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27aAppendix Dlevel method and the BG level method, he believes that thetract level method has higher statistical reliability. (PL’sEx. 1, at 7.) The tract level method estimates citizenshiprates for the block level by applying data from the tractlevel to block level. (Trial Tr. vol. 1, 72-73, Feb. 17.) Dr.Rives, however, criticized the tract level method on thegrounds that it relies on the assumption that the blockswithin the tract are homogenous with respect to the ratesof citizenship. In his opinion, heavily Hispanic areas ofthe City tend to have lower rates of citizenship. (Defs.’Ex. 4, at 12-13.)Dr. Rives advocated the application of the BG levelmethod. He asserted that because BGs are smaller thantracts, they are more likely to emulate the demographicfeatures of the blocks they contain. Also, the BG levelmethod may be more precise because BGs are smaller,and it is therefore easier to closely approximate the actualarea included in the illustrative district. However, Mr. Elycritiqued the BG level method because in formulating aspecial tabulation for Hispanic citizenship rates at theBG level, the Census Bureau relies on two independentlyrounded numbers in order to preserve participantconfidentiality, thus decreasing accuracy. (PL’s Ex. 4, at 1.)Also, the smaller sampling size at the BG level increasesthe likelihood of sampling error. (Id. at 2.)In his initial expert report, Mr. Ely constructedillustrative districts using citizenship information from thetract level. (PL’s Ex. 1, at 7.) Applying this methodologyto 2006 ACS data, Mr. Ely drew the original IllustrativeDistrict (July 7, 2008). (PL’s Ex. 1 and 3.) As discussedabove, Mr. Ely then extrapolated growth rates in order
28aAppendix Dto estimate the 2008 Hispanic CVAP in the IllustrativeDistrict: 50.1%. (Id.; PL’s Pretrial Br. 12.) In his expertreport, Dr. Rives criticized Mr. Ely’s use of Census tractcitizenship data rather than BG data from a specialtabulation. He demonstrated that by utilizing the BGlevel method rather than the tract level method, the2008 HCVAP in the original Illustrative District fell to48.2%. In response to Dr. Rives’ report, Mr. Ely used thespecial tabulation BG data to estimate HCVAP in threeadditional illustrative districts. Mr. Ely was able to createthe alternative (CVAP based) Illustrative District andIllustrative Districts A and B, with estimated HCVAPin 2008 of 53.1%, 58.0%, and 56.5%, respectively. (PL’sEx. 5, 8.)d. Spanish Surname Registered VotersDr. Rives obtained voter registration data for Irvingfrom the Dallas County Elections Department, based onindividual voter registration records as of May 1, 2008.Using that data, Dr. Rives then “geocoded” Spanishsurname registered voters (“SSRV”) to their Censusblock. (Defs.’ Ex. 4, at 14; Ex. 35; Ex. 47.) The Spanishsurname may be used as a proxy for Hispanic ethnicitywhen self-identification is not practical. 7 (Joint Pretrial7. The parties agree that experts commonly use Spanishsurname databases as the foundation for analysis in voting rightslitigations, as well as to provide guidance to jurisdictions in theredistricting process. (Joint Pretrial Order 32.) The CensusBureau developed for use in the 1980 Census a Spanish surnamelist and rules for matching. (Id.). Mr. Ely testified that in hisopinion, Spanish surname analysis tends to slightly underestimate
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iiPARTIES TO THE PROCEEDINGAND RULE
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ivTable of ContentsPageREASONS FOR
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xCited AuthoritiesStatutes and Othe
Page 14 and 15:
1PETITION FOR A WRIT OF CERTIORARIP
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3The Court should grant the petitio
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5has “an obligation to explain to
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7because the City has substantially
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9City of IrvingPopulation, Voting A
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11The district court granted summar
Page 26 and 27: 13I. This Petition Presents An Impo
Page 28 and 29: 15First, the issue has increasingly
Page 30 and 31: 17wards had far more eligible voter
Page 32 and 33: 19or practice, they cannot claim to
Page 34 and 35: 21This case—in which the choice b
Page 36 and 37: 23two, five, or ten, or one-half.
Page 38 and 39: 25In Chen, the Fifth Circuit reache
Page 40: 27Importantly, then, the Fourteenth
Page 43 and 44: 30Tennessee voters’ dilution chal
Page 45 and 46: 32Under the Plan, as noted above, D
Page 47 and 48: 34slightly larger than 9.9%—prese
Page 49 and 50: 1aAppendix AAPPENDIX
Page 51 and 52: 2aAppendix APER CURIAM: *This case
Page 53 and 54: 4aAPPENDIX B — Appendix MEMORANDU
Page 55 and 56: 6aAppendix Bpopulation numbers are
Page 57 and 58: 8aAppendix Bwhich total population
Page 59 and 60: 10aAppendix Bthe court does acknowl
Page 61 and 62: 12aAppendix CON PETITION FOR REHEAR
Page 63 and 64: 14aAppendix DIrving’s at-large el
Page 65 and 66: 16aAppendix Dother things, the at-l
Page 67 and 68: 18aAppendix DThornburg v. Gingles,
Page 69 and 70: 20aAppendix Dfailed to establish a
Page 71 and 72: 22aAppendix Dcomplying with the Gin
Page 73 and 74: 24aAppendix Done-hundred percent co
Page 75: 26aAppendix Dhis opinion that would
Page 79 and 80: 30aAppendix Dvotes of Hispanics hav
Page 81 and 82: 32aAppendix Daverage household size
Page 83 and 84: 34aAppendix DDr. Rives attempts to
Page 85 and 86: 36aAppendix Dwith sampling error ac
Page 87 and 88: 38aAppendix DIn his expert report,
Page 89 and 90: 40aAppendix DAs Dr. Rives pointed o
Page 91 and 92: 42aAppendix DC. Gingles II & III-Ra
Page 93 and 94: 44aAppendix Dthis methodology canno
Page 95 and 96: 46aAppendix Dthat the confidence th
Page 97 and 98: 48aAppendix Dto Dr. Alford’s hypo
Page 99 and 100: 50aAppendix DD. Totality of the Cir
Page 101 and 102: 52aAppendix DThe Court concludes th
Page 103 and 104: 54aAppendix DNotably, James Dickens
Page 105 and 106: 56aAppendix D1231, 1245-46, 173 L.E
Page 107 and 108: 58aAppendix D2. Proof of Changed De
Page 109 and 110: 60aAppendix DPlaintiff has not empl
Page 111 and 112: 62aAppendix Dthe way in which the v
Page 113 and 114: 64aAppendix Dthe requirement that t
Page 115 and 116: 66aAPPENDIX E — RELEVANT Appendix
Page 117: 68aAppendix Eof insurrection or reb
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