Horel & Cornejo-Garrido 1986 - Departamento de Geofísica ...

Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El NiñoI FORO DE PERSPECTIVAS CLIMÁTICAS PARA SUDAMÉRICAGuayaquil - Ecuador, 01 al 04 de Octubre 2012Seminario - Taller Clima de Sud AméricaVariabilidad Climática II: Imapactos regionales de ENSORelator: Dr. René D. Garreaudwww.dgf.uchile.cl/reneDepartamento de GeofísicaUniversidad de Chile

ENSO impacts on South America

Full references in Garreaud et al. 2009

ENSO-related regional impacts• Northern South America• Coastal Ecuador and Perú• Central Andes• Subtropical SA

ClimoENSODavid B. Enfield , Sang-Ki Lee , Chunzai WangProgress In Oceanography Volume 70, Issues 2?4 2006 346 - 365

Horel & Cornejo-Garrido 1986Summer-Fall Precip:Average ∼ 0EN ∼ 1000 – 4000 mm!Where? How come?

Horel & Cornejo-Garrido 1986

SYNOPTIC AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF THE RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN PERUVIAN COASTDURING THE 1997-8 EL NIñO EVENTMichael W. Douglas 1 , Malaquias Peña 2 , Norma Ordinola 3 , Luis Flores 3 , Joshua Boustead 4 , and Jose Luis Santos 5 .“the influx of lower-tropospheric air from the Pacific Ocean is critical in producing theheavy rains during the El Niño period. This is in contrast to a relatively widely-heldbelief in the region that the moisture source is from the Amazon Basin”

Central Andes Rainfall* Closely tied to moisture availability* Wind aloft controls the transport of moisture towards the Altiplano

Central Andes (Altiplano Region)Interannual Variability

Interannual Variability

ClimoChoco JetEN-LN

Rutllant and Fuenzalida 1991: Synoptic explanation of increased CCh precipitationduring EN years: blocking anticyclone shifts northward storm track and embedded frontalsystemsBackground

Every EN/LN is different and it is superimposed on a slightlydifferent background state. That produce changes in theteleconnection patterns even in current climate…

ENSO-PDO interference

Non-ENSO-related regional impacts• AAO impacts on southern SA•Amazon basin• NE Brazil

Annual mean Precip/SAT regressed uponindex of large-scale modes (50 years of data)

Relationship between the southern annular mode and southernhemisphere atmospheric systemsMichelle Simões Reboita; Tércio Ambrizzi; Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha

Silvestri and Vera 2005

Quintana & Aceituno 20120,400,200,00-0,2025 30 35 40 45 50 55SOIAAOSEP-AAO-0,40-0,60-0,80Rojas et al. 2013

Rainfall anomaliesSST anomalies+−++SEB+−−−WAT+++−−−

Rainfall NE Brazil related totropical Atlantic dipole

Un caso que trajo atención internacional:La sequia Amazónica del 2005

Condiciones de gran escala durante 4 sequias en AmazoníaSSTZ850

Intraseasonal variability in SouthAmerica and MJO impacts

The Madden Julian Oscillation: Leading mode in the westerntropical Pacific at intraseasonal timescales (30-60 days)

Observación y predicción de la OMJÍndices diarios de la OMJ del Centro dePredicción Climática (CPC) del Servicio MeteorológicoNacional (NWS) de la NOAA (EE.UU.)Predicciones experimentales de OMJ del Laboratorio deInvestigación del Sistema Terrestre (Earth SystemResearch Laboratory) de la NOAAhttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/index.primjo.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/mjo/Pronósticos de variabilidad tropical(OMJ y ondas ecuatoriales)de la Oficina Australiana de Meteorología(Australian Bureau of Meteorology)http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/Pronósticos de la OMJ de Paul Roundy,Universidad Estatal de Nueva York en Albany(State University of New York, SUNY, Albany)http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ roundy/waves/Pronósticos de la OMJ de Barney Lovey Adrian Matthews, Universidad de East Angliahttp://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/ mjo_forecast.html

The SESA dipole

Vertically integrated water vapor flux& precipitation for + and - phase