Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl - DRAFT

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Conclusionsthe year effect can be ignored, and that formulas appropriate with simplerandom sampling are used in the analyses.Little difference occurs in sample size requirements if the proportions arebetween approximately 0.3 and 0.7. Productivity (which can probably bemodeled as a proportion since production of two female fledglings by a pair isreasonably rare) and the age ratio of first-time breeders are both probably inthe 0.3 to 0.7 range. Suppose sites were visited for 5 years. The number ofsites per group per year and associated 90 percent confidence intervals forestimated differences are approximately as follows: 50 sites, 0.09; 100 sites,0.06: 200 sites, 0.044; and 400 sites, 0.03 1. For example, if 100 sites in eachof two groups were each visited for 5 years, then the confidence interval for thedifference would be approximately 0.044. Average productivities of 0.30 and0.35, would be significantly different. In general, the sample size required todetect differences among groups would probably vary from 50 to 200 dependingon the level of precision required. For estimating or comparing adultsurvival rates, a larger sample might be needed because, while the standarderror is smaller with large probabilities, the difference one might wish to detectalso would be smaller.The brief analysis just discussed suggests that a reasonable target for theactivity site monitoring program would be 200 sites per year in each state (40to 60 sites per province). We-assume that these would be in addition to sites inthe density study areas. Such a program would permit numerous investigationsof how productivity, adult survival, age ratios, and replacement timesvaried across habitats or other environmental features, across the range, andthrough time. The results would be of great value in developing the populationmodeling approach, they would probably be useful in the capture-recaptureestimates, and they would provide confidence that populations were healthy orhelp identify problems if any occurred. The cost, 5 person-years per state for 5years, seems acceptable in light of current expenditures for monitoring activities.We stress again, however, that these are 'order of magnitude" estimatesintended solely to give a first impression of how large the sample sizes shouldbe. More detailed estimates can be provided after detailed objectives, and somepreliminary results, are available.Sample size guidelines for the other studies and cannot be provided until thespecific objectives and methods have been identified.The analyses and recommendations in this appendix are intended to provide aframework and a starting place for designing the monitoring program. Ourmain goal has been to demonstrate that such a program could be useful andcould satisfy the requirement in the Delisting Criteria for a "scientificallycredible sampling plan" at acceptable costs. Even if our estimates turn out tobe low, it seems clear that the monitoring program described could be carriedout at costs substantially less than those currently being incurred for spottedowl monitoring programs.278
Literature CitedBalser, J.P. 1981. Confidence interval estimation and tests for temporaryoutmigration in tag-recapture studies. Unpublished PhD Dissertation CornellUniversity, Ithaca, New York.Franklin, A. B. In press. Population regulation in northern spotted owls:theoretical implications for management. In D. McCullough and R. Barrett. ed.Wildlife 2001: Populations. Elsevier Press, Essex, England.McKelvey, K. 1991. A spatially explicit life-history simulator for the northernspotted owl. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and RangeExperiment Station.Thomas, J.W., E.D. Forsman, J.B. Lint, E.C. Meslow, B.R. Noon, and J.Verner. 1990. A conservation strategy for the northern spotted owl. Report ofthe Interagency Scientific Committee to address the conservation of the northernspotted owl. Forest Service, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of LandManagement, and National Park Service, Portland, Oregon, U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office. 1990-791-171/20026.Yates, R. 1960. Sampling methods for censuses and surveys. 3rd ed.London:Charles Griffin and Company.279
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I 1.2:Sp 6/draftRecovery Plan for t
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List of FiguresTable 4.1 Abbreviate
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Recovery ObjectiveSecretary of the
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Management Rules for Designated Con
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Monitoring and Research ProgramThe
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Chapter IIntroduction1
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"Threatened species" means a specie
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B. The Interagency Scientific Commi
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lished works and many government do
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II.A. Natural History of theNorther
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I- \IzXelT - - -.11 I..., ... I.."
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spring. Territories probably are sm
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Northern goshawks (Accipiter gentil
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also use a variety of nest sites in
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Home Range SizeHome range is define
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Table 2.2. Median amounts of old-gr
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3. Life Historycannot reject the hy
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Dispersal1984, Thomas et al. 1990,
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4. ConclusionOur knowledge of the n
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Ca n a d aEastern Washington Cascad
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Table 2.3. Estimated spotted owl ha
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Table 2.4. Significant threats to t
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Table 2.5. Results of surveys for s
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isolated. In these provinces, small
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centers for 30 to 35 spotted owl te
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Southwest Washington occupies a key
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Distribution of Habitat and Populat
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Province Isolation. The eastern Was
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were in suitable habitat condition.
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Estimated acres of forest landbase:
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owned and contain little suitable h
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Vulnerability to Natural Disturbanc
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Douglas-fir/hardwood types, the lat
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miles from the contiguous populatio
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In comparison, the southern part of
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Sacramento River Canyon now provide
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On January 11, 1980, there was an a
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vation Strategy for the Northern Sp
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transfer of one area to the Grand R
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The BLM Spokane (Washington) Distri
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3. National Park ServiceThe followi
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The results of a consultation are s
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- Since landowners already face cut
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4. Cumulative Effects AssessmentThe
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Assessment, Planning, and Monitorin
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Spotted owl nesting sites and activ
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Coastal Oregon Productivity Enhance
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including wildlife. In other cases,
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Currently, the Yakima Indian Nation
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where timber harvest is limited to
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III.A. Recovery Objective and Delis
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4. The population is unlikely to ne
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Needs of other species should be co
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years. The strategy of managing for
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't0
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Finally, the plan recommends mainta
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A total of 1,181 pairs of owls has
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DKnown owlsin the OregonprovincesKn
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mologists, and representatives of o
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this prey species is an appropriate
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After 100 years residual snags will
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2. Fuelwood Gathering. If allowed,
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The application of prescriptions A,
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owls. (Refer to tables in section I
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PRESCRIPTION D -RETAIN OWLS IN MANA
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126
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DCA Management Plans.The recovery p
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Endangered Species Act) or through
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6. Costs to landowners should be re
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The real or perceived disincentives
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authority of the public body to ent
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* Use the recovery plan's recommend
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140
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Supplemental pair areas - Habitat d
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Numbers of owls currently are estim
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Biological goals and implementation
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ning. Also, several unsurveyed area
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Owl pairsKnown owlsin the province3
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- Initiate long-range planning effo
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Table 3.8. Summary comments on the
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from nonfederal lands are needed to
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Eastern Washington Cascades Provinc
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(Owl pairs140 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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habitat in DCA WD- 16. Approximatel
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Table 3.12. Summary comments on the
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Ttllwrnook/Astoria area. Provide su
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connectivity between key DCAs. This
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ITable 3.14. Summary comments on th
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crest of the Cascade Mountains. The
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sites on federal lands (figure 3.21
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Owl pairsL I 350- _ _ . ...........
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DCAs, often combined with adjacent
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Owl pairsLiKnown owlsin the provinc
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nesting and roosting habitat until
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Option 3: Management of clusters: g
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Table 3.21. Summary of acreage and
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Owl pairs -Known owlsin the provinc
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and to within 0.5 miles of the acti
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Spotted owls have been found at 86
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their distance from other sites. Ar
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* Recommend population and habitat
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away in some or all of the range. D
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4. What are the population dynamics
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If the monitoring and research prog
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lowlands, eastern Oregon Cascades,
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210
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Stepdown Outline1. Management Tasks
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Table 4.1 Abbreviated Cost TableThe
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continued-TaskPriorityResp. PartyCo
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218
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220
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and the number of invertebrate anim
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Table 5.2. Numbers of other species
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Amphibians and Reptiles: Larch Moun
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Page 246 and 247: 230
Page 248 and 249: Barrows, C. W. 1980. Feeding ecolog
Page 250 and 251: Clark, R. J., D. G. Smith, and L. H
Page 252 and 253: Franklin, A. B., J. A. Blakesley, a
Page 254 and 255: Harestad, A. S., and F. L. Bunnell.
Page 256 and 257: Lundquist, R. W. and J. M. Mariani.
Page 258 and 259: O'Halloran, K. 1989. Spotted owl in
Page 260 and 261: Solis, D. M. 1980. Habitat use by n
Page 262 and 263: Young, K. D., A. B. Franklin, and J
Page 264 and 265: 248
Page 266 and 267: 250
Page 268 and 269: Table A.1. General approaches for e
Page 270 and 271: complete count of the territorial b
Page 272 and 273: Table A.3. Powera for various desig
Page 274 and 275: Table A.4. Illustration of a Markov
Page 276 and 277: Obviously, these statements hold on
Page 278 and 279: Table A.6. Reliability of trend est
Page 280 and 281: Demographic AnalysisAs noted earlie
Page 282 and 283: the estimate (using the simple equa
Page 284 and 285: however, we know little about the b
Page 286 and 287: Table A.8. Summary of information n
Page 288 and 289: predict the power achieved by diffe
Page 290 and 291: Other studiestached. If dispersing
Page 292 and 293: impractical at present. We describe
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Page 298 and 299: 282
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Page 302 and 303: owls. Consequently, the issue of wh
Page 304 and 305: Use of the informationAssessments a
Page 306 and 307: Recent LiteratureWe might begin by
Page 308 and 309: Kerms (1989) measured habitat struc
Page 310 and 311: Hamer (pers. comm.) described 11 ne
Page 312 and 313: Table B.3. Percent hardwoods in the
Page 314 and 315: Table B.5. Comparison of habitats u
Page 316 and 317: Table B.8. Tree density (number of
Page 318 and 319: and numbers of trees, and percent o
Page 320 and 321: Under this hypothesis, owl fitness
Page 322 and 323: suitable habitat for that region (m
Page 324 and 325: ResultsDiscussionspotted owl habita
Page 326 and 327: __Discussiondata from 41 sites in t
Page 328 and 329: Recommendations for Future Research
Page 330 and 331: 314
Page 332 and 333: Hamer, T. 1988. Home range size of
Page 334 and 335: 318
Page 336 and 337: 320
Page 338 and 339: Parameter Estimatesfor Individual S
Page 340 and 341: provided in Table C. 5. Study of th
Page 342 and 343: Table C.6. Summary of statistics re
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3. ConclusionsThis source of bias i
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330
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Gray Wolf .........................
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formed during the initial meeting t
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provide habitat for the numerous sp
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The ApproachA committee of the Reco
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The List of Threatened and Endanger
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Mammalsoldest trees in a stand. Eig
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ABBFigure D. 1. Distribution of: a)
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KTable D.3. A list of threatened an
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Fishestheir dispersal capabilities
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OlympicNorthcoastalRockyMountainSou
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continued-StatusabState Considered
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continued-SpeciesColumbia sidebandM
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endemic to the Pacific Northwest).
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------continued-SpeciesRhyacophila
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continued-SpeciesFed3tatusa bStateW
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StatusasbOld ForestState Associatio
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Summaryspores (Maser et al. 1978b).
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Biology of Owl Prey, Older Forest A
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Woodrats.-The dusky-footed woodrat
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and are less restrictive under stat
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Stock concept.-The term "stock" was
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Table D.10. List of fish stocks of
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continued-Steelhead-owipu Sea-runTr
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continued-BasinHoodWillametteRogueS
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Table D.13. Washington streams (or
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inland distribution currently decre
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nesting territories in the three st
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However, little is known about the
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Fisher (Martes penncmti)Distributio
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at one time supported marten popula
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each population of these animals is
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species also is found under the bar
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few meters from water after heavy r
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In considering the needs of other s
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Barrows, C. W. 1981. Roost selectio
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Clark, T. W., E. Anderson, C. Dougl
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Hamer, T. E. 1991. Habitat relation
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Mannan, R. W., E. C. Meslow, and H.
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Oakley, A. L., Collins, J. A., Ever
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Solis, D. M. 1983. Summer habitat e
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Washington Natural Heritage Program
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414
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f. Wilderness.g. Livestock grazing.
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I. Monitoring.1. Northern spotted o
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420
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here will reduce some of that habit
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424
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426
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Selection of Forest TypesAt the tim
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eceive as little as 25 inches. Disc
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A. FireThe combination and interact
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Table F.4. Important forest insects
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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D. DiseasesForest diseases in the P
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III. Forest Protection in theWest C
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120 100200 500I~~~~.K446Figure F.4.
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InsectsDiseasesInsects in this subr
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__hardwoods are immune. Shade toler
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pests (Schowalter 1988). Black stai
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tion and initial attack. If manipul
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log and snag density was likely low
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B. Management Effects on StandsMana
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units (underburning or lop/scatter)
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In the higher elevation White Fir a
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growth often increases (Reinhardt a
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50rcc4*0-cC)2M CmZ13010-yearI ,...*
Page 484 and 485:
In the East Cascades subregion fore
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The introduced disease, white pine
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VI. Conclusionsmortality will resul
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Baker, F.A. 1988. The influence of
Page 492 and 493:
Habeck, J.R. 1990. Old-growth ponde
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Perry, D.A., and J.G. Borchers. 199
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Weatherspoon, C.P., and C.N. Skinne
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482
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484
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area, structure, ages, location; ne
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Stand AFigure G.2. A--unthmnned Dou
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figure 0.3. Effects of thinning Dou
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II. Review of Natural Vegetation an
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western hemlock, and sometimes othe
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year intervals (Appendix F). With t
Page 514 and 515:
Live crown ratiobecent)6050IStand A
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Basal area growth continued to incr
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technology probably will allow some
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Stand A. No activities (west side 3
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Stand A. No activities (west side o
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acre, 4 to 12 inches in diameter),
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allow redwood sprout clumps maximum
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KAge 15 years - 511 trees per acre,
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6Stems per acre100 _ Stand A. Natur
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Basal Area(square feetper acre)50 1
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* Opening the canopy in small patch
Page 536 and 537:
Drew, T.J. and J.W. Flewelling. 197
Page 538 and 539:
Miller, R.E.; D.L. Reukema, and R.L
Page 540 and 541:
Tappeiner, J.C., P.M. McDonald, and
Page 542 and 543:
526
Page 544 and 545:
528
Page 546 and 547:
6. Timber supply curve and economic
Page 548 and 549:
scientifically credible biological
Page 550 and 551:
E. Summary of Preliminary Estimates
Page 552 and 553:
II. General Economic Principles for
Page 554 and 555:
practices may be able to show how s
Page 556 and 557:
Economic patterns show the efficien
Page 558 and 559:
The sustainable yield concept that
Page 560 and 561:
A. Previously Estimated Economic Co
Page 562 and 563:
County receipts were estimated to d
Page 564 and 565:
B. Potential Social Costs of Owl Co
Page 566 and 567:
The contrast between the behavior d
Page 568 and 569:
0U1 n1nDTable H.2. Economic depende
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cḻlTable H.4. Economic characteri
Page 572 and 573:
An analysis completed by the State
Page 574 and 575:
V. Preliminary Evaluation of the Ec
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25-° 20/0M 15-a)CLU)0 10-0CL 5 -0)
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25 -- 20-0co/o 15--Da)a0a)10m~ C) 5
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forestlands. The costs of productio
Page 582 and 583:
In Figure H.8, the equilibrium betw
Page 584 and 585:
foregone and the way they will save
Page 586 and 587:
The income created by the purchase
Page 588 and 589:
Two concepts are useful for underst
Page 590 and 591:
y an estimate of the price that wou
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Table H.10. Comparison of timber em
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of the second year. The same assump
Page 596 and 597:
are generally much lower than for c
Page 598 and 599:
582
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studies at University of Washington
Page 602 and 603:
586
Page 604 and 605:
Most significant late successionall
Page 606 and 607:
to evaluate options. Information in
Page 608 and 609:
Q0Table 1.1. Estimated acres and ow
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soTable 1.3. Estimated acres and ow
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01CDarTable 1.5. Size class distrib
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Table 1.8. Frequency distribution o
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Literature CitedThomas, J.W., E.D.
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602
Page 620 and 621:
- The overlap of home ranges among
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Table J.2. Acreage and owl numbers
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continuedDCA Land AcreageIdent. Sta
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Page 630 and 631:
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Table J.9. Acrea ?e and owl numbers
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continued-DCA LandIdent. StatusAcre
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-DCAIdent.LandStatusAcreageNRF Tota
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626
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Experience Includes: Assistant Dire
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Education: B.S. in forestry from Or
Page 648 and 649:
Team SupportCharles Bruce, Oregon D
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continued-1 5-24-91 Other SpeciesSu
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continued-9-16 thru9-20-919-19-91Sp
Page 654 and 655:
Perry, D. 1991. The ecology of coar
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2mandate the achievement of recover
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642
Page 660 and 661:
644
Page 662 and 663:
Aspect - the direction a slope face
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Congressionally classified and desi
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Empirical - derived from direct obs
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Hummocky - a landscape characterize
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Mixed conifer - as used in this doc
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Potential habitat - a stand of tree
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Sensitive species - those species t
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Take -Uunder the Endangered Species
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wild, scenic, or recreational by an
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