of threatened an
Page 364 and 365: Fishestheir dispersal capabilities
Page 366 and 367: OlympicNorthcoastalRockyMountainSou
Page 368 and 369: continued-StatusabState Considered
Page 370 and 371: continued-SpeciesColumbia sidebandM
Page 372 and 373: endemic to the Pacific Northwest).
Page 374 and 375: ------continued-SpeciesRhyacophila
Page 376 and 377: continued-SpeciesFed3tatusa bStateW
Page 378 and 379: StatusasbOld ForestState Associatio
Page 380 and 381: Summaryspores (Maser et al. 1978b).
Page 382 and 383: Biology of Owl Prey, Older Forest A
Page 384 and 385: Woodrats.-The dusky-footed woodrat
Page 386 and 387: and are less restrictive under stat
Page 388 and 389: Stock concept.-The term "stock" was
Page 390 and 391: Table D.10. List of fish stocks of
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continued-Steelhead-owipu Sea-runTr
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continued-BasinHoodWillametteRogueS
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Table D.13. Washington streams (or
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inland distribution currently decre
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nesting territories in the three st
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However, little is known about the
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Fisher (Martes penncmti)Distributio
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at one time supported marten popula
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each population of these animals is
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species also is found under the bar
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few meters from water after heavy r
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In considering the needs of other s
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Barrows, C. W. 1981. Roost selectio
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Clark, T. W., E. Anderson, C. Dougl
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Hamer, T. E. 1991. Habitat relation
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Mannan, R. W., E. C. Meslow, and H.
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Oakley, A. L., Collins, J. A., Ever
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Solis, D. M. 1983. Summer habitat e
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Washington Natural Heritage Program
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414
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f. Wilderness.g. Livestock grazing.
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I. Monitoring.1. Northern spotted o
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420
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here will reduce some of that habit
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424
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426
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Selection of Forest TypesAt the tim
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eceive as little as 25 inches. Disc
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A. FireThe combination and interact
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Table F.4. Important forest insects
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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D. DiseasesForest diseases in the P
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III. Forest Protection in theWest C
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120 100200 500I~~~~.K446Figure F.4.
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InsectsDiseasesInsects in this subr
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__hardwoods are immune. Shade toler
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pests (Schowalter 1988). Black stai
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tion and initial attack. If manipul
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log and snag density was likely low
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B. Management Effects on StandsMana
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units (underburning or lop/scatter)
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In the higher elevation White Fir a
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growth often increases (Reinhardt a
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50rcc4*0-cC)2M CmZ13010-yearI ,...*
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In the East Cascades subregion fore
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The introduced disease, white pine
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VI. Conclusionsmortality will resul
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Baker, F.A. 1988. The influence of
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Habeck, J.R. 1990. Old-growth ponde
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Perry, D.A., and J.G. Borchers. 199
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Weatherspoon, C.P., and C.N. Skinne
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482
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484
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area, structure, ages, location; ne
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Stand AFigure G.2. A--unthmnned Dou
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figure 0.3. Effects of thinning Dou
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II. Review of Natural Vegetation an
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western hemlock, and sometimes othe
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year intervals (Appendix F). With t
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Live crown ratiobecent)6050IStand A
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Basal area growth continued to incr
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technology probably will allow some
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Stand A. No activities (west side 3
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Stand A. No activities (west side o
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acre, 4 to 12 inches in diameter),
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allow redwood sprout clumps maximum
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KAge 15 years - 511 trees per acre,
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6Stems per acre100 _ Stand A. Natur
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Basal Area(square feetper acre)50 1
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* Opening the canopy in small patch
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Drew, T.J. and J.W. Flewelling. 197
Page 538 and 539:
Miller, R.E.; D.L. Reukema, and R.L
Page 540 and 541:
Tappeiner, J.C., P.M. McDonald, and
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526
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528
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6. Timber supply curve and economic
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scientifically credible biological
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E. Summary of Preliminary Estimates
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II. General Economic Principles for
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practices may be able to show how s
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Economic patterns show the efficien
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The sustainable yield concept that
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A. Previously Estimated Economic Co
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County receipts were estimated to d
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B. Potential Social Costs of Owl Co
Page 566 and 567:
The contrast between the behavior d
Page 568 and 569:
0U1 n1nDTable H.2. Economic depende
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cḻlTable H.4. Economic characteri
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An analysis completed by the State
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V. Preliminary Evaluation of the Ec
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25-° 20/0M 15-a)CLU)0 10-0CL 5 -0)
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25 -- 20-0co/o 15--Da)a0a)10m~ C) 5
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forestlands. The costs of productio
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In Figure H.8, the equilibrium betw
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foregone and the way they will save
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The income created by the purchase
Page 588 and 589:
Two concepts are useful for underst
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y an estimate of the price that wou
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Table H.10. Comparison of timber em
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of the second year. The same assump
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are generally much lower than for c
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582
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studies at University of Washington
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586
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Most significant late successionall
Page 606 and 607:
to evaluate options. Information in
Page 608 and 609:
Q0Table 1.1. Estimated acres and ow
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soTable 1.3. Estimated acres and ow
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01CDarTable 1.5. Size class distrib
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Table 1.8. Frequency distribution o
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Literature CitedThomas, J.W., E.D.
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602
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- The overlap of home ranges among
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Table J.2. Acreage and owl numbers
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continuedDCA Land AcreageIdent. Sta
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Page 628 and 629:
Page 630 and 631:
Page 632 and 633:
Page 634 and 635:
Table J.9. Acrea ?e and owl numbers
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continued-DCA LandIdent. StatusAcre
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-DCAIdent.LandStatusAcreageNRF Tota
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626
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Experience Includes: Assistant Dire
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Education: B.S. in forestry from Or
Page 648 and 649:
Team SupportCharles Bruce, Oregon D
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continued-1 5-24-91 Other SpeciesSu
Page 652 and 653:
continued-9-16 thru9-20-919-19-91Sp
Page 654 and 655:
Perry, D. 1991. The ecology of coar
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2mandate the achievement of recover
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642
Page 660 and 661:
644
Page 662 and 663:
Aspect - the direction a slope face
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Congressionally classified and desi
Page 666 and 667:
Empirical - derived from direct obs
Page 668 and 669:
Hummocky - a landscape characterize
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Mixed conifer - as used in this doc
Page 672 and 673:
Potential habitat - a stand of tree
Page 674 and 675:
Sensitive species - those species t
Page 676 and 677:
Take -Uunder the Endangered Species
Page 678:
wild, scenic, or recreational by an
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Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT

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