Chuuk State Census Report - pacificweb.org

Chapter 5. Mortality2000 FSM Census of Chuuk Stateindices) once a model is matched to the population. Given the model life table the crude death rate was estimated to beapproximately 7 per 1,000 individuals.Table 5.1: Average Age-specific Mortality Rates, Chuuk State: 1992 to 1995 and 1996 to 19991992-1995 1996-1999Mid-period Age-specific Mid-period Age-specificAge groups Deaths population mortality rate Deaths population mortality rateTotal 186 52,155 3.6 218 53,378 4.10 to 4 years 39 8,472 4.6 39 7,925 4.95 to 9 years 6 8,075 0.7 4 7,727 0.510 to 14 years 5 7,483 0.6 5 7,546 0.615 to 19 years 3 5,861 0.6 4 6,384 0.520 to 24 years 4 4,231 1.0 6 4,627 1.225 to 29 years 5 3,410 1.3 7 3,709 1.830 to 34 years 6 3,104 2.0 7 3,162 2.135 to 39 years 7 2,789 2.4 8 2,853 2.640 to 44 years 7 2,311 2.9 7 2,508 2.645 to 49 years 11 1,610 6.5 16 1,969 7.950 to 54 years 9 1,018 9.1 16 1,234 12.855 to 59 years 15 1,028 14.1 14 944 14.660 to 64 years 16 931 17.5 24 890 27.065 to 69 years 14 710 20.1 16 710 22.970 to 74 years 17 578 29.8 18 547 32.975 yrs & over 24 543 44.2 31 643 47.4Source: Department of Health Services, FSM; 1994 & 2000 FSM Censuses, unpublished data.Infant and Child Mortality Rates, and Life Expectancy at BirthThe life table is indirectly estimated from child survival information (see United Nations Manual X "IndirectTechniques for Demographic Estimations"). The 2000 FSM Census asked women for the number of children everborn and the number of children surviving. With these data, estimations were made about the level of child mortalityover the past 15 to 20 years. This technique assumes that the survivorship of children from women in different agegroups reflects the child mortality for given periods before the census. This technique provides estimations of infantmortality, child mortality, and life expectancy at birth for different years prior to the census. When we apply thismethod to the past four censuses we can approximate the change in level over the three decades before the census.The method requires the calculation of children who were born to mothers aged 15 to 49 but died before the census.The average age of children born to mothers in each five-year age group provides a convenient way of tracingmortality. As mothers age, so too does the average age of their children. As the proportion dead represents the risk ofdying between birth and the average age of children at the time of the census, by calculating this rate for successiveages of mothers, the method essentially describes the mortality pattern for infants and children.Table 5.2 shows the historical trends of proportion of children surviving by age of mother. As can be seen from thetable, the proportion of children surviving has increased over time. In 1973 only 82 percent of children born to womenaged 45 to 49 years survived to the census day. In 2000, the proportion of children surviving has increased to about 93percent. Thus we can assume that mortality in Chuuk improved between 1973 and 2000.Table 5.2: Number of Children Ever Born (CEB) and Children Surviving (CS) and Proportion Surviving (PS) by Age Group of Mother, Chuuk State: 1973 to 20001973 1980 1989 1994 2000Age groups CEB CS PS (%) CEB CS PS (%) CEB CS PS(%) CEB CS PS (%) CEB CS PS(%)15 to 19 years 282 262 92.9 292 269 92.1 190 182 95.8 246 239 97.2 252 244 96.820 to 24 years 1,990 1,828 91.9 1,803 1,692 93.8 1,504 1,455 96.7 1,441 1,360 94.4 1,431 1,362 95.225 to 29 years 3,292 2,993 90.9 3,750 3,510 93.6 3,666 3,505 95.6 3,487 3,283 94.1 3,222 3,065 95.130 to 34 years 3,380 3,055 90.4 4,800 4,496 93.7 5,644 5,398 95.6 5,881 5,484 93.2 4,826 4,578 94.935 to 39 years 5,124 4,477 87.4 3,955 3,642 92.1 6,618 6,275 94.8 7,217 6,772 93.8 6,447 6,089 94.440 to 44 years 4,065 3,396 83.5 4,345 3,989 91.8 5,340 4,982 93.3 7,516 6,992 93.0 7,209 6,786 94.145 to 49 years 3,366 2,763 82.1 3,958 3,619 91.4 3,539 3,299 93.2 5,704 5,296 92.8 6,868 6,356 92.5Source: 1973 TTPI Census, Table T25 & T26; 1980 TTPI Census, Table T19; 1989 Chuuk Census; 1994 & 2000 FSM Censuses, Table P15.Data on children ever born and children surviving classified by age of mother can be used to determine probabilities ofsurviving to specific ages. These probabilities of surviving can then be fitted to a model life table, which allows us tocalculate the approximate infant mortality rates and the corresponding life expectancy at birth for different timeperiods. The resulting mortality indices for recent censuses are summarized in Tables 5.3. The results show a declinein mortality rates over the 20 years before the census. Data for women aged 15 to 19 years were ignored because thenumbers were small and child mortality for young mothers is often selectively high. Mothers in the final three age44 Chuuk Branch Statistics Office, Division of Statistics, FSM Department of Economic Affairs