Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Changes in the climate systemFigure 2.20 Maximum ice cover extent in the Baltic Sea (1719/1720–2010/2011)Maximum ice extent (km 2 )450 000400 000350 000300 000250 000200 000150 000100 00050 000Note:01720173017401750Annual176017701780179015-year moving average1800181018201830184018501860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea in the winters 1719/1720–2010/2011 (blue bars) and 15-year moving average(orange line).Source: Jouni Vainio, Finnish Meteorological Institute (updated from Seinä and Palosuo, 1996; Seinä et al., 2001).88 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on environmental systems3 Climate impacts on environmentalsystems3.1 Oceans and marine environment3.1.1 OverviewRelevanceThe oceans play a key role in the regulation ofclimate by transporting heat northward and bydistributing energy from the atmosphere into thedeep parts of the ocean. On the one hand, the GulfStream and its extensions, the north Atlantic currentand drift, influence European weather patterns andstorm tracks. The heat transported northward by theoceanic circulation impacts precipitation and windregimes over Europe. On the other hand, oceansare also affected by the climatic conditions of theatmosphere (see Section 2.2) and the cryosphere(see Section 2.3). The induced changes in physicalocean conditions, in turn, affect the marineecosystems.Selection of indicatorsThis section reviews changes in the followingphysical and biological indicators of oceans andmarine ecosystems in Europe's seas:• Ocean acidification;• Ocean heat content;• Sea surface temperature;• Phenology of marine species;• Distribution of marine species.Key messages: 3.1 Oceans and marine environment• Impacts of climate change are observed in all European seas, although the extent to which impactshave been documented in time and space varies among the seas.• The primary physical impact of climate change in European regional seas is increased sea surfacetemperature. Climate change is expected to impact the physical conditions differently in Europeanregional seas, and consequently biological impacts also vary depending on the region.• North-east Atlantic: Sea surface temperature and ocean heat content are increasing in all regions,although at different rates. Warming is projected to extend throughout the water column during the21st century. Sea surface temperature changes have already resulted in an increased duration of themarine growing season and in northward movement of marine zooplankton. Some fish species areshifting their distributions northward in response to increased temperatures.• Baltic Sea: Future climate change is projected to warm the Baltic Sea, to decrease its salinity, and todecrease sea ice extent by 50–80 % during the 21st century. These changes in physical variables willaffect the ecosystems of the Baltic Sea in many ways. For example, changes in salinity and deep wateroxygen levels are likely to impact cod fisheries by affecting the reproductive success of cod.• Mediterranean Sea: Temperature is projected to increase, and run-off to the Mediterranean Sea todecrease, thereby increasing salinity. Stratification is projected to remain largely constant because ofthe compensating effects of increasing temperature and increasing salinity on the density of sea water.Projected changes in storminess appear to be changing the mixing conditions for nutrients into thesurface layer in the central Mediterranean, leading to nutrient poor conditions. The observed invasionand survival of alien species has been correlated to the warming trend in sea surface temperature.Such invasions not only impact local ecosystems, they can also impact the activities of the internationalfishing fleet.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201289
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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