Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Changes in the climate systemBox 2.3A decade of European temperature extremesRecent years have seen an exceptionally large number of record-breaking and destructive heat waves in manyparts of the world (Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012). Several recent studies indicate that many, possibly most, ofthese heat waves would not have occurred without anthropogenic climate change. The five warmest summers inEurope in the last 500 years all occurred in the recent decade (2002–2011) (see Figure 2.9). In 2003, WesternEurope suffered its hottest summer by far for at least 500 years (Luterbacher et al., 2001; Dobrovolny et al.,2010; Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012), with temperatures in Switzerland topping the previous record by a full2.4 °C, equivalent to 5.4 standard deviations (Robine et al., 2008). Greece experienced its hottest summerin 2007, with summer temperatures in Athens exceeding the 1961–1990 mean by 3.3 °C, corresponding to3.7 standard deviations (Founda and Giannakopoulos, 2009). In 2010, central Russia suffered its worst heat wavesince records began, with the July temperature in Moscow beating the previous record by 2.5 °C.Figure 2.9 European summer temperatures for 1500–2010Frequency100summerEuropean summer temperature8020106020032002401695200619231902182120188820070– 2Decadal frequency9.006.754.50– 1 0 1 2Temperature (°C)2.250.001500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Note:The upper panel shows the statistical frequency distribution of European (35 °N, 70 °N, 25 °W, 40 °E) summerland‐temperature anomalies (relative to the 1970–1999 period) for the 1500–2010 period (vertical lines). The fivewarmest and coldest summers are highlighted. Grey bars represent the distribution for the 1500–2002 period with aGaussian fit shown in black. The lower panel shows the running decadal frequency of extreme summers, defined asthose with a temperature above the 95th percentile of the 1500–2002 distribution. A 10-year smoothing is applied.Source: Barriopedro et al., 2011. Reprinted with permission from AAAS.64 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Changes in the climate systemMap 2.4Projections of extreme high temperatures1961–1990 2021–2050 2071–21000 1500 km 0 1500 km 0 1500 kmNumber of combined tropical nights (> 20 °C) and hot days (> 35 °C)No data0 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 50Outside coverageNote:Extreme high temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June–August) days (TMAX > 35 °C)and tropical nights (TMIN > 20 °C). All projections are the average of six regional climate model (RCM) simulations of theEU ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961–1990, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100.Source: Fischer and Schär, 2010. © Nature Publishing Group. Reprinted with permission.2.2.4 Mean precipitationRelevancePrecipitation plays a vital role in allhuman‐environment systems and sectors, includingagriculture, water supply, energy production,tourism and natural ecosystems. Daily precipitationtotals are standard meteorological measures thathave been recorded systematically since the 1860s.However, despite longevity of the precipitationrecord in certain areas, the high spatial andtemporal variability of precipitation means thatthe climate change signal cannot be detected withcertainty in all European regions. Difficulties fordetecting a significant trend can arise from thesmall sampling area of rain gauges, calibrationerrors in instrumentation, erroneous measurementsduring weather conditions such as snow or gales,and from limited sampling of the spatial variabilityof precipitation, such as in mountainous areas.Therefore, observed and projected precipitationchanges should always be considered in the contextof interannual variability and the measurement ormodelling uncertainty.Key messages: 2.2.4 Mean precipitation• Annual precipitation trends since 1950 show an increase by up to 70 mm per decade in north-easternand north-western Europe and a decrease by up to 70 mm in some parts of southern Europe.• Seasonal precipitation trends show an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and adecrease in southern Europe, albeit with large interannual variations.• There is a robust signal from regional simulations across many parts of central and western Europeacross all seasons. However, many parts of Europe, such as eastern and southern Europe, lack modelconsensus on the direction of change.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201265
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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Page 20: Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Page 44 and 45: Introductionimmigration will be low
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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