An Econometric Analysis of Consumer Sentiment and ... - NABE

variable estimated coefficients were the expected sign and statistically significant at the 5% level. The UnemploymentRate coefficient was not statistically significant in consumer sentiment regression, but was negative withapproximately 5% level of significance in the consumer confidence regression.The Gasoline Price Trigger and DJIA Value Trigger coefficients were the expected sign and statistically significant atthe 20–25% level range for the consumer sentiment regression and in the 5–14% level range for the consumerconfidence regression. The absolute values of the t-ratios on the triggers were above one, thus contributing to thesignificance of the regression (F-statistic).The 2001 recession dummy coefficient was greater than the Great Recession dummy coefficient in each of theregressions. However, the absolute value of the t-ratio on the 2001 recession coefficient was below one in theconsumer sentiment regression.5 IHS Global Insight Published 7/1/11