Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Changes in the climate systemReanalyses for the time span 1871 to 2008 suggestan increasing long-term trend in storminess acrossnorth-western Europe. Storminess towards the endof the 20th century reached unprecedented valuesin the north-eastern North Atlantic, the North Seaand the Baltic Sea region (Map 2.9) (Donat, Renggli,et al., 2011). However, somewhat different resultswere found in another reanalysis (Wang et al., 2011).ProjectionsThe simulation of extra-tropical cyclones in climatemodels remains a scientific challenge in spiteof significant recent progress. Climate changeprojections show no clear consensus in either thedirection of movement (poleward or equator-ward)or the intensity of extra-tropical cyclone activityin the North Atlantic region of western Europe(Meehl et al., 2007; Ulbrich et al., 2009; McDonald,2011). Earlier models showed some agreementon a future poleward shift in storm tracks, whichwould increase the frequency of the most intensewind events in higher latitudes (Gastineau andSoden, 2009). However, more recent projectionswith climate models that include a higher resolutionstratosphere show an equator-ward shift in theAtlantic storm track which could double thepredicted increase in winter rainfall over westernand central Europe compared to other climateprojections (McDonald, 2011; Scaife, 2011). It shouldbe noted that the measure used to identify 'stormtracks' is different to that for 'cyclone tracks', socaution should be exercised when comparing thesetwo measures.Several studies suggest decreases in the numberof storms in Europe but increases in the strongest,most damaging storms, in particular in northern andwestern Europe (Pinto et al., 2007, 2009; Debernardand Røed, 2008; Della-Marta and Pinto, 2009; Donatet al., 2010). A recent study involving ensemblesimulations with 9 GCM and 11 RCM projectsenhanced extreme wind speeds over northern partsof central and western Europe in most simulationsand in the ensemble mean, and a decrease inextreme wind speeds in southern Europe (Donat,Leckebusch, et al., 2011) (see Map 2.10).Map 2.10Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM and RCM ensembles-40°-20°0°20°40°60°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°60°60°50°50°40°40°30°0 -10° 500 1000 1500 0° km10°20°30°30°0 -10° 500 1000 1500 0° km10°20°30°Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM (left) and RCM (right) ensemblesMagnitude of change (ms -1 )Statistical significance above 0.95– 1.0 – 0.75 – 0.5 – 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.0Note:Ensemble mean of changes in extreme wind speed (defined as the 98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) forA1B (2071–2100) relative to 1961–2000. Left: based on 9 GCMs. Right: based on 11 RCMs. Coloured areas indicate themagnitude of change (unit: m s−1), statistical significance above 0.95 is shown by black dots.Source: Donat, Leckebusch, et al., 2011.72 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Changes in the climate system2.3 Cryosphere2.3.1 OverviewRelevanceThe cryosphere includes all permanent or seasonalsnow and ice on land, in the seas, rivers and lakes,and in the ground (permafrost). It is the secondlargest component of the climate system after theoceans with regard to mass and heat capacity.Because of its importance several recent publicationshave compiled relevant research on the cryosphere(Voigt et al., 2010; AMAP, 2011; Olsen et al., 2012).Snow and ice are important for the global climatesystem (see Section 2.1). Much of the sunlightthat hits these surfaces is reflected back into spaceinstead of warming the Earth. As melting of snowand ice expands to darker surfaces such as wateror ground, more heat is absorbed. These positiveice-temperature feedbacks are already acceleratingthe loss of sea ice in summer and autumn, whichhas resulted in higher winter near-surface airtemperatures in the Arctic (Screen and Simmonds,2010).Ice and snow are important for many ecosystems.Some species spend their entire life-cycle in areasdominated by the cryosphere whereas others areadapted to temporary snow and ice. Observedchanges in the cryosphere are already affectingspecies interactions and entire ecosystems (Postet al., 2009). Model studies also suggest positivevegetation-climate feedbacks, which accelerateclimate change. For example, the expansion ofdeciduous vegetation in the Arctic can contribute totemperature change by creating more dark surfaces(Swann et al., 2010).Mountain permafrost areas in the Alpine regionaffect both the landscape and ecosystems. Thepermafrost soils in boreal and Arctic ecosystemsstore almost twice as much carbon as is currentlypresent in the global atmosphere (Zimov et al.,2006). Permafrost thaw at high latitudes couldthus cause carbon emissions, which would furtheraccelerate climate change (Schuur et al., 2009;Shakhova et al., 2010; Avis et al., 2011).The cryosphere plays an important role in watermanagement. Two thirds of the world's freshwaterresources are frozen. Seasonal melting releaseswater during the warm season, thereby supportingwater supplies and hydropower. Changes in thecryosphere have further social and economicconsequences by affecting sea ice, the distributionof permafrost on land, and by contributing to globalsea-level rise. Such changes affect transport routes,building technology, tourism and recreation, andopportunities to exploit natural resources.Selection of indicatorsThe cryosphere provides easily observable signsof climate change over a wide range of time scales,from millennia to seasonal variations within a year.This section presents the following indicators, whichcover the main components of the cryosphere:• Snow cover: Snow covers a large area, but hasrelatively small volume. It's reflection of light isimportant for climatic conditions, it insulates thesoil in winter and it is an important temporarywater storage.• Greenland ice sheet: The continental ice sheet ofGreenland influences the global climate in manyKey messages: 2.3 Cryosphere• Almost all components in the cryosphere are decreasing, which is consistent with a warming climate.The fast reduction in Arctic Sea ice is particularly prominent.• Further reductions in the cryosphere are projected for the future. The projected changes vary acrossregions and indicators, and there are large uncertainties in some of the projections.• The melting of ice and snow and thawing of permafrost may cause positive feedbacks that canaccelerate climate change further.• Changes in the cryosphere affect global sea level, many ecosystems and their services, freshwatersupply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. The projected changes can increase naturalhazards and the risk of damage to infrastructure. At the same time they can create new opportunitiesfor navigation and the exploitation of natural resources.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201273
Page 3 and 4:
EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
Page 5:
ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
Page 10 and 11:
ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
Page 12 and 13:
ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
Page 14 and 15:
AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
Page 16:
AcknowledgementsComments from the E
Page 20:
Executive summaryThe causes of the
Page 23: Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 26 and 27: Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 28 and 29: Technical summaryMountain areasThe
Page 30: Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
Page 33 and 34: IntroductionIt should be noted that
Page 35 and 36: IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
Page 37 and 38: Introduction1. develop and improve
Page 39 and 40: Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
Page 41 and 42: IntroductionThe next generation of
Page 44 and 45: Introductionimmigration will be low
Page 46 and 47: Introduction7. projection of a clim
Page 49 and 50: IntroductionThe term risk is also i
Page 51 and 52: Changes in the climate system2 Chan
Page 53 and 54: Changes in the climate systemdammin
Page 55 and 56: Changes in the climate system2.1.4
Page 57 and 58: Changes in the climate systemSelect
Page 59 and 60: Changes in the climate systemPast t
Page 61 and 62: Changes in the climate systemEurope
Page 63 and 64: Changes in the climate systemSevera
Page 65 and 66: Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
Page 73: Changes in the climate systemclosel
Page 77 and 78: Changes in the climate systemPast t
Page 79 and 80: Changes in the climate systemof up
Page 81 and 82: Changes in the climate systemFigure
Page 85 and 86: Changes in the climate system2.3.5
Page 87 and 88: Changes in the climate systemBox 2.
Page 91 and 92: Climate impacts on environmental sy
Page 105: Climate impacts on environmental sy
Page 120: Climate impacts on environmental sy
Page 125 and 126:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139:
Page 142 and 143:
Page 144 and 145:
Page 146 and 147:
Page 148 and 149:
Page 150 and 151:
Page 152 and 153:
Page 154 and 155:
Page 156 and 157:
Page 158 and 159:
Page 160 and 161:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167:
Page 168 and 169:
Page 170 and 171:
Page 172 and 173:
Page 174 and 175:
Page 176 and 177:
Page 178 and 179:
Page 180 and 181:
Page 182 and 183:
Page 184 and 185:
Page 186 and 187:
Page 188 and 189:
Page 190 and 191:
Page 192 and 193:
Page 194 and 195:
Page 196 and 197:
Page 198 and 199:
Page 200 and 201:
Page 202 and 203:
Page 204 and 205:
Page 206 and 207:
Page 208 and 209:
Page 210 and 211:
Page 212 and 213:
Page 214 and 215:
Page 216 and 217:
Vulnerability to climate changein f
Page 218 and 219:
Vulnerability to climate change5.3
Page 220 and 221:
Vulnerability to climate changeMap
Page 222 and 223:
Vulnerability to climate changeasse
Page 224 and 225:
Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
Page 226 and 227:
Vulnerability to climate changeBox
Page 228 and 229:
Vulnerability to climate changeMap
Page 230 and 231:
Vulnerability to climate change5.5
Page 232 and 233:
Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
Page 234 and 235:
Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
Page 236 and 237:
Vulnerability to climate changeFina
Page 238 and 239:
Vulnerability to climate changefact
Page 240 and 241:
Indicator and data needsA key polic
Page 242 and 243:
Indicator and data needsWEI and res
Page 244 and 245:
Indicator and data needsDirectorate
Page 246 and 247:
Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
Page 248 and 249:
Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
Page 250 and 251:
Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
Page 252 and 253:
Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
Page 254 and 255:
Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
Page 256 and 257:
Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
Page 258 and 259:
ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
Page 260 and 261:
ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
Page 262 and 263:
References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
Page 264 and 265:
ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
Page 266 and 267:
Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
Page 268 and 269:
Referencescirculation models. Journ
Page 270 and 271:
Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
Page 272 and 273:
ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
Page 274 and 275:
ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
Page 276 and 277:
ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
Page 278 and 279:
ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
Page 280 and 281:
ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
Page 282 and 283:
ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
Page 284 and 285:
ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
Page 286 and 287:
ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
Page 288 and 289:
ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
Page 290 and 291:
Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
Page 292 and 293:
ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
Page 294 and 295:
Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
Page 296:
ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
Page 299 and 300:
ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
Page 301 and 302:
ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
Page 303 and 304:
European Environment AgencyClimate
show all

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?