petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to grant ... - Election Law Blog
petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to grant ... - Election Law Blog petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to grant ... - Election Law Blog
59aAppendix DTo the extent that ACS data may be regarded asdistinguishable from presumptively accurate Censusfigures, ACS data meets the standard to overcomethe prior decennial Census. ACS sampling errorsare transparent; they may be accounted for using themargins of error published by the ACS and the use ofconfidence intervals. The Court concludes that ACS datais thoroughly documented, has a high degree of accuracy,and is clear, cogent and convincing enough to overcomethe Valdespino threshold.b. Estimate Derived from Census and ACS DataDefendants have clearly established, and Plaintiffessentially does not dispute, that according to the 2000Census and the 2006 ACS, Plaintiff cannot meet his burdenof showing a majority HCVAP illustrative district. (TrialTr. vol. 1, 117, Feb. 17.) Therefore, Plaintiff used Censusand ACS figures to extrapolate HCVAP percentages for2008. The Court has found Mr. Ely’s methodology forestimating 2008 numbers to be reliable: he thoroughlydocumented and explained his process, he comportedwith accepted statistical principles, and his estimateshave been corroborated by the 2007 ACS numbers andthe 2005-2007 ACS 3-year averages. The ACS figuresdemonstrate a clear, persistent trend in the growth ofHCVAP percentages in Irving that is unlikely to change inthe 2008 ACS data. The 2008 estimates have been furthercorroborated by the PUMS data regarding the number ofHispanic children ages 10-17 and by the SSRV analysis.
60aAppendix DPlaintiff has not employed an ad hoc procedure toconstruct the illustrative districts. See Kirkpatrick v.Preisler, 394 U.S. 526, 535, 89 S.Ct. 1225, 22 L.Ed.2d 519(1969) (post-Census population shifts may be consideredif they are “thoroughly documented and applied throughthe state in a systematic, not an ad hoc, manner”). Rather,Plaintiff determined that the 2000 Census figures nolonger apply, according to 2006 ACS data that showedrapid growth in Hispanic CVAP and a concurrent fall innon-Hispanic CVAP. Plaintiff then implemented a clearand direct way of estimating Hispanic CVAP and non-Hispanic CVAP in illustrative districts-applying city-widegrowth rates reflected in the ACS to the districts. Thus,the Court concludes that Plaintiff’s methodology was notad hoc, and the estimated HCVAP numbers for 2008 areclear, cogent, and convincing to override the presumptivecorrectness of the prior Census.3. CompactnessGingles requires that the proposed district advancedby the plaintiffs be geographically compact. See Shawv. Hunt, 517 U.S. 899, 916, 116 S.Ct. 1894, 135 L.Ed.2d207 (1996) (finding no Section 2 violation where “no onelooking at [that district] could reasonably suggest that thedistrict contains a ‘geographically compact’ population ofany race”). The Supreme Court has “refused to considera noncompact district as a possible remedy for a [Section2] violation.” LULAC, 548 U.S. at 431, 126 S.Ct. 2594(citing Shaw, 517 U.S. at 916, 116 S.Ct. 1894). The inquiryinto compactness should consider “traditional districtingprinciples such as maintaining communities of interestand traditional boundaries.” Id. (internal quotes omitted).
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59aAppendix DTo <strong>the</strong> extent that ACS data may be regarded asdistinguishable from presumptively accurate Censusfigures, ACS data meets <strong>the</strong> standard <strong>to</strong> overcome<strong>the</strong> prior decennial Census. ACS sampling errorsare transparent; <strong>the</strong>y may be accounted for using <strong>the</strong>margins of error published by <strong>the</strong> ACS and <strong>the</strong> use ofconfidence intervals. The <strong>Court</strong> concludes that ACS datais thoroughly documented, has a high degree of accuracy,and is clear, cogent and convincing enough <strong>to</strong> overcome<strong>the</strong> Valdespino threshold.b. Estimate Derived from Census and ACS DataDefendants have clearly established, and Plaintiffessentially does not dispute, that according <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> 2000Census and <strong>the</strong> 2006 ACS, Plaintiff cannot meet his burdenof showing a majority HCVAP illustrative district. (TrialTr. vol. 1, 117, Feb. 17.) Therefore, Plaintiff used Censusand ACS figures <strong>to</strong> extrapolate HCVAP percentages for2008. The <strong>Court</strong> has found Mr. Ely’s methodology forestimating 2008 numbers <strong>to</strong> be reliable: he thoroughlydocumented and explained his process, he comportedwith accepted statistical principles, and his estimateshave been corroborated by <strong>the</strong> 2007 ACS numbers and<strong>the</strong> 2005-2007 ACS 3-year averages. The ACS figuresdemonstrate a clear, persistent trend in <strong>the</strong> growth ofHCVAP percentages in Irving that is unlikely <strong>to</strong> change in<strong>the</strong> 2008 ACS data. The 2008 estimates have been fur<strong>the</strong>rcorroborated by <strong>the</strong> PUMS data regarding <strong>the</strong> number ofHispanic children ages 10-17 and by <strong>the</strong> SSRV analysis.
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