Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Changes in the climate systemIn the lowlands of western Europe, snow is not apermanent winter phenomenon — it may come andgo several times during the cold months. Decreasingsnow cover trends have been observed in, forexample, Britain (Perry, 2006), Germany (Schwarzet al., 2007), Poland (Bednorz, 2011) and Nordiccountries (Wilson et al., 2010). In general, snowconditions in these areas correlate strongly withlarge-scale circulation patterns as indicated by theNAO (Bednorz, 2011; Brown and Robinson, 2011).The snow mass (i.e. the amount of water thatthe snow contains) is another important variabledescribing seasonal snow. In the NorthernHemisphere, a 7 % decrease has been observedbetween 1982 and 2009 for March (Takala et al.,2011). An extension of this data focusing on EEAmember countries, excluding mountain areas, alsodemonstrates this decline (Figure 2.11).ProjectionsThe seasonal snow cover is likely to continueshrinking (Stewart, 2009). Map 2.11 showsprojections of changes in annual snow fall daysbased on a multi-model ensemble. The multi‐modelmean shows decreases in days with snow fallexceeding 1 cm across Europe. Days with snowfall above 10 cm show increases in large partsof northern Europe and decreases in most otherregions. There is, however, considerable uncertaintyin these projections due to large differences betweenthe upper and lower limits of the model projections(not shown here). Because snow cover is sensitive tosnowfall as well as temperature, increased snowfallwill not necessarily translate into more snow on theground (Räisänen and Eklund, 2011). A study hasprojected a reduced number of snow cover days innorthern Europe (defined as 55–70 °N, 4.5–30 °E)Figure 2.11 Trend in March snow mass in Europe (excluding mountain areas) (1980–2011)Anomaly (%)50-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°403060°2050°10050°– 1040°– 2040°– 30– 400 500 0° 1000 150010°km20°30°40°– 501980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Snow mass from GlobSnow SWE v1.230-year trend (– 8.9 % per decade)Snow coverSnow covered areasBare areasMountain areas (excluded)Outside coverageNote:Left: Anomalies for March snow mass and the 30-year linear trend in the EEA region (excluding mountain areas).Right: Snapshot of snow cover on 15 February 2009.Source: GlobSnow (http://www.globsnow.info) (Luojus et al., 2011).76 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Changes in the climate systemof up to 40–70 days in 2071–2100 compared tothe baseline period 1961–1990. The study used aRCM driven by an ensemble of 7 GCMS for 4 SRESemission scenarios (Kjellström et al., 2011). Theprojections depend on the emission scenario and theunderlying GCM simulation.Model projections of 21st century change in snowwater equivalent (SWE) in the Northern Hemisphereunder the SRES A1B emissions scenario suggestthat SWE increases in the coldest parts of theNorthern Hemisphere continents, but decreaseselsewhere (Räisänen, 2007). The multi‐modelmean from the CMIP5 modelling exercise projectschanges in March/April snow cover in the NorthernHemisphere during the 21st century of about 7 %and 27 % in a low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) anda high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), respectively(Brutel-Vuilmet et al., 2012). Despite the projecteddecrease in long-term mean SWE in the NorthernHemisphere, model simulations indicate occasionalwinters of heavy snowfall, but these becomeincreasingly uncommon towards the end ofthe 21st century. Significant reductions in snowmass in Europe are likely to occur in Switzerland(BAFU, 2012), the alpine range of Italy (Sonciniand Bocchiola, 2011), the Pyrenees (López-Morenoet al., 2009), the Turkish mountains (Özdoğan, 2011)and Balkan mountains (FAO, 2010). In these areasthe change can have dramatic effects as melt watercontributes up to 60–70 % of annual river flows.Map 2.11Projected changes in annual snowfall days-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°60°60°50°50°50°50°40°40°40°40°0 500 0° 1000 150010°km20°30°40°0 500 0° 1000 150010°km20°30°40°Projected changes in annual snowfall daysNote:– 25 to – 20– 20 to – 15– 15 to – 10– 10 to – 5– 5 to – 1– 1 to 11 to 5Multi-model mean of changes in annual snowfall days from 1971–2000 to 2041–2070 exceeding (A) 1 cm and (B) 10 cmbased on 6 RCM simulations for the emission scenario A1B.Source: Vajda et al., 2011.NodataOutsidecoverageClimate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201277
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 28 and 29: Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Page 33 and 34: IntroductionIt should be noted that
Page 35 and 36: IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
Page 37 and 38: Introduction1. develop and improve
Page 39 and 40: Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
Page 41 and 42: IntroductionThe next generation of
Page 44 and 45: Introductionimmigration will be low
Page 46 and 47: Introduction7. projection of a clim
Page 49 and 50: IntroductionThe term risk is also i
Page 51 and 52: Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Climate impacts on socio-economic s
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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