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AbstractIntroductionThis appendix discusses methods for estimating or predicting populationtrends. Four approaches are discussed: roadside surveys of territorial birds,demographic analyses, population projections, and two "early warning" methods.Strengths, weaknesses, and requirements of each approach are discussed.The overall monitoring effort could be divided into five programs: 1)roadside surveys, 2) monitoring of activity sites, 3) transmitter studies, 4) otherstudies, and 5) coordination. Computer simulations and analyses of data fromthe Fish and Wildlife Service Breeding Bird Survey both suggest that a minimumof 8 years, and probably at least 10 years, of survey data probably will berequired to obtain reliable estimates of long-term population trends. Delistingtherefore should not be considered until at least 8 years of survey data havebeen collected. Preliminary estimates of sample size requirements suggest thatan adequate sample of the roadside surveys could be obtained with less than 1person-year of effort per state, and that approximately 5 person-years per statemight be an appropriate level of effort for the program to monitor activity sites.These estimates do not include the costs of monitoring remote areas in wildernessesand national parks or continuation of the density studies, althoughthese efforts are regarded as essential if the monitoring effort is to succeed.The program to monitor activity sites probably can be reduced or terminatedafter several years. The estimates in this appendix will need review andrefinement, and are intended mainly as an incentive for further discussion andto provide reassurance that the monitoring program can be carried out at areasonable cost.The sections in the body of the recovery plan on delisting criteria (section III.A.)and research and monitoring (section III.C.6.) identify many questions whichshould be addressed during the next several years. For example, more shouldbe learned about what habitats, and how much of each, should be maintainedin DCAs; proposals for modifying the recovery plan should be formulated andevaluated; and, at some time in the future, consideration should be given todelisting the northern spotted owl. In most of these issues, a need exists either1) to estimate population trends, 2) to compare population trends in differentenvironments, or, 3) to understand the factors that determine populationtrends. For some objectives, primary attention may be given to a single determinantof population trend (e.g., predation rates, productivity), but the overallgoal of the recovery effort is to identify conditions under which owls will have ahigh probability of persisting, and predictions about persistence are difficult tomake when only one factor that determines trends has been studied. Thus,monitoring or predicting population trends is one of the most fundamentalobjectives in the recovery plan.This appendix discusses ways to estimate or predict population trends. Fourgeneral approaches are distinguished (Table A. 1). First, roadside surveysinvolve counts of territorial birds present in an area. An index (e.g., call count)method may be used to estimate trends, or surveyors may attempt to find allterritorial birds in a study area in which case absolute densities and trends ofterritorial birds can be estimated. Second, measurement of demographic ratesinvolves estimating birth, death, and movement rates. Losses (deaths, emigrants)and gains (births, immigrants) are then estimated and compared toinfer how the number of birds changed during the study period. This methodpermits inferences about trends in the total population, including nonterritorialindividuals. Third, population projections involve finding secondary factors,such as habitat parameters, that can be measured and used to predict demo-251
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I 1.2:Sp 6/draftRecovery Plan for t
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List of FiguresTable 4.1 Abbreviate
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Recovery ObjectiveSecretary of the
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Management Rules for Designated Con
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Monitoring and Research ProgramThe
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Chapter IIntroduction1
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"Threatened species" means a specie
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B. The Interagency Scientific Commi
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lished works and many government do
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II.A. Natural History of theNorther
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I- \IzXelT - - -.11 I..., ... I.."
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spring. Territories probably are sm
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Northern goshawks (Accipiter gentil
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also use a variety of nest sites in
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Home Range SizeHome range is define
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Table 2.2. Median amounts of old-gr
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3. Life Historycannot reject the hy
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Dispersal1984, Thomas et al. 1990,
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4. ConclusionOur knowledge of the n
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Ca n a d aEastern Washington Cascad
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Table 2.3. Estimated spotted owl ha
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Table 2.4. Significant threats to t
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Table 2.5. Results of surveys for s
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isolated. In these provinces, small
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centers for 30 to 35 spotted owl te
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Southwest Washington occupies a key
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Distribution of Habitat and Populat
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Province Isolation. The eastern Was
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were in suitable habitat condition.
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Estimated acres of forest landbase:
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owned and contain little suitable h
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Vulnerability to Natural Disturbanc
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Douglas-fir/hardwood types, the lat
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miles from the contiguous populatio
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In comparison, the southern part of
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Sacramento River Canyon now provide
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On January 11, 1980, there was an a
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vation Strategy for the Northern Sp
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transfer of one area to the Grand R
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The BLM Spokane (Washington) Distri
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3. National Park ServiceThe followi
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The results of a consultation are s
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- Since landowners already face cut
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4. Cumulative Effects AssessmentThe
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Assessment, Planning, and Monitorin
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Spotted owl nesting sites and activ
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Coastal Oregon Productivity Enhance
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including wildlife. In other cases,
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Currently, the Yakima Indian Nation
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where timber harvest is limited to
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III.A. Recovery Objective and Delis
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4. The population is unlikely to ne
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Needs of other species should be co
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years. The strategy of managing for
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't0
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Finally, the plan recommends mainta
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A total of 1,181 pairs of owls has
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DKnown owlsin the OregonprovincesKn
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mologists, and representatives of o
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this prey species is an appropriate
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After 100 years residual snags will
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2. Fuelwood Gathering. If allowed,
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The application of prescriptions A,
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owls. (Refer to tables in section I
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PRESCRIPTION D -RETAIN OWLS IN MANA
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126
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DCA Management Plans.The recovery p
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Endangered Species Act) or through
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6. Costs to landowners should be re
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The real or perceived disincentives
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authority of the public body to ent
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* Use the recovery plan's recommend
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140
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Supplemental pair areas - Habitat d
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Numbers of owls currently are estim
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Biological goals and implementation
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ning. Also, several unsurveyed area
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Owl pairsKnown owlsin the province3
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- Initiate long-range planning effo
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Table 3.8. Summary comments on the
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from nonfederal lands are needed to
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Eastern Washington Cascades Provinc
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(Owl pairs140 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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habitat in DCA WD- 16. Approximatel
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Table 3.12. Summary comments on the
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Ttllwrnook/Astoria area. Provide su
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connectivity between key DCAs. This
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ITable 3.14. Summary comments on th
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crest of the Cascade Mountains. The
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ITable 3.16. Summary comments on th
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sites on federal lands (figure 3.21
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Owl pairsL I 350- _ _ . ...........
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DCAs, often combined with adjacent
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Owl pairsLiKnown owlsin the provinc
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nesting and roosting habitat until
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Option 3: Management of clusters: g
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Table 3.21. Summary of acreage and
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Owl pairs -Known owlsin the provinc
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and to within 0.5 miles of the acti
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Spotted owls have been found at 86
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ITable 3.24. Summary comments on th
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their distance from other sites. Ar
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* Recommend population and habitat
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away in some or all of the range. D
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4. What are the population dynamics
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If the monitoring and research prog
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lowlands, eastern Oregon Cascades,
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210
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Stepdown Outline1. Management Tasks
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Table 4.1 Abbreviated Cost TableThe
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continued-TaskPriorityResp. PartyCo
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218
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220
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and the number of invertebrate anim
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Table 5.2. Numbers of other species
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Amphibians and Reptiles: Larch Moun
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228
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230
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Barrows, C. W. 1980. Feeding ecolog
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Clark, R. J., D. G. Smith, and L. H
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Franklin, A. B., J. A. Blakesley, a
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Harestad, A. S., and F. L. Bunnell.
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Lundquist, R. W. and J. M. Mariani.
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O'Halloran, K. 1989. Spotted owl in
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Solis, D. M. 1980. Habitat use by n
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Young, K. D., A. B. Franklin, and J
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248
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Table A.1. General approaches for e
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complete count of the territorial b
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Table A.3. Powera for various desig
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Table A.4. Illustration of a Markov
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Obviously, these statements hold on
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Table A.6. Reliability of trend est
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Demographic AnalysisAs noted earlie
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the estimate (using the simple equa
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however, we know little about the b
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Table A.8. Summary of information n
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predict the power achieved by diffe
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Other studiestached. If dispersing
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impractical at present. We describe
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Conclusionsthe year effect can be i
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280
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282
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284
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owls. Consequently, the issue of wh
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Use of the informationAssessments a
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Recent LiteratureWe might begin by
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Kerms (1989) measured habitat struc
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Hamer (pers. comm.) described 11 ne
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Table B.3. Percent hardwoods in the
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Table B.5. Comparison of habitats u
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Table B.8. Tree density (number of
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and numbers of trees, and percent o
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Under this hypothesis, owl fitness
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suitable habitat for that region (m
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ResultsDiscussionspotted owl habita
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__Discussiondata from 41 sites in t
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Recommendations for Future Research
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314
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Hamer, T. 1988. Home range size of
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318
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320
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Parameter Estimatesfor Individual S
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provided in Table C. 5. Study of th
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Table C.6. Summary of statistics re
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3. ConclusionsThis source of bias i
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330
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Gray Wolf .........................
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formed during the initial meeting t
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provide habitat for the numerous sp
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The ApproachA committee of the Reco
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The List of Threatened and Endanger
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Mammalsoldest trees in a stand. Eig
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ABBFigure D. 1. Distribution of: a)
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KTable D.3. A list of threatened an
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Fishestheir dispersal capabilities
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OlympicNorthcoastalRockyMountainSou
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continued-StatusabState Considered
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continued-SpeciesColumbia sidebandM
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endemic to the Pacific Northwest).
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------continued-SpeciesRhyacophila
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continued-SpeciesFed3tatusa bStateW
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StatusasbOld ForestState Associatio
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Summaryspores (Maser et al. 1978b).
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Biology of Owl Prey, Older Forest A
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Woodrats.-The dusky-footed woodrat
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and are less restrictive under stat
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Stock concept.-The term "stock" was
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Table D.10. List of fish stocks of
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continued-Steelhead-owipu Sea-runTr
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continued-BasinHoodWillametteRogueS
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Table D.13. Washington streams (or
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inland distribution currently decre
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nesting territories in the three st
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However, little is known about the
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Fisher (Martes penncmti)Distributio
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at one time supported marten popula
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each population of these animals is
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species also is found under the bar
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few meters from water after heavy r
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In considering the needs of other s
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Barrows, C. W. 1981. Roost selectio
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Clark, T. W., E. Anderson, C. Dougl
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Hamer, T. E. 1991. Habitat relation
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Mannan, R. W., E. C. Meslow, and H.
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Oakley, A. L., Collins, J. A., Ever
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Solis, D. M. 1983. Summer habitat e
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Washington Natural Heritage Program
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414
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f. Wilderness.g. Livestock grazing.
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I. Monitoring.1. Northern spotted o
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420
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here will reduce some of that habit
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424
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426
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Selection of Forest TypesAt the tim
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eceive as little as 25 inches. Disc
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A. FireThe combination and interact
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Table F.4. Important forest insects
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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D. DiseasesForest diseases in the P
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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continued-Common Name Causal Agent
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III. Forest Protection in theWest C
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120 100200 500I~~~~.K446Figure F.4.
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InsectsDiseasesInsects in this subr
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__hardwoods are immune. Shade toler
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pests (Schowalter 1988). Black stai
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tion and initial attack. If manipul
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log and snag density was likely low
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B. Management Effects on StandsMana
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units (underburning or lop/scatter)
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In the higher elevation White Fir a
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growth often increases (Reinhardt a
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50rcc4*0-cC)2M CmZ13010-yearI ,...*
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In the East Cascades subregion fore
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The introduced disease, white pine
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VI. Conclusionsmortality will resul
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Baker, F.A. 1988. The influence of
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Habeck, J.R. 1990. Old-growth ponde
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Perry, D.A., and J.G. Borchers. 199
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Weatherspoon, C.P., and C.N. Skinne
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482
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484
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area, structure, ages, location; ne
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Stand AFigure G.2. A--unthmnned Dou
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figure 0.3. Effects of thinning Dou
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II. Review of Natural Vegetation an
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western hemlock, and sometimes othe
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year intervals (Appendix F). With t
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Live crown ratiobecent)6050IStand A
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Basal area growth continued to incr
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technology probably will allow some
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Stand A. No activities (west side 3
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Stand A. No activities (west side o
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acre, 4 to 12 inches in diameter),
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allow redwood sprout clumps maximum
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KAge 15 years - 511 trees per acre,
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6Stems per acre100 _ Stand A. Natur
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Basal Area(square feetper acre)50 1
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* Opening the canopy in small patch
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Drew, T.J. and J.W. Flewelling. 197
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Miller, R.E.; D.L. Reukema, and R.L
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Tappeiner, J.C., P.M. McDonald, and
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526
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528
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6. Timber supply curve and economic
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scientifically credible biological
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E. Summary of Preliminary Estimates
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II. General Economic Principles for
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practices may be able to show how s
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Economic patterns show the efficien
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The sustainable yield concept that
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A. Previously Estimated Economic Co
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County receipts were estimated to d
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B. Potential Social Costs of Owl Co
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The contrast between the behavior d
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0U1 n1nDTable H.2. Economic depende
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cḻlTable H.4. Economic characteri
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An analysis completed by the State
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V. Preliminary Evaluation of the Ec
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25-° 20/0M 15-a)CLU)0 10-0CL 5 -0)
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25 -- 20-0co/o 15--Da)a0a)10m~ C) 5
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forestlands. The costs of productio
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In Figure H.8, the equilibrium betw
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foregone and the way they will save
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The income created by the purchase
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Two concepts are useful for underst
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y an estimate of the price that wou
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Table H.10. Comparison of timber em
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of the second year. The same assump
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are generally much lower than for c
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582
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studies at University of Washington
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586
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Most significant late successionall
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to evaluate options. Information in
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Q0Table 1.1. Estimated acres and ow
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soTable 1.3. Estimated acres and ow
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01CDarTable 1.5. Size class distrib
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Table 1.8. Frequency distribution o
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Literature CitedThomas, J.W., E.D.
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602
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- The overlap of home ranges among
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Table J.2. Acreage and owl numbers
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continuedDCA Land AcreageIdent. Sta
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Table J.4. Acreage and owl numbers
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Table J.5. Acreage and owl numbers
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Table J.6. Acreage and owl numbers
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Table J.7. Acreage and owl numbers
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Table J.9. Acrea ?e and owl numbers
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Table J.10. Acreage and owl numbers
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continued-DCA LandIdent. StatusAcre
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-DCAIdent.LandStatusAcreageNRF Tota
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626
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Experience Includes: Assistant Dire
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Education: B.S. in forestry from Or
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Team SupportCharles Bruce, Oregon D
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continued-1 5-24-91 Other SpeciesSu
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continued-9-16 thru9-20-919-19-91Sp
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Perry, D. 1991. The ecology of coar
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2mandate the achievement of recover
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642
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644
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Aspect - the direction a slope face
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Congressionally classified and desi
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Empirical - derived from direct obs
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Hummocky - a landscape characterize
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Mixed conifer - as used in this doc
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Potential habitat - a stand of tree
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Sensitive species - those species t
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Take -Uunder the Endangered Species
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wild, scenic, or recreational by an
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