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45aAppendix Destimates to real limits, in that it does not allow estimatesto go above 100 or below zero. (Id. at 210-11.)Dr. Engstrom’s application of ER and EI to SSRVdata resulted in the following outcomes:Election2008-Mayor2008-Place 32005-Place 5% of Hispanic VotersRezaER 87.6EI 63.6RiveraER 70.6EI 99.5MedinaER 130.2EI 99.4(Pl.’s Ex. 26.) Dr. Engstrom’s estimates applying ERand EI both show that the Hispanic voters preferredthe Hispanic candidate, demonstrating Hispanic votercohesion.b. Application of Confidence IntervalsDr. Alford agreed generally with Dr. Engstrom’sfigures, but also imposed 95% confidence intervals onthe ER results. (Defs.’ Ex. 51, at 10-11.) He argued
46aAppendix Dthat the confidence that can reasonably be placed inthe ER estimates are low due to low levels of Hispanicconcentration in the precincts, which impairs the ERanalysis. (Defs.’ Ex. 51, at 10.) He showed that there is a95% chance that the actual proportion of Hispanic voterscasting their votes for Rivera in 2008 was somewherebetween 38.7 and 100%, and for Medina is was between27.3 and 100%. (Id. at 11.) Dr. Alford concluded that “clearlythe confidence interval for both estimates includes levelsfar too low to be considered cohesive minority voting.” (Id.)Dr. Engstrom also noted that the confidence intervalsare wide, and stated that this result should be expectedgiven the data. He concurred with Dr. Alford that the wideconfidence intervals are due to application of ER to a setof data points that don’t lend themselves to ER analysis.(Trial Tr. vol. 1, 2, Feb. 18.) Dr. Engstrom pointed to theER scatter plots, on which the data points are all clusteredin the lower left corner. (See PL’s Ex. 27.) According toDr. Engstrom, for a more precise ER analysis one wouldneed data points that move further out towards a 100%Hispanic voter precinct-unlike the precincts analyzed,which all have SSRV rates of less than 35%. Dr. Engstromalso responded that the point estimate is the best singleestimate, and the numbers closest to the best estimatewould be more likely than the numbers at the end of theconfidence interval.Dr. Engstrom also applied confidence intervals tohis EI calculations. The confidence intervals producedby the EI analysis were tight around the point estimate,indicating that the analysis was efficient and there was
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iiPARTIES TO THE PROCEEDINGAND RULE
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ivTable of ContentsPageREASONS FOR
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xCited AuthoritiesStatutes and Othe
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1PETITION FOR A WRIT OF CERTIORARIP
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3The Court should grant the petitio
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5has “an obligation to explain to
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7because the City has substantially
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9City of IrvingPopulation, Voting A
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11The district court granted summar
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13I. This Petition Presents An Impo
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15First, the issue has increasingly
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17wards had far more eligible voter
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19or practice, they cannot claim to
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21This case—in which the choice b
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23two, five, or ten, or one-half.
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25In Chen, the Fifth Circuit reache
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27Importantly, then, the Fourteenth
Page 43 and 44: 30Tennessee voters’ dilution chal
Page 45 and 46: 32Under the Plan, as noted above, D
Page 47 and 48: 34slightly larger than 9.9%—prese
Page 49 and 50: 1aAppendix AAPPENDIX
Page 51 and 52: 2aAppendix APER CURIAM: *This case
Page 53 and 54: 4aAPPENDIX B — Appendix MEMORANDU
Page 55 and 56: 6aAppendix Bpopulation numbers are
Page 57 and 58: 8aAppendix Bwhich total population
Page 59 and 60: 10aAppendix Bthe court does acknowl
Page 61 and 62: 12aAppendix CON PETITION FOR REHEAR
Page 63 and 64: 14aAppendix DIrving’s at-large el
Page 65 and 66: 16aAppendix Dother things, the at-l
Page 67 and 68: 18aAppendix DThornburg v. Gingles,
Page 69 and 70: 20aAppendix Dfailed to establish a
Page 71 and 72: 22aAppendix Dcomplying with the Gin
Page 73 and 74: 24aAppendix Done-hundred percent co
Page 75 and 76: 26aAppendix Dhis opinion that would
Page 77 and 78: 28aAppendix Dto estimate the 2008 H
Page 79 and 80: 30aAppendix Dvotes of Hispanics hav
Page 81 and 82: 32aAppendix Daverage household size
Page 83 and 84: 34aAppendix DDr. Rives attempts to
Page 85 and 86: 36aAppendix Dwith sampling error ac
Page 87 and 88: 38aAppendix DIn his expert report,
Page 89 and 90: 40aAppendix DAs Dr. Rives pointed o
Page 91 and 92: 42aAppendix DC. Gingles II & III-Ra
Page 93: 44aAppendix Dthis methodology canno
Page 97 and 98: 48aAppendix Dto Dr. Alford’s hypo
Page 99 and 100: 50aAppendix DD. Totality of the Cir
Page 101 and 102: 52aAppendix DThe Court concludes th
Page 103 and 104: 54aAppendix DNotably, James Dickens
Page 105 and 106: 56aAppendix D1231, 1245-46, 173 L.E
Page 107 and 108: 58aAppendix D2. Proof of Changed De
Page 109 and 110: 60aAppendix DPlaintiff has not empl
Page 111 and 112: 62aAppendix Dthe way in which the v
Page 113 and 114: 64aAppendix Dthe requirement that t
Page 115 and 116: 66aAPPENDIX E — RELEVANT Appendix
Page 117: 68aAppendix Eof insurrection or reb
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