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29aAppendix DOrder 32.) Dr. Rives treated this geocoded SSRVinformation as an indicator of HCVAP, and observedthat the SSRV share of total registered voters was 35.6%within Mr. Ely’s illustrative district, “quite close to theHispanic share of total CVAP for the proposed districtin 2000, before plaintiff’s expert extrapolated the 2000CVAP to 2008 at citywide growth rates.” (Defs.’ Ex. 4,at 14.) Dr. Rives appears to suggest that the 2008 SSRVnumbers indicate little to no growth in HCVAP in theillustrative district between 2000-2008.Mr. Ely responded by creating an illustrative districtbased on Dr. Rives’ geocoded SSRV data that includedadditional areas of high SSRV concentration. (PL’s Ex. 5,at 2.) He again used BG citizenship rates and projectedforward to arrive at a 2008 estimate, as in his earlierillustrative districts. (Id.) The estimated HCVAP for theSSRV based district is 50.5%, and the SSRV share oftotal registered voters is 40.9%. (Id.) Mr. Ely also notedthat SSRV in Irving had nearly doubled between the 2005and 2008 elections (497 and 957, respectively), while totalvoters increased by a proportionately more moderateamount (9,014 and 9,823, respectively). (Pl.’s Ex 1, at 5.)The Fifth Circuit has stated that without a strictshowing of probativeness, Spanish surname data aredisfavored, and Census data based upon self-identificationprovide the proper basis for analyzing claims that theHispanic ethnicity, except in groups with significant Filipinopopulations. (PL’s Ex. 1, at 4.) Irving has a minimal Filipinopopulation, therefore he considers Spanish surname results tobe generally reliable.