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46aAppendix Dthat <strong>the</strong> confidence that can reasonably be placed in<strong>the</strong> ER estimates are low due <strong>to</strong> low levels of Hispanicconcentration in <strong>the</strong> precincts, which impairs <strong>the</strong> ERanalysis. (Defs.’ Ex. 51, at 10.) He showed that <strong>the</strong>re is a95% chance that <strong>the</strong> actual proportion of Hispanic voterscasting <strong>the</strong>ir votes for Rivera in 2008 was somewherebetween 38.7 and 100%, and for Medina is was between27.3 and 100%. (Id. at 11.) Dr. Alford concluded that “clearly<strong>the</strong> confidence interval for both estimates includes levelsfar <strong>to</strong>o low <strong>to</strong> be considered cohesive minority voting.” (Id.)Dr. Engstrom also noted that <strong>the</strong> confidence intervalsare wide, and stated that this result should be expectedgiven <strong>the</strong> data. He concurred with Dr. Alford that <strong>the</strong> wideconfidence intervals are due <strong>to</strong> application of ER <strong>to</strong> a se<strong>to</strong>f data points that don’t lend <strong>the</strong>mselves <strong>to</strong> ER analysis.(Trial Tr. vol. 1, 2, Feb. 18.) Dr. Engstrom pointed <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>ER scatter plots, on which <strong>the</strong> data points are all clusteredin <strong>the</strong> lower left corner. (See PL’s Ex. 27.) According <strong>to</strong>Dr. Engstrom, for a more precise ER analysis one wouldneed data points that move fur<strong>the</strong>r out <strong>to</strong>wards a 100%Hispanic voter precinct-unlike <strong>the</strong> precincts analyzed,which all have SSRV rates of less than 35%. Dr. Engstromalso responded that <strong>the</strong> point estimate is <strong>the</strong> best singleestimate, and <strong>the</strong> numbers closest <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> best estimatewould be more likely than <strong>the</strong> numbers at <strong>the</strong> end of <strong>the</strong>confidence interval.Dr. Engstrom also applied confidence intervals <strong>to</strong>his EI calculations. The confidence intervals producedby <strong>the</strong> EI analysis were tight around <strong>the</strong> point estimate,indicating that <strong>the</strong> analysis was efficient and <strong>the</strong>re was

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