BBVA in 2012

the measures taken to correct imbalances accumulated on Turkey’s current account balanceand in inflation. In any event, Turkey grew by 2.6% in 2012. The authorities continue to pushthrough measures designed to reduce the economy’s traditional imbalances (such as energydependence). In fact, there are clear signs of improvement in the external deficit.Lastly, the gentle slowdown in which China has been immersed for some time, largely due tothe economic policy measures taken to minimize the risks of overheating, has been heightenedas the foreign setting has weakened. This has sparked fears of a hard landing of the Chineseeconomy. Nevertheless, activity has stabilized in the latter part of 2012 and the authorities havestated that they will continue to use both monetary policy and fiscal stimulus measures to keepChina’s growth at acceptable levels. Even though GDP has slowed to 7.7% in 2012 (from ratesof between 9% and 10% in the three preceding years), there have been signs of an upturn inactivity at the tail end of 2012.Outlook for 2013Measures taken by central banks in the United States and in the Eurozone have brightenedthe outlook, reducing the likelihood of an extreme scenario, but have been unable to preventthe advanced world economies from being mired in adjustment processes and low growth. In2013, the Eurozone is only expected to grow 0.3%, while the United States should grow 1.8% (aslong as the fiscal cliff is avoided, at least partially). Spain, meanwhile, is expected to undergo acontraction similar to that observed in 2012. Emerging markets are expected to be on a firmerfooting. In China, growth is expected to rise a few tenths (to 8.0%), fueled by stimulus policies.The rest of the emerging markets in Asia and in Latin America are expected to see similarlevels of growth. Latin America should grow by 3.5% in 2013. Lastly, the Turkish economy isexpected to quicken in 2013 to 4.4%. Consequently, the world economy is expected to grow3.6%.Brighter outlookfor the globaleconomy thanksto the emergingmarketsGlobal GDP growth and inflation rate in 2012 and perspectives for 2013(Percentage real growth)2012 2013 eGDP Inflation GDP InflationGlobal 3.2 n.a. 3.6 n.a.Euro Zone (0.5) 2.5 0.3 1.6Spain (1.3) 2.4 (1.1) 2.0The United States 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.1Mexico 3.9 4.1 3.1 3.5Latin America (1) 2.8 7.5 3.5 8.1China 7.7 2.6 8.0 3.3Turkey 2.6 8.5 4.4 5.3(1) Includes Mexico, Brasil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru and Chile.Source: BBVA Research.Environment and BBVA positioning37