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34aAppendix DDr. Rives attempts to refute Mr. Ely’s theory byarguing without support that the numbers are merely“fortuitous,” and that considerations such as migration,naturalization, mortality, and immigration dictate thatthe aging of Hispanic children cannot be counted uponto raise the rate of citizenship among Hispanic adults.(Trial Tr. vol. 1, 45, Feb. 19; Defs.’ Ex. 5, at 6.) While otherdemographic changes are undoubtedly at play, the Courtfinds Mr. Ely’s explanations credible, and finds that theincrease in HCVAP reflected in the estimates for Mr. Ely’svarious illustrative districts may plausibly be accountedfor by factors other than significant growth in the totalpopulation-including the aging of Hispanic citizens under18 years of age.f. City-wide Growth RatesDr. Rives also argues on a more general level thatapplying city-wide growth rates to illustrative districts isnot a reasonable assumption. (Defs.’ Ex. 4, at 10.) Growthrates for local areas change over time. (Id.) Mr. Ely agreesthat population growth across the City’s districts hasprobably not been uniform, but states that he relies onthis assumption because there’s no evidence available asto how growth in population has varied across districts.In his opinion, it is reasonable to believe that the citywidedemographic changes relating to the Hispanic andnon-Hispanic population were probably shared in by thearea that has the most significant Hispanic population.(Trial Tr. vol. 1, 25, Feb. 20.) The Court concludes thatthe assumptions made by Mr. Ely are reasonable, to theextent that growth in HCVAP is likely to be equal to (or