An Econometric Analysis of Consumer Sentiment and ... - NABE

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7 IHS Global Insight Published 7/1/11
Consumer Confidence RegressionSample 1994.01 - 2010.12Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio Prob.Intercept -0.338 0.576 -0.587 0.558Relative Price of Gasoline -0.140 0.034 -4.156 0.000SP500 Composite Growth Rate 0.699 0.133 5.263 0.000Initial Claim per Capita -0.293 0.081 -3.619 0.000Unemployment Rate -0.118 0.061 -1.920 0.057Gasoline Price Trigger -0.038 0.019 -1.992 0.048DJIA Value Trigger 0.025 0.016 1.510 0.1332001 Recession 0.030 0.029 1.039 0.300Great Recession -0.064 0.028 -2.316 0.022Previous Month's Consumer Sentiment 0.706 0.052 13.603 0.000Jan. Seasonal -0.018 0.023 -0.805 0.422Feb. Seasonal -0.064 0.023 -2.792 0.006Mar. Seasonal -0.007 0.023 -0.325 0.746Apr. Seasonal 0.031 0.023 1.338 0.183May Seasonal 0.031 0.023 1.314 0.191Jun. Seasonal 0.000 0.024 -0.018 0.985Jul. Seasonal 0.005 0.023 0.210 0.834Aug. Seasonal 0.010 0.023 0.424 0.672Sep. Seasonal -0.022 0.023 -0.940 0.349Oct. Seasonal -0.064 0.023 -2.770 0.006Nov. Seasonal 0.009 0.023 0.385 0.701R-squared 0.965Adjusted R-squared 0.961Durbin-Watson stat 1.790S.E. of regression 0.066F-statistic 253.707Prob(F-statistic) 0.0008 IHS Global Insight Published 7/1/11
Page 1 and 2: An Econometric Analysis ofConsumer
Page 3 and 4: The relatively new and developing f
Page 5 and 6: Our expectations on the coefficient
Page 7: Consumer Sentiment RegressionSample
Page 11 and 12: Percentage ChangeConsumer Sentiment
Page 13: previous three downturns. It was dr

An Econometric Analysis of Consumer Sentiment and ... - NABE

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