Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Changes in the climate systemBox 2.3A decade of European temperature extremesRecent years have seen an exceptionally large number of record-breaking and destructive heat waves in manyparts of the world (Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012). Several recent studies indicate that many, possibly most, ofthese heat waves would not have occurred without anthropogenic climate change. The five warmest summers inEurope in the last 500 years all occurred in the recent decade (2002–2011) (see Figure 2.9). In 2003, WesternEurope suffered its hottest summer by far for at least 500 years (Luterbacher et al., 2001; Dobrovolny et al.,2010; Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012), with temperatures in Switzerland topping the previous record by a full2.4 °C, equivalent to 5.4 standard deviations (Robine et al., 2008). Greece experienced its hottest summerin 2007, with summer temperatures in Athens exceeding the 1961–1990 mean by 3.3 °C, corresponding to3.7 standard deviations (Founda and Giannakopoulos, 2009). In 2010, central Russia suffered its worst heat wavesince records began, with the July temperature in Moscow beating the previous record by 2.5 °C.Figure 2.9 European summer temperatures for 1500–2010Frequency100summerEuropean summer temperature8020106020032002401695200619231902182120188820070– 2Decadal frequency9.006.754.50– 1 0 1 2Temperature (°C)2.250.001500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Note:The upper panel shows the statistical frequency distribution of European (35 °N, 70 °N, 25 °W, 40 °E) summerland‐temperature anomalies (relative to the 1970–1999 period) for the 1500–2010 period (vertical lines). The fivewarmest and coldest summers are highlighted. Grey bars represent the distribution for the 1500–2002 period with aGaussian fit shown in black. The lower panel shows the running decadal frequency of extreme summers, defined asthose with a temperature above the 95th percentile of the 1500–2002 distribution. A 10-year smoothing is applied.Source: Barriopedro et al., 2011. Reprinted with permission from AAAS.64 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012