Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Changes in the climate systemEurope:The decadal average temperature over Europeanland areas increased by approximately 1.3 °C(± 0.11 °C) between pre-industrial times and thedecade of 2002 to 2011 (Figure 2.7 upper). Theinterannual temperature variability over Europe isgenerally much higher in winter (Figure 2.7 middle)than in summer. The relatively rapid warming trendsince the 1980s is most clearly evident in the summer(Figure 2.7 lower).Particularly large warming has been observedin the past 50 years over the Iberian Peninsula,across central and north-eastern Europe, and inmountainous regions. Over the past 30 years,warming was the strongest over Scandinavia,especially in winter, whereas the Iberian Peninsulawarmed mostly in summer (Haylock et al., 2008)(Map 2.1).ProjectionsGlobal:The global average temperature will continueto increase throughout the 21st century as aresult of projected further increases in GHGconcentrations (Figure 2.8). Forced by a range offuture possible emissions scenarios (IPCC SRESscenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000)), thecentral estimate for the warming averaged for thenear future (2011–2030) compared to 1980–1999 isbetween + 0.64 °C and + 0.69 °C (Solomon et al.,2007). By the mid‐century (2046–2065), projectedincreases of between + 1.3 °C and + 1.8 °C for thesame models and scenarios were noted, and by thelate 21st century (2090–2099), these ranged between+ 1.8 °C and + 4.0 °C. When model uncertainty isincluded, the likely range extends to 1.1 to 6.4 °C, asshown by the grey bars to the right of Figure 2.8.Figure 2.7European average temperature (1850–2011) over land areas for annual (upper),winter (middle) and summer (lower) periodsChange (°C)2Annual10– 121Winter0– 12Summer10– 11850 1900 1950 2000Met Office Hadley Centre and UEA Climatic Research UnitNOAA National Climatic Data CenterNASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNote: Datasets, pre-industrial periods and techniques are the same as for Figure 2.5.Source:1) Black line — HadCRUT3 from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit,baseline period 1850–1899 (Brohan et al., 2006). The grey area represents the 95 % confidence range.2) Red line — MLOST from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center,baseline period 1880–1899 (Smith et al., 2008).3) Blue line — GISSTemp from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for SpaceStudies, baseline period 1880–1899 (Hansen et al., 2010).Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201259