Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Changes in the climate systemMap 2.1Trend in annual temperatureacross Europe (1960–2012)Figure 2.8Projected changes in globalaverage temperature based onmulti-model simulations70N60N50NGlobal surface warming (°C)6.05.04.03.040N2.01.0+ 2 °C target0.030N121086Note:15W 0 15E 30EChange in annual mean temperature (TG, °C/decade)0 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50TG (°C)1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015Trend: 0.32 °C per decade (0.22 to 0.40)Trend: 0.34 °C per decade (0.21 to 0.44)Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least threestations and so are likely to be more representative ofthe grid box. High confidence in the long-term trend isshown by a black dot. (In the map above, this is thecase for all grid boxes.) Area averaged annual timeseries of percentage changes and trend lines are shownbelow each map for one area in northern Europe (greenline, 5.6 ° to 16.9 °E and 56.2 ° to 66.2 °N) and onein south-western Europe (purple line, 350.6 ° to 1.9 °Eand 36.2 ° to 43.7 °N).– 1.0Note:1900 2000 2100A2A1BB1Year 2000 constant concentrations20th centuryB1A1TB2A1BA2A1FlSolid lines are multi-model global averages ofsurface warming (relative to 1980–1999; add 0.6 °Cto estimate warming relative to the pre-industrialperiod) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown ascontinuations of the 20th century simulations. Shadingdenotes the ± 1 standard deviation range of individualmodel projections. The orange line is for an experimentwhere GHG concentrations were held constant at year2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the bestestimate (solid line within each bar) and the likelyrange assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios.The assessment of the best estimate and likely rangesin the grey bars includes the Atmosphere‐OceanGlobal Circulation Models (AOGCM) in the left partof the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy ofindependent models and observational constraints.Source: IPCC, 2007a.Source: ECA&D dataset (Klein Tank and Wijngaard, 2002).None of the SRES emissions scenarios includesspecific policies to limit GHG emissions. Therange results from the uncertainties in futuresocio‐economic development and in climate models.The EU and UNFCCC target of limiting globalaverage warming to not more than 2.0 °C abovepre‐industrial levels is projected to be exceededaround 2050 for all SRES scenarios considered here.The future projections show greatest warming overland (roughly twice the global average warming)and at high northern latitudes. These trends areconsistent with the observations during the latterpart of the 20th century (Solomon et al., 2007).Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs)have been developed recently to succeed the IPCCSRES emissions scenarios (see Section 1.5.1). RCPsaim to span the whole range of plausible emissionscenarios, including mitigation scenarios, until 2100.RCPs will be the basis of the climate projections inthe forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.60 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Changes in the climate systemSeveral studies have applied global climate modelsto estimate the warming associated with differentRCPs. These studies project an increase in globalmean temperature by 2100, relative to preindustriallevels (1850–1900), of 1.5–2.3 °C for the lowest RCP(RCP2.6) to 4.5–5.8 °C for the highest RCP (RCP8.5)(Arora et al., 2011; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Meehlet al., 2012). The RCPs have been extended until 2300by the so-called extended concentration pathways(ECPs). Simulations using the ECPs suggest bestestimates for global mean temperature increase by2300, relative to preindustrial levels, of 1.1 °C for theextension of RCP2.6 to 8.0 °C for the extension ofRCP8.5 (Meinshausen et al., 2011).Europe:The average temperature over Europe is projectedto continue increasing throughout the 21st century.According to results from the ENSEMBLES project(van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009) the annualaverage land temperature over Europe is projectedto increase by more than global land temperature.The annual temperature for Europe is projected toincrease by 1.0 °C to 2.5 °C (between periods2021–2050 and 1961–1990) and 2.5 °C to 4.0 °C(between periods 2071–2100 and 1961–1990).The warming is projected to be the greatest innorth‐eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter andover southern Europe in summer (Map 2.2). Note thatmaps about trends and projections are not directlycomparable because complex processes, variabilityand feedbacks mean that past trends cannot beassumed to continue at the same rate into the future.Map 2.2Projected changes in annual, summer and winter temperature across EuropeAnnual, 2021–2050Summer, 2021–2050Winter, 2021–205050°50°50°40°40°40°0°10°20°30°40°0°10°20°30°40°0°10°20°30°40°Annual, 2071–2100Summer, 2071–2100Winter, 2071–210050°50°50°40°40°40°0°10°20°30°40°0°10°20°30°40°0°10°20°30°40°Projected changes in annual, summer and winter temperature 2021–2050 (top) and 2071–2100 (bottom)0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5°C No dataNote:Projected changes in annual (left), summer (JJA; centre), and winter (DJF; right) near-surface air temperature (°C) for theperiod 2021–2050 (above) and 2071–2100 (below), compared to 1961–1990. Projections are based on the ENSEMBLESproject. They have been obtained from different regional climate models (RCMs) performing at 25 km spatial resolution withboundary conditions from five global climate models (GCMs), all using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.Source: van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201261
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
Page 12 and 13: ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
Page 14 and 15: AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
Page 16: AcknowledgementsComments from the E
Page 20: Executive summaryThe causes of the
Page 23: Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 26 and 27: Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 28 and 29: Technical summaryMountain areasThe
Page 30: Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
Page 33 and 34: IntroductionIt should be noted that
Page 35 and 36: IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
Page 37 and 38: Introduction1. develop and improve
Page 39 and 40: Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
Page 41 and 42: IntroductionThe next generation of
Page 44 and 45: Introductionimmigration will be low
Page 46 and 47: Introduction7. projection of a clim
Page 49 and 50: IntroductionThe term risk is also i
Page 51 and 52: Changes in the climate system2 Chan
Page 53 and 54: Changes in the climate systemdammin
Page 55 and 56: Changes in the climate system2.1.4
Page 57 and 58: Changes in the climate systemSelect
Page 59 and 60: Changes in the climate systemPast t
Page 61: Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Page 81 and 82: Changes in the climate systemFigure
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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