Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Changes in the climate systemMap 2.1Trend in annual temperatureacross Europe (1960–2012)Figure 2.8Projected changes in globalaverage temperature based onmulti-model simulations70N60N50NGlobal surface warming (°C)6.05.04.03.040N2.01.0+ 2 °C target0.030N121086Note:15W 0 15E 30EChange in annual mean temperature (TG, °C/decade)0 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50TG (°C)1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015Trend: 0.32 °C per decade (0.22 to 0.40)Trend: 0.34 °C per decade (0.21 to 0.44)Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least threestations and so are likely to be more representative ofthe grid box. High confidence in the long-term trend isshown by a black dot. (In the map above, this is thecase for all grid boxes.) Area averaged annual timeseries of percentage changes and trend lines are shownbelow each map for one area in northern Europe (greenline, 5.6 ° to 16.9 °E and 56.2 ° to 66.2 °N) and onein south-western Europe (purple line, 350.6 ° to 1.9 °Eand 36.2 ° to 43.7 °N).– 1.0Note:1900 2000 2100A2A1BB1Year 2000 constant concentrations20th centuryB1A1TB2A1BA2A1FlSolid lines are multi-model global averages ofsurface warming (relative to 1980–1999; add 0.6 °Cto estimate warming relative to the pre-industrialperiod) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown ascontinuations of the 20th century simulations. Shadingdenotes the ± 1 standard deviation range of individualmodel projections. The orange line is for an experimentwhere GHG concentrations were held constant at year2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the bestestimate (solid line within each bar) and the likelyrange assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios.The assessment of the best estimate and likely rangesin the grey bars includes the Atmosphere‐OceanGlobal Circulation Models (AOGCM) in the left partof the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy ofindependent models and observational constraints.Source: IPCC, 2007a.Source: ECA&D dataset (Klein Tank and Wijngaard, 2002).None of the SRES emissions scenarios includesspecific policies to limit GHG emissions. Therange results from the uncertainties in futuresocio‐economic development and in climate models.The EU and UNFCCC target of limiting globalaverage warming to not more than 2.0 °C abovepre‐industrial levels is projected to be exceededaround 2050 for all SRES scenarios considered here.The future projections show greatest warming overland (roughly twice the global average warming)and at high northern latitudes. These trends areconsistent with the observations during the latterpart of the 20th century (Solomon et al., 2007).Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs)have been developed recently to succeed the IPCCSRES emissions scenarios (see Section 1.5.1). RCPsaim to span the whole range of plausible emissionscenarios, including mitigation scenarios, until 2100.RCPs will be the basis of the climate projections inthe forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.60 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012