Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Changes in the climate systemPast trendsAnnual precipitation records averaged acrossEurope show no significant changes since 1950according to the E-OBS dataset (Haylock et al., 2008),based on the European Climate Assessment dataset(Klok and Klein Tank, 2009). At the sub-continentalscale, the trend in precipitation is most significantin north-eastern and south-western Europe. Themajority of Scandinavia and the Baltic States haveobserved an increase in annual precipitation ofgreater than 14 mm per decade, with an increaseof up to 70 mm per decade in western Norway. Incontrast, annual precipitation has decreased in theIberian Peninsula, in particular in north-westernSpain and in northern Portugal (Map 2.5). Whilethere is some evidence linking land use, in particularforest cover, to local and regional precipitationpatterns (Millán, 2008), it is not clear if the relativelyminor land-use changes since 1950 have influencedthe observed precipitation trends.ProjectionsSeasonal mean precipitation values and inter-annualvariability is better reproduced by an ensembleof RCMs than by any single RCM (Beniston et al.,2007; Tapiador, 2010). Recent work, building onthe two EU-funded research projects PRUDENCE(Christensen et al., 2002) and ENSEMBLES (van derLinden and Mitchell, 2009) has shown that RCMshave a reasonably strong consensus across Europein predicting changes in seasonal average rainfall(Tapiador, 2010). These projections indicate a generalincrease in annual precipitation in northern Europeand a decrease in southern Europe. The change inannual mean between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100according to the ENSEMBLES project (van derLinden and Mitchell, 2009) varies between 10% and20 % in northern Europe and between – 5 to – 20 %in southern Europe and the Mediterranean (Map 2.6left). Projections for summer precipitation showa decrease over southern, central and northwestEurope, which can reach of up to 60 % in parts ofsouthern Europe. Precipitation is projected to remainconstant or to increase slightly in northeast Europe(van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009; Tapiador, 2010)(Map 2.6 right).Map 2.570N60N50N40N30N1 2001 000800600Note:Total precipitationDrier– 87.5– 7015W 0 15E 30E– 52.5– 35PRCPTOT (mm)Trends in annual precipitationacross Europe (1960–2012)Change in annual precipitation (PRCPTOT, mm/decade)– 17.5017.5Trend: – 35.99 mm per decade (– 59.30 to – 10.14)Trend: 30.10 mm per decade (12.60 to 46.56)3552.570Wetter87.51955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015The trends are calculated using a median of pairwiseslopes algorithm. Black dots represent high confidencein the sign of the long-term trend in the box (if the5th to 95th percentile slopes are of the same sign).Boxes which have a thick outline contain at leastthree stations. Area averaged annual time series ofpercentage changes and trend lines are shown beloweach map for one area in northern Europe (blueline, 5.6 to 16.9 °E and 56.2 to 66.2 °N) and one insouth‐western Europe (red line, 350.6 to 1.9 °E and36.2 to 43.7 °N).Source: HadEX dataset, updated with data from the ECA&Ddataset.66 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Changes in the climate systemMap 2.6Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between1961–1990 and 2071–2100Annual-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°Summer0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°60°60°50°50°50°50°40°40°40°40°0 500 0° 1000 1500 10° km20°30°40°0 500 0° 1000 1500 10° km20°30°40°Projected changes in precipitation(%)< – 30– 30 to – 20– 20 to – 15– 15 to – 10– 10 to – 5– 5 to 55 to 1010 to 1515 to 20> 20No dataNote:Projections are based on the ENSEMBLES project. They have been obtained from different regional climate models (RCMs)performing at 25 km spatial resolution with boundary conditions from five global climate models (GCMs), all using the IPCCSRES A1B emission scenario.Source: van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201267
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
Page 20: Executive summaryThe causes of the
Page 23: Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 26 and 27: Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 28 and 29: Technical summaryMountain areasThe
Page 30: Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
Page 33 and 34: IntroductionIt should be noted that
Page 35 and 36: IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
Page 37 and 38: Introduction1. develop and improve
Page 39 and 40: Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
Page 41 and 42: IntroductionThe next generation of
Page 44 and 45: Introductionimmigration will be low
Page 46 and 47: Introduction7. projection of a clim
Page 49 and 50: IntroductionThe term risk is also i
Page 51 and 52: Changes in the climate system2 Chan
Page 53 and 54: Changes in the climate systemdammin
Page 55 and 56: Changes in the climate system2.1.4
Page 57 and 58: Changes in the climate systemSelect
Page 59 and 60: Changes in the climate systemPast t
Page 61 and 62: Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Climate impacts on socio-economic s
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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