Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr
Climate impacts on environmental systemsBox 3.1Making the right observationsThe very large heat capacity of the oceans means that temperature changes must be measured with greatprecision and with high resolution, both of which have been difficult to achieve. The majority of the historicalglobal temperature changes come from Expendable Bathythermographs (XBTs) and Conductivity/Temperature/Depth (CTD) shipboard measurements. However, spatial and temporal sparseness of data, regional and temporalbiases in observations, and changing proportions of data from different instrument types, established the needfor a homogeneous global observing system. This need led to the implementation of the international array ofArgo profiling floats. Argo is a global array of 3 000 free-drifting profiling floats that measure the temperature andsalinity of the upper 2 000 m of the ocean (see Map 3.1). Temperature, salinity and velocity of the upper oceanare continuously monitored, and all data is made publicly available within hours after collection. One of Argo'smost important contributions is a major improvement in estimates of OHC (von Schuckmann and Le Traon, 2011;Levitus et al., 2012).The main challenge for Argo is to maintain the global array for the next decades, which requires internationalcommitments to provide and deploy about 800 to 900 floats per year.Additional floats would be needed for more uniform sampling and for expanded coverage of polar regions,marginal seas and the deep ocean below 2 000 m depth.In 2008, the project Euro-Argo started developing a European infrastructure for Argo to the level where Europeanpartners have the capacity to support approximately one quarter of the global array, and to provide an additional50 floats per year for enhanced coverage in the European and marginal seas. The Euro-Argo project includesamong others Germany, France and the United Kingdom, which are the major European contributors to Argo.In 2012, the collaboration around Euro-Argo was formalised in a Research Infrastructure Consortium whichenables Europe to build and sustain its contribution to the global array while providing enhanced coverage in theNorth‐east Atlantic, Mediterranean and Black Seas.Map 3.1 Location of Argo floats in 201260 °N30 °N0 °30 °S60 °S60 °E 120 °E 180 ° 120 °W 60 °W 0 °Source: See http://www.argo.ucsd.edu and http://www.euro-argo.eu/About-us/The-Research-Infrastructure.94 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on environmental systems3.1.4 Sea surface temperatureRelevanceSea surface temperature (SST) is relevant formonitoring of climate change because it reflectsregional changes in ocean temperature, whereasOHC is estimated globally. SST is closely linked toone of the strongest drivers of climate in westernEurope, the ocean circulation that is known asAtlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)or alternatively as the great conveyor belt. Thiscirculation carries warm upper waters north in theGulf Stream and returns cold deep waters south. Itis widely accepted that the MOC is an importantdriver of low-frequency variations in sea surfacetemperature on the time scale of several decades(Griffies, 1997). It is also widely accepted that theNAO‐index (a proxy of atmospheric variability)plays a key role in forcing variations in MOC aswell as the northward extent of the Gulf Stream(Frankignoul and Kestenare, 2005; de Coëtlogonet al., 2006).The MOC sensitivity to greenhouse warmingremains a subject of much scientific debate, largelybecause its large natural variability and the scarcityof observations makes trend detection very difficult(Curry, 2005; Cunningham et al., 2007; Matei et al.,2012).One of the most visible ramifications of increasedtemperature in the ocean is the reduced areaof sea ice coverage in the Arctic polar region(see Section 2.3.6). There is an accumulating body ofevidence suggesting that many marine ecosystemsare also sensitive to changes in SST. For example, thespread of oxygen-free areas (so called dead zones)in the Baltic Sea in the past 1 000 years was stronglylinked to above-average SST (Kabel et al., 2012).Past trendsSST is increasing globally and in Europe's seas(Frankignoul and Kestenare, 2005) but the rate ofwarming varies across European seas (Figure 3.3and Map 3.2). Observed changes in SST of the globalocean and the regional seas of Europe are consistentwith the changes in atmospheric temperature(Levitus, 2000; Rayner et al., 2006).ProjectionsGlobal SST is projected to rise more slowly thanatmospheric temperature. Initially ocean warmingwill be largest in the upper 100 m of the ocean, butwarming will continue to penetrate in the deepocean during the 21st century (Watterson, 2003;Stouffer, 2004; IPCC, 2007). It is not possible toproject changes in SST or the different geographicregions across Europe because the spatial resolutionof the coupled ocean-climate models is not highenough to evaluate trends on the scale of individualEuropean regional seas.Key messages: 3.1.4 Sea surface temperature• Sea surface temperature in European seas is increasing more rapidly than in the global oceans.• The rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas during the past 25 years is thelargest ever measured in any previous 25-year period. It has been about 10 times faster than theaverage rate of increase during the past century and beyond.• Global sea surface temperature is projected to rise more slowly than atmospheric temperature.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201295
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<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on environmental systemsBox 3.1Mak<strong>in</strong>g the right observationsThe very large heat capacity of the oceans means that temperature <strong>change</strong>s must be measured with greatprecision <strong>and</strong> with high resolution, both of which have been difficult to achieve. The majority of the historicalglobal temperature <strong>change</strong>s come <strong>fr</strong>om Expendable Bathythermographs (XBTs) <strong>and</strong> Conductivity/Temperature/Depth (CTD) shipboard measurements. However, spatial <strong>and</strong> temporal sparseness of data, regional <strong>and</strong> temporalbiases <strong>in</strong> observations, <strong>and</strong> chang<strong>in</strong>g proportions of data <strong>fr</strong>om different <strong>in</strong>strument types, established the needfor a homogeneous global observ<strong>in</strong>g system. This need led to the implementation of the <strong>in</strong>ternational array ofArgo profil<strong>in</strong>g floats. Argo is a global array of 3 000 <strong>fr</strong>ee-drift<strong>in</strong>g profil<strong>in</strong>g floats that measure the temperature <strong>and</strong>sal<strong>in</strong>ity of the upper 2 000 m of the ocean (see Map 3.1). Temperature, sal<strong>in</strong>ity <strong>and</strong> velocity of the upper oceanare cont<strong>in</strong>uously monitored, <strong>and</strong> all data is made publicly available with<strong>in</strong> hours after collection. One of Argo'smost important contributions is a major improvement <strong>in</strong> estimates of OHC (von Schuckmann <strong>and</strong> Le Traon, 2011;Levitus et al., 2012).The ma<strong>in</strong> challenge for Argo is to ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> the global array for the next decades, which requires <strong>in</strong>ternationalcommitments to provide <strong>and</strong> deploy about 800 to 900 floats per year.Additional floats would be needed for more uniform sampl<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> for exp<strong>and</strong>ed coverage of polar regions,marg<strong>in</strong>al seas <strong>and</strong> the deep ocean below 2 000 m depth.In 2008, the project Euro-Argo started develop<strong>in</strong>g a <strong>Europe</strong>an <strong>in</strong><strong>fr</strong>astructure for Argo to the level where <strong>Europe</strong>anpartners have the capacity to support approximately one quarter of the global array, <strong>and</strong> to provide an additional50 floats per year for enhanced coverage <strong>in</strong> the <strong>Europe</strong>an <strong>and</strong> marg<strong>in</strong>al seas. The Euro-Argo project <strong>in</strong>cludesamong others Germany, France <strong>and</strong> the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, which are the major <strong>Europe</strong>an contributors to Argo.In 2012, the collaboration around Euro-Argo was formalised <strong>in</strong> a Research In<strong>fr</strong>astructure Consortium whichenables <strong>Europe</strong> to build <strong>and</strong> susta<strong>in</strong> its contribution to the global array while provid<strong>in</strong>g enhanced coverage <strong>in</strong> theNorth‐east Atlantic, Mediterranean <strong>and</strong> Black Seas.Map 3.1 Location of Argo floats <strong>in</strong> 201260 °N30 °N0 °30 °S60 °S60 °E 120 °E 180 ° 120 °W 60 °W 0 °Source: See http://www.argo.ucsd.edu <strong>and</strong> http://www.euro-argo.eu/About-us/The-Research-In<strong>fr</strong>astructure.94 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> 2012