10.07.2015
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Parameter Estimatesfor Individual Study AreasThe estimation of X was based on the Leslie-Lefkovitch approach summarizedin USDI (1990). Under this method, estimates of age-specific survival andfecundity are needed for the female component of the population. Modelselection for the estimation of survival probabilities relied on the AkaikeInformation Criterion (AIC), however some use of likelihood ratio tests wasmade. Data from the five study areas supported only two age-classes forannual survival estimates Uuvenile and all older classes = 'adults"). Estimatesof these parameters and measures of their precision are presented in TableC.2.Estimates of age-specific fecundity of females also followed the procedures inUSDI (1990), and these are summarized in Table C.3. with a measure of theprecision of the estimates.Estimates of X, computed from the estimates in Tables C.2. and C.3., estimatedprecision, and test statistics related to the null hypothesis (above) appear inTable C.4. While there are several potential biases in these estimates, it isclear from Table C.4. that the population of resident, territorial females hasdeclined in each of the five study areas. The simple average of the estimateswas X = 0.9022 which indicates a rate of decline of approximately 10 percentper year during 1985-199 1. Thus, the resident population was not replacingitself in any of the five large study areas. This is a critical finding. In eachcase, X is significantly less than 1 (see test statistics and P-values in TableC.4.). No statistical inference is made concerning x prior to these years ofstudy or in the future. These estimates of X represent a 5- or 6-year "snapshot"of the average annual change in the female component of these five populations.The t-test is based on the empirical variance among the five independentestima es of X, while the z-test is based on the theoretical standard error of X(i.e., IF var(,) /5). The t-test allows for significant variation in X within the fivestudy areas, however, a test for such variation was not significant (K2=5.1409,4 df, P=0.2731, (see Burnham et al. 1987:264-269). The estimated standardTable C.2. Estimates of age-specific annual survival rates for female northernspotted owls.Study Area First Year All Later YearsV322hid SC 0 J) $j se($J)Northwest California 0.1946 0.0509 0.8507 0.0224H.J. Andrews (western Oregon) 0.3112 0.1033 0.8365 0.0312Medford (southwestern Oregon) 0.2002 0.0513 0.7854 0.0258Roseburg (southwestern Oregon)a 0.2829 0.0366 0.8583 0.0131Olympic Peninsula (northwestern Washington)a 0.0707 0.0282 0.8603 0.02641. . - - - ---...- - 11 .......................... 1.. ..- ..-------.....a No sex-specific differences in adult survival were detectable, thus, the estimate of adult female survival includes adult males.
Table C.3. Estimates of age-specific fecundity (b) for female northern spotted owls(number of juvenile females/female of age x).Subadult 1 (12 mos.) Subadult 2 (24 mos.) Adult (36 mos.)Study Area (6i) se(b 1 ) (62) ie(62) (6) se(b)Northwest California 0.1154 0.0576 0.2286 0.0659 0.3576 0.0245H.J. Andrews (western Oregon) 0.1430 0.0780 0.1430 0.0780 0.3270 0.0500Medford (southwestern Oregon) 0.1110 0.0386 0.1110 0.0386 0.3233 0.4880Roseburg (southwestern Oregon)a 0.0938 0.0547 0.0938 0.0547 0.3304 0.0385Olympic Peninsula 0.1000 0.0667 0.1000 0.0667 0.3327 0.0784(northwestern Washington)a* Year-specific differences in (b).b ___~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~........., ., ... ....error of the true x across the five study areas (cJ was 0.0267 (95 percentconfidence interval is 0.0 to 0. 1073). Both tests indicate a strong rejection ofthe null hypothesis, and one must conclude that these populations are declining.Capture-recapture methods allow estimates, of the number of new entries intothe population of resident, territorial females (standard Jolly-Seber estimates,see USDI(1990:35-36)). Estimates of this quantity, averaged over years, areTable C.4. Estimates of the finite rate of annual population change (X) for femalenorthern spotted owls in five independent study areas throughout their range. Alsoshown are test statistics and P values for the test of the null hypothesis that X > 1vs.X< 1.A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Study Area s(e) t or z PNorthwest California 0.9153 0.0433 -1.9561 0.0252H.J. Andrews (western Oregon) 0.9276 0.0437 -1.6567 0.0488Medford (southwestern Oregon) 0.8444 0.0304 -5.1184 0.0000Roseburg (southwestern Oregon) 0.9405 0.0182 -3.2692 0.0005Olympic Peninsula (northwestern Washington) 0.8828 0.0280 -4.1857 0.0000Simple average and t-test 0.9021 0.0173 -5/7532 0.0024Simple average and z-test 0.9021 0.0153 -6.4155 0.0000323
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I 1.2:Sp 6/draftRecovery Plan for t
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List of FiguresTable 4.1 Abbreviate
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Recovery ObjectiveSecretary of the
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Management Rules for Designated Con
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Monitoring and Research ProgramThe
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Chapter IIntroduction1
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"Threatened species" means a specie
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B. The Interagency Scientific Commi
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lished works and many government do
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II.A. Natural History of theNorther
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I- \IzXelT - - -.11 I..., ... I.."
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spring. Territories probably are sm
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Northern goshawks (Accipiter gentil
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also use a variety of nest sites in
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Home Range SizeHome range is define
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Table 2.2. Median amounts of old-gr
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3. Life Historycannot reject the hy
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Dispersal1984, Thomas et al. 1990,
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4. ConclusionOur knowledge of the n
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Ca n a d aEastern Washington Cascad
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Table 2.3. Estimated spotted owl ha
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Table 2.4. Significant threats to t
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Table 2.5. Results of surveys for s
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isolated. In these provinces, small
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centers for 30 to 35 spotted owl te
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Southwest Washington occupies a key
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Distribution of Habitat and Populat
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Province Isolation. The eastern Was
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were in suitable habitat condition.
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Estimated acres of forest landbase:
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owned and contain little suitable h
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Vulnerability to Natural Disturbanc
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Douglas-fir/hardwood types, the lat
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miles from the contiguous populatio
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In comparison, the southern part of
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Sacramento River Canyon now provide
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On January 11, 1980, there was an a
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vation Strategy for the Northern Sp
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transfer of one area to the Grand R
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The BLM Spokane (Washington) Distri
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3. National Park ServiceThe followi
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The results of a consultation are s
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- Since landowners already face cut
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4. Cumulative Effects AssessmentThe
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Assessment, Planning, and Monitorin
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Spotted owl nesting sites and activ
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Coastal Oregon Productivity Enhance
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including wildlife. In other cases,
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Currently, the Yakima Indian Nation
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where timber harvest is limited to
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III.A. Recovery Objective and Delis
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4. The population is unlikely to ne
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Needs of other species should be co
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years. The strategy of managing for
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't0
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Finally, the plan recommends mainta
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A total of 1,181 pairs of owls has
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DKnown owlsin the OregonprovincesKn
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mologists, and representatives of o
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this prey species is an appropriate
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After 100 years residual snags will
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2. Fuelwood Gathering. If allowed,
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The application of prescriptions A,
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owls. (Refer to tables in section I
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PRESCRIPTION D -RETAIN OWLS IN MANA
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126
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DCA Management Plans.The recovery p
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Endangered Species Act) or through
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6. Costs to landowners should be re
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The real or perceived disincentives
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authority of the public body to ent
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* Use the recovery plan's recommend
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140
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Supplemental pair areas - Habitat d
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Numbers of owls currently are estim
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Biological goals and implementation
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ning. Also, several unsurveyed area
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Owl pairsKnown owlsin the province3
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- Initiate long-range planning effo
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Table 3.8. Summary comments on the
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from nonfederal lands are needed to
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Eastern Washington Cascades Provinc
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(Owl pairs140 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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habitat in DCA WD- 16. Approximatel
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Table 3.12. Summary comments on the
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Ttllwrnook/Astoria area. Provide su
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connectivity between key DCAs. This
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ITable 3.14. Summary comments on th
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crest of the Cascade Mountains. The
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ITable 3.16. Summary comments on th
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sites on federal lands (figure 3.21
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Owl pairsL I 350- _ _ . ...........
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DCAs, often combined with adjacent
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Owl pairsLiKnown owlsin the provinc
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nesting and roosting habitat until
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Option 3: Management of clusters: g
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Table 3.21. Summary of acreage and
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Owl pairs -Known owlsin the provinc
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and to within 0.5 miles of the acti
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Spotted owls have been found at 86
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ITable 3.24. Summary comments on th
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their distance from other sites. Ar
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* Recommend population and habitat
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away in some or all of the range. D
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4. What are the population dynamics
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If the monitoring and research prog
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lowlands, eastern Oregon Cascades,
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210
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Stepdown Outline1. Management Tasks
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Table 4.1 Abbreviated Cost TableThe
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continued-TaskPriorityResp. PartyCo
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218
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220
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and the number of invertebrate anim
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Table 5.2. Numbers of other species
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Amphibians and Reptiles: Larch Moun
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228
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230
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Barrows, C. W. 1980. Feeding ecolog
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Clark, R. J., D. G. Smith, and L. H
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Franklin, A. B., J. A. Blakesley, a
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Harestad, A. S., and F. L. Bunnell.
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Lundquist, R. W. and J. M. Mariani.
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O'Halloran, K. 1989. Spotted owl in
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Solis, D. M. 1980. Habitat use by n
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Young, K. D., A. B. Franklin, and J
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248
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250
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Table A.1. General approaches for e
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complete count of the territorial b
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Table A.3. Powera for various desig
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Table A.4. Illustration of a Markov
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Obviously, these statements hold on
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Table A.6. Reliability of trend est
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Demographic AnalysisAs noted earlie
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the estimate (using the simple equa
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however, we know little about the b
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Table A.8. Summary of information n
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predict the power achieved by diffe
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Other studiestached. If dispersing
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impractical at present. We describe
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Conclusionsthe year effect can be i
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280
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282
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284
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owls. Consequently, the issue of wh
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Use of the informationAssessments a
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Recent LiteratureWe might begin by
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Kerms (1989) measured habitat struc
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Hamer (pers. comm.) described 11 ne
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Table B.3. Percent hardwoods in the
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Table B.5. Comparison of habitats u
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Table B.8. Tree density (number of
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and numbers of trees, and percent o
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Under this hypothesis, owl fitness
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suitable habitat for that region (m
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ResultsDiscussionspotted owl habita
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__Discussiondata from 41 sites in t
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Recommendations for Future Research
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314
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Hamer, T. 1988. Home range size of
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318
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320
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provided in Table C. 5. Study of th
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Table C.6. Summary of statistics re
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3. ConclusionsThis source of bias i
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330
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Gray Wolf .........................
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formed during the initial meeting t
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provide habitat for the numerous sp
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The ApproachA committee of the Reco
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The List of Threatened and Endanger
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Mammalsoldest trees in a stand. Eig
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ABBFigure D. 1. Distribution of: a)
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KTable D.3. A list of threatened an
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Fishestheir dispersal capabilities
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OlympicNorthcoastalRockyMountainSou
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continued-StatusabState Considered
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continued-SpeciesColumbia sidebandM
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endemic to the Pacific Northwest).
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------continued-SpeciesRhyacophila
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continued-SpeciesFed3tatusa bStateW
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StatusasbOld ForestState Associatio
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Summaryspores (Maser et al. 1978b).
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Biology of Owl Prey, Older Forest A
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Woodrats.-The dusky-footed woodrat
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and are less restrictive under stat
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Stock concept.-The term "stock" was
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Table D.10. List of fish stocks of
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continued-Steelhead-owipu Sea-runTr
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continued-BasinHoodWillametteRogueS
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Table D.13. Washington streams (or
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inland distribution currently decre
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nesting territories in the three st
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However, little is known about the
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Fisher (Martes penncmti)Distributio
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at one time supported marten popula
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each population of these animals is
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species also is found under the bar
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few meters from water after heavy r
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In considering the needs of other s
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Barrows, C. W. 1981. Roost selectio
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Clark, T. W., E. Anderson, C. Dougl
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Hamer, T. E. 1991. Habitat relation
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Mannan, R. W., E. C. Meslow, and H.
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Oakley, A. L., Collins, J. A., Ever
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Solis, D. M. 1983. Summer habitat e
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Washington Natural Heritage Program
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414
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f. Wilderness.g. Livestock grazing.
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I. Monitoring.1. Northern spotted o
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420
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here will reduce some of that habit
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424
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426
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Selection of Forest TypesAt the tim
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eceive as little as 25 inches. Disc
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A. FireThe combination and interact
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Table F.4. Important forest insects
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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D. DiseasesForest diseases in the P
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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III. Forest Protection in theWest C
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120 100200 500I~~~~.K446Figure F.4.
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InsectsDiseasesInsects in this subr
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__hardwoods are immune. Shade toler
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pests (Schowalter 1988). Black stai
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tion and initial attack. If manipul
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log and snag density was likely low
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B. Management Effects on StandsMana
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units (underburning or lop/scatter)
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In the higher elevation White Fir a
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growth often increases (Reinhardt a
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50rcc4*0-cC)2M CmZ13010-yearI ,...*
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In the East Cascades subregion fore
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The introduced disease, white pine
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VI. Conclusionsmortality will resul
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Baker, F.A. 1988. The influence of
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Habeck, J.R. 1990. Old-growth ponde
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Perry, D.A., and J.G. Borchers. 199
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Weatherspoon, C.P., and C.N. Skinne
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482
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484
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area, structure, ages, location; ne
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Stand AFigure G.2. A--unthmnned Dou
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figure 0.3. Effects of thinning Dou
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II. Review of Natural Vegetation an
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western hemlock, and sometimes othe
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year intervals (Appendix F). With t
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Live crown ratiobecent)6050IStand A
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Basal area growth continued to incr
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technology probably will allow some
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Stand A. No activities (west side 3
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Stand A. No activities (west side o
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acre, 4 to 12 inches in diameter),
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allow redwood sprout clumps maximum
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KAge 15 years - 511 trees per acre,
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6Stems per acre100 _ Stand A. Natur
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Basal Area(square feetper acre)50 1
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* Opening the canopy in small patch
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Drew, T.J. and J.W. Flewelling. 197
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Miller, R.E.; D.L. Reukema, and R.L
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Tappeiner, J.C., P.M. McDonald, and
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526
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528
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6. Timber supply curve and economic
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Page 548 and 549:
scientifically credible biological
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E. Summary of Preliminary Estimates
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Page 552 and 553:
II. General Economic Principles for
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Page 554 and 555:
practices may be able to show how s
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Page 556 and 557:
Economic patterns show the efficien
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Page 558 and 559:
The sustainable yield concept that
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Page 560 and 561:
A. Previously Estimated Economic Co
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County receipts were estimated to d
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Page 564 and 565:
B. Potential Social Costs of Owl Co
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Page 566 and 567:
The contrast between the behavior d
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0U1 n1nDTable H.2. Economic depende
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cḻlTable H.4. Economic characteri
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Page 572 and 573:
An analysis completed by the State
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V. Preliminary Evaluation of the Ec
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25-° 20/0M 15-a)CLU)0 10-0CL 5 -0)
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25 -- 20-0co/o 15--Da)a0a)10m~ C) 5
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forestlands. The costs of productio
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Page 582 and 583:
In Figure H.8, the equilibrium betw
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Page 584 and 585:
foregone and the way they will save
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Page 586 and 587:
The income created by the purchase
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Page 588 and 589:
Two concepts are useful for underst
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y an estimate of the price that wou
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Page 592 and 593:
Table H.10. Comparison of timber em
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Page 594 and 595:
of the second year. The same assump
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are generally much lower than for c
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Page 598 and 599:
582
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studies at University of Washington
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Page 602 and 603:
586
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Page 604 and 605:
Most significant late successionall
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to evaluate options. Information in
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Page 608 and 609:
Q0Table 1.1. Estimated acres and ow
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soTable 1.3. Estimated acres and ow
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Page 612 and 613:
01CDarTable 1.5. Size class distrib
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Page 614 and 615:
Table 1.8. Frequency distribution o
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Page 616 and 617:
Literature CitedThomas, J.W., E.D.
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Page 618 and 619:
602
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Page 620 and 621:
- The overlap of home ranges among
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Page 622 and 623:
Table J.2. Acreage and owl numbers
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Page 624 and 625:
continuedDCA Land AcreageIdent. Sta
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Page 626 and 627:
Table J.4. Acreage and owl numbers
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Page 628 and 629:
Table J.5. Acreage and owl numbers
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Page 630 and 631:
Table J.6. Acreage and owl numbers
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Page 632 and 633:
Table J.7. Acreage and owl numbers
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Page 634 and 635:
Table J.9. Acrea ?e and owl numbers
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Page 636 and 637:
Table J.10. Acreage and owl numbers
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Page 638 and 639:
continued-DCA LandIdent. StatusAcre
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Page 640 and 641:
-DCAIdent.LandStatusAcreageNRF Tota
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626
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Experience Includes: Assistant Dire
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Page 646 and 647:
Education: B.S. in forestry from Or
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Page 648 and 649:
Team SupportCharles Bruce, Oregon D
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Page 650 and 651:
continued-1 5-24-91 Other SpeciesSu
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Page 652 and 653:
continued-9-16 thru9-20-919-19-91Sp
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Page 654 and 655:
Perry, D. 1991. The ecology of coar
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2mandate the achievement of recover
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Page 658 and 659:
642
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Page 660 and 661:
644
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Page 662 and 663:
Aspect - the direction a slope face
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Page 664 and 665:
Congressionally classified and desi
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Page 666 and 667:
Empirical - derived from direct obs
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Page 668 and 669:
Hummocky - a landscape characterize
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Page 670 and 671:
Mixed conifer - as used in this doc
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Page 672 and 673:
Potential habitat - a stand of tree
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Page 674 and 675:
Sensitive species - those species t
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Take -Uunder the Endangered Species
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wild, scenic, or recreational by an
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